Uzbekistan - Kyrgyzstan Trade 2024 Q2: Surplus & Volatility

Key Market Takeaways: Uzbekistan - Kyrgyzstan Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan shows growth with high volatility in Q2 2024.

• Economic Pulse: Uzbekistan holds a $92.45M surplus, exporting $151.08M (2.6x imports) amid sharp monthly swings—June exports surged +68.58% YoY.
• Exchange Structure: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity defines Uzbekistan-Kyrgyzstan trade statistics: Uzbek electrical machinery (20.87% of exports) flows to Kyrgyzstan, while mineral fuels (33.56% of imports) move the other way.
• Strategic Interdependence: Uzbekistan dominates as a value-add exporter (finished goods), while Kyrgyzstan supplies critical raw materials (fuels, ores), reinforcing regional supply chain ties.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Uzbekistan-Kyrgyzstan Trade Trend in Q2 2024

Uzbekistan Export Performance: Shipments to Kyrgyzstan

• Total Volume: $151.08M in Q2 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • June saw a sharp YoY rebound (+68.58%), offsetting May’s steep decline (-44.07% YoY).
  • No trade policy updates to contextualize volatility.
• Key Volatility: June exports nearly doubled MoM (+95.63%), marking the quarter’s peak.

Uzbekistan Import Performance: Sourcing from Kyrgyzstan

• Total Volume: $58.63M in Q2 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Mixed YoY performance: May surged (+47.84%), but April and June contracted (-6.95% and -21.05% respectively).
• Key Volatility: May imports spiked 59.47% MoM before plummeting -51.07% in June.

Uzbekistan - Kyrgyzstan Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: $92.45M surplus for Uzbekistan (Exports $151.08M > Imports $58.63M).
• Relationship Status: Uzbekistan maintains a dominant net exporter role, with exports 2.6x higher than imports.

Uzbekistan Import Trend from Kyrgyzstan 2024 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Uzbekistan Export Trend to Kyrgyzstan 2024 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Uzbekistan Kyrgyzstan Trade Records

Uzbekistan-Kyrgyzstan Top Trading Products in Q2 2024

Uzbekistan Export Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Sell to Kyrgyzstan

• Top Commodity: Electrical machinery (HS 85) dominates with 20.87% share.
• Demand Driver: Kyrgyzstan's consumer market relies on Uzbek electrical goods, likely due to cost competitiveness or regional supply chains.
• Concentration: No single category dominates; the top 10 exports are diversified, with HS 85 leading at 20.87%.

Uzbekistan Import Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Buy from Kyrgyzstan

• Top Commodity: Mineral fuels (HS 27) account for 33.56% of imports, reflecting Kyrgyzstan's energy exports.
• Dependency Nature: Uzbekistan depends on Kyrgyzstan for energy security, given HS 27's high share.

Uzbekistan - Kyrgyzstan Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Uzbekistan exports tech-heavy goods (HS 85) while importing energy (HS 27) and ores (HS 26) from Kyrgyzstan.
• Value Chain Position: Uzbekistan holds higher value-add, exporting finished goods (electrical machinery, textiles), while Kyrgyzstan supplies raw materials (fuels, ores).

Import Analysis by Product: Kyrgyzstan to Uzbekistan (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Uzbekistan to Kyrgyzstan (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Uzbekistan-Kyrgyzstan Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Uzbekistan’s trade surplus with Kyrgyzstan is expected to widen in Q3 2024, driven by sustained demand for Uzbek electrical machinery (HS 85) and Kyrgyzstan’s reliance on energy exports (HS 27). However, volatility in monthly trade flows—evident in June’s sharp rebound—suggests potential supply chain disruptions or pricing fluctuations. The Uzbekistan-Kyrgyzstan trade forecast hinges on stabilizing energy imports while capitalizing on Kyrgyzstan’s growing consumer market for Uzbek manufactured goods. Long-term, the complementary exchange model (resource-for-tech) will likely deepen, but traders should prepare for short-term swings.

Strategic Moves

• Lock in Energy Contracts: Uzbek importers must secure long-term agreements for mineral fuels (HS 27) to mitigate price volatility and ensure stable energy supply.
• Expand Tech Exports: Uzbek exporters should target Kyrgyzstan’s underserved consumer electronics market, leveraging cost competitiveness to capture greater market share in HS 85.
• Diversify Export Routes: Given the erratic monthly trade patterns, both nations’ logistics firms must optimize cross-border corridors to reduce delays and costs, particularly for high-value electrical goods.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Uzbekistan - Kyrgyzstan trade perform in 2024 Q2?

Uzbekistan exported $151.08M to Kyrgyzstan (YoY rebound in June) and imported $58.63M (mixed YoY performance).

What are the top exports from Uzbekistan to Kyrgyzstan?

Electrical machinery (HS 85) dominates, accounting for 20.87% of Uzbekistan’s exports to Kyrgyzstan.

What does Uzbekistan import from Kyrgyzstan?

Mineral fuels (HS 27) are the top import, making up 33.56% of Uzbekistan’s purchases from Kyrgyzstan.

What is the trade balance between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan?

Uzbekistan holds a $92.45M surplus, with exports 2.6x higher than imports in Q2 2024.