Uzbekistan - Kyrgyzstan Trade 2024 Q1: $47.57M Surplus

Key Market Takeaways: Uzbekistan - Kyrgyzstan Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan shows volatility amid a strong Uzbek trade surplus in Q1 2024.

• Economic Pulse: Uzbekistan maintains a $47.57M surplus, exporting $98.34M (YoY declines) while importing $50.77M (mixed YoY performance).
• Exchange Structure: Uzbekistan - Kyrgyzstan trade statistics reveal resource-for-tech complementarity—Uzbek machinery/vehicles (45% of exports) flow west, while Kyrgyz energy/agricultural goods (63% of imports) move east.
• Strategic Interdependence: Kyrgyzstan’s reliance on Uzbek industrial goods and Uzbekistan’s energy/food imports signal asymmetric but critical supply chain linkages.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Uzbekistan-Kyrgyzstan Trade Trend in Q1 2024

Uzbekistan Export Performance: Shipments to Kyrgyzstan

• Total Volume: $98.34M in Q1 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY declines persisted across all months, with February (-60.02%) marking the steepest drop.
  • No significant policy shifts or trade disruptions were reported to explain the contraction.
• Key Volatility: February saw a sharp 48.53% MoM surge, though this followed a steep January decline (-54.5%).

Uzbekistan Import Performance: Sourcing from Kyrgyzstan

• Total Volume: $50.77M in Q1 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Mixed YoY performance: January (+65.37%) growth reversed sharply by March (-16.71%).
• Key Volatility: January imports halved MoM (-51.97%), while March rebounded (+13.48%).

Uzbekistan - Kyrgyzstan Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade surplus of $47.57M (Exports $98.34M > Imports $50.77M).
• Relationship Status: Uzbekistan maintains a strong net exporter position, though both flows show volatility.

Uzbekistan Import Trend from Kyrgyzstan 2024 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Uzbekistan Export Trend to Kyrgyzstan 2024 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Uzbekistan Kyrgyzstan Trade Records

Uzbekistan-Kyrgyzstan Top Trading Products in Q1 2024

Uzbekistan Export Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Sell to Kyrgyzstan

• Top Commodity: Machinery (HS 84) dominates with 17.13% share.
• Demand Driver: Kyrgyzstan relies on Uzbek machinery and vehicles (HS 87, 13.15%) for industrial and consumer markets.
• Concentration: No single category exceeds 50%, but machinery, textiles (HS 60), and vehicles collectively account for 45.01%.

Uzbekistan Import Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Buy from Kyrgyzstan

• Top Commodity: Mineral fuels (HS 27) lead at 43.68%, reflecting energy dependency.
• Dependency Nature: Heavy reliance on Kyrgyz energy (HS 27) and agricultural products (HS 01, 19.36%) signals food and energy security linkages.

Uzbekistan - Kyrgyzstan Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity—Uzbekistan supplies machinery/vehicles (higher value-add) while importing Kyrgyz energy/agricultural goods.
• Value Chain Position: Uzbekistan holds the upper hand with complex exports (machinery, vehicles) versus Kyrgyzstan’s raw material-focused shipments.

Import Analysis by Product: Kyrgyzstan to Uzbekistan (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Uzbekistan to Kyrgyzstan (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Uzbekistan-Kyrgyzstan Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Uzbekistan’s trade surplus with Kyrgyzstan is expected to persist in Q2 2024, but volatility in both exports and imports will likely continue. The sharp YoY declines in Uzbek exports suggest weakening demand or competitive pressures, while Kyrgyzstan’s fluctuating mineral fuel shipments indicate unstable energy supply chains. However, the structural complementarity—Uzbek machinery for Kyrgyz resources—provides a stable foundation. Traders should anticipate moderate recovery in machinery exports but brace for further swings in energy imports due to Kyrgyzstan’s supply-side uncertainties.

Strategic Moves

• Lock in Energy Contracts: Uzbek importers must secure long-term agreements with Kyrgyz fuel suppliers to mitigate price volatility and ensure stable energy inflows.
• Diversify Export Markets: Uzbek machinery and vehicle exporters should aggressively target alternative markets in Central Asia to reduce over-reliance on Kyrgyz demand.
• Invest in Agri-Tech Partnerships: Uzbek firms should collaborate with Kyrgyz agricultural producers to stabilize food imports and co-develop higher-value processed goods for re-export.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Uzbekistan - Kyrgyzstan trade perform in 2024 Q1?

Uzbekistan exported $98.34M to Kyrgyzstan, while imports totaled $50.77M. Both flows showed volatility, with exports declining YoY and imports displaying mixed performance.

What are the top exports from Uzbekistan to Kyrgyzstan?

Machinery (HS 84), vehicles (HS 87), and textiles (HS 60) dominate Uzbekistan’s exports to Kyrgyzstan, collectively accounting for 45.01% of shipments.

What does Uzbekistan import from Kyrgyzstan?

Mineral fuels (HS 27) and agricultural products (HS 01) lead Uzbekistan’s imports from Kyrgyzstan, reflecting energy and food security dependencies.

What is the trade balance between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan?

Uzbekistan recorded a trade surplus of $47.57M in Q1 2024, maintaining its strong net exporter position despite volatile trade flows.