Uzbekistan - Mainland China Trade 2023 Q3: Widening Deficit

Key Market Takeaways: Uzbekistan - Mainland China Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Uzbekistan and Mainland China is marked by a widening trade deficit and volatile growth trends in Q3 2023.

• $2.73B deficit dominated by $3.30B Chinese imports, as Uzbek exports ($570.51M) fell 26.18% YoY despite import growth exceeding 100%.
• Resource-for-Tech exchange: Uzbekistan’s top exports (cotton, copper, fuels) cover 73.86% of trade, while China supplies machinery and tech (HS 84-85), per bilateral trade data.
• Asymmetric dependency: Uzbekistan relies on Chinese industrial inputs, while China secures raw materials—highlighting complementary but unequal value chain positions.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Uzbekistan-Mainland China Trade Trend in Q3 2023

Uzbekistan Export Performance: Shipments to Mainland China

• Total Volume: $570.51M in Q3 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY decline persisted, with September exports down 26.18% year-on-year.
  • Sharpest MoM drop in August (-52.09%), followed by a milder contraction in September (-8.51%).
• Key Volatility: August recorded the lowest export value ($142.55M) and steepest monthly decline.

Uzbekistan Import Performance: Sourcing from Mainland China

• Total Volume: $3.30B in Q3 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Strong YoY growth across all months (peaking at +157.73% in July), though momentum slowed by September (+107.95%).
  • July saw the highest monthly imports ($1.12B) and MoM surge (+73.03%), but September marked a pullback (-7.96% MoM).
• Key Volatility: July was the peak month, while September showed the first significant MoM dip.

Uzbekistan - Mainland China Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade deficit of $2.73B (Imports $3.30B > Exports $570.51M).
• Relationship Status: Heavy reliance on Chinese imports, with exports failing to offset inbound trade volume. The deficit widened YoY given import growth outpaced export declines.

Uzbekistan Import Trend from Mainland China 2023 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Uzbekistan Export Trend to Mainland China 2023 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Uzbekistan Mainland China Trade Records

Uzbekistan-Mainland China Top Trading Products in Q3 2023

Uzbekistan Export Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Sell to Mainland China

• Top Commodity: Cotton (HS 52) dominates exports, accounting for 28.48% of total trade value.
• Demand Driver: Mainland China imports raw cotton for textile manufacturing, reflecting its industrial processing needs.
• Concentration: The top three exports (cotton, copper, mineral fuels) make up 73.86% of trade, showing high reliance on raw materials.

Uzbekistan Import Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Buy from Mainland China

• Top Commodity: Machinery (HS 84) leads imports at 26.56%, followed by vehicles (HS 87) and electrical equipment (HS 85).
• Dependency Nature: Imports are heavily skewed toward industrial machinery and tech, indicating critical technology dependency for Uzbekistan’s infrastructure and manufacturing.

Uzbekistan - Mainland China Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity—Uzbekistan supplies raw materials (cotton, copper, fuels) while importing machinery and tech from Mainland China.
• Value Chain Position: Mainland China holds the higher value-add position, exporting complex manufactured goods, while Uzbekistan remains a supplier of low-processed commodities.

Import Analysis by Product: Mainland China to Uzbekistan (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Uzbekistan to Mainland China (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Uzbekistan-Mainland China Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Uzbekistan’s trade deficit with Mainland China is likely to persist in Q4 2023 and into 2024, driven by sustained demand for Chinese machinery and technology against stagnant raw material exports. While import growth may moderate from Q3’s peak, exports will remain under pressure due to declining cotton and mineral fuel shipments. Without structural shifts, Uzbekistan’s reliance on low-value commodity sales will deepen its trade imbalance. Traders should anticipate continued volatility, particularly in raw material pricing, as global supply chain fluctuations impact bilateral trade dynamics.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Export Markets: Reduce dependence on Mainland China by targeting alternative buyers for cotton and copper in Southeast Asia and Europe, mitigating export revenue declines.
• Secure Long-term Tech Contracts: Lock in favorable terms for critical machinery imports now, before potential tariff adjustments or supply chain disruptions inflate costs.
• Invest in Value-Added Processing: Shift from raw material exports to semi-finished goods (e.g., textile products from cotton) to capture higher margins and reduce trade deficit pressures.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Uzbekistan - Mainland China trade perform in 2023 Q3?

Uzbekistan exported $570.51M to Mainland China (YoY decline) and imported $3.30B (strong YoY growth), resulting in a widening trade deficit.

What are the top exports from Uzbekistan to Mainland China?

Cotton (HS 52), copper, and mineral fuels dominate, accounting for 73.86% of Uzbekistan’s exports to Mainland China.

What does Uzbekistan import from Mainland China?

Machinery (HS 84), vehicles (HS 87), and electrical equipment (HS 85) lead imports, reflecting Uzbekistan’s reliance on industrial tech.

What is the trade balance between Uzbekistan and Mainland China?

Uzbekistan recorded a $2.73B trade deficit in Q3 2023, with imports far exceeding exports. The gap widened YoY due to surging Chinese imports.