Uzbekistan - Kyrgyzstan Trade 2023 Q2: Volatile Surplus Trends

Key Market Takeaways: Uzbekistan - Kyrgyzstan Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan shows sustained volatility with a dominant Uzbek trade surplus in Q2 2023.

• Economic Pulse: Uzbekistan holds a $102.57M trade surplus ($157.14M exports vs. $54.57M imports), but exports face sharp YoY declines (-35.5% in April, -65.5% in June).
• Exchange Structure: Uzbekistan-Kyrgyzstan trade statistics reveal a resource-for-consumer goods model—Uzbekistan supplies textiles (61% of exports) while importing Kyrgyz mineral fuels (36% of imports).
• Strategic Interdependence: Complementary but asymmetrical: Uzbekistan’s finished apparel meets Kyrgyz retail demand, while Kyrgyz energy supports Uzbek fuel security.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Uzbekistan-Kyrgyzstan Trade Trend in Q2 2023

Uzbekistan Export Performance: Shipments to Kyrgyzstan

• Total Volume: $157.14M in Q2 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY declines dominated (-35.49% in Apr, -24.49% in May, -65.54% in Jun), signaling sustained contraction.
• Key Volatility: May saw a 50.89% MoM surge, but June plunged -35.1%, reflecting erratic demand or supply disruptions.

Uzbekistan Import Performance: Sourcing from Kyrgyzstan

• Total Volume: $54.57M in Q2 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Mixed YoY: +4.37% in Apr, +60.09% in May (likely base effect), then -9.05% in Jun.
• Key Volatility: June imports dropped -8.37% MoM, while May’s 0.37% growth was marginal.

Uzbekistan - Kyrgyzstan Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade surplus of $102.57M (Exports $157.14M > Imports $54.57M).
• Relationship Status: Uzbekistan is a dominant net exporter, though export volatility suggests Kyrgyzstan’s demand is unstable.

Uzbekistan Import Trend from Kyrgyzstan 2023 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Uzbekistan Export Trend to Kyrgyzstan 2023 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Uzbekistan Kyrgyzstan Trade Records

Uzbekistan-Kyrgyzstan Top Trading Products in Q2 2023

Uzbekistan Export Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Sell to Kyrgyzstan

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS 61 (Articles of apparel, knitted), accounting for 26.81% of total exports to Kyrgyzstan.
• Demand Driver: Dominated by consumer goods (apparel, textiles), indicating Kyrgyzstan's retail market reliance on Uzbek manufacturing.
• Concentration: Top 2 categories (HS 61 and 60) make up 40.36% of exports, showing moderate concentration in textiles.

Uzbekistan Import Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Buy from Kyrgyzstan

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS 27 (Mineral fuels, oils), representing 36.09% of imports from Kyrgyzstan.
• Dependency Nature: Energy products dominate, highlighting Uzbekistan's fuel security dependency on Kyrgyz supplies.

Uzbekistan - Kyrgyzstan Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Consumer Goods Complementarity—Uzbekistan exports textiles (consumer demand) while importing energy (strategic resource).
• Value Chain Position: Uzbekistan holds higher value-add in apparel (finished goods), while Kyrgyzstan supplies raw materials (fuels, ores). Trade is asymmetrical but mutually beneficial.

Import Analysis by Product: Kyrgyzstan to Uzbekistan (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Uzbekistan to Kyrgyzstan (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Uzbekistan-Kyrgyzstan Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Uzbekistan’s trade surplus with Kyrgyzstan is likely to persist in Q3 2023, but export volatility signals underlying risks. The sharp YoY declines in Uzbek textile shipments (-35.5% to -65.5%) suggest weakening Kyrgyz demand or competitive pressure from alternative suppliers. Meanwhile, Kyrgyzstan’s energy exports to Uzbekistan (36.1% of imports) may stabilize if fuel prices remain elevated, but June’s -9.05% YoY dip indicates potential supply chain friction. Traders should brace for asymmetric recovery—textile exports could stagnate while mineral fuel imports face sporadic disruptions.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Export Markets: Uzbek apparel exporters must reduce reliance on Kyrgyzstan by targeting Kazakhstan or Russia, where textile demand is more stable.
• Lock In Fuel Contracts: Uzbek energy importers should negotiate long-term agreements with Kyrgyz suppliers to hedge against price swings and ensure steady mineral fuel inflows.
• Streamline Cross-Border Logistics: Both nations must address customs bottlenecks, particularly for textiles and fuels, to mitigate the erratic MoM trade swings (-35.1% in June exports, -8.37% in June imports).

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Uzbekistan - Kyrgyzstan trade perform in 2023 Q2?

Uzbekistan's exports to Kyrgyzstan totaled $157.14M, but saw YoY declines, while imports from Kyrgyzstan reached $54.57M with mixed YoY growth.

What are the top exports from Uzbekistan to Kyrgyzstan?

The top exports are HS 61 (Articles of apparel, knitted) and HS 60 (Textiles), accounting for 40.36% of total exports.

What does Uzbekistan import from Kyrgyzstan?

The top import is HS 27 (Mineral fuels, oils), making up 36.09% of imports, highlighting energy dependency.

What is the trade balance between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan?

Uzbekistan recorded a trade surplus of $102.57M, maintaining its dominant net exporter position despite export volatility.