Uzbekistan - Kyrgyzstan Trade 2024 Q3: Volatile Growth & Surplus

Key Market Takeaways: Uzbekistan - Kyrgyzstan Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan shows volatile growth with a strong Uzbek trade surplus in Q3 2024.

• Economic Pulse: Uzbekistan posted an $81.56M trade surplus ($152.52M exports vs. $70.96M imports), but exports saw sharp monthly swings (-52.11% MoM drop in September).
• Exchange Structure: Uzbekistan - Kyrgyzstan trade statistics reveal a resource-for-tech complementarity—Uzbekistan supplies electrical machinery (HS 85, 21.57%) while importing Kyrgyz mineral fuels (HS 27, 28.15%) and live animals (HS 01, 26.58%).
• Strategic Interdependence: The partnership is moderately integrated, with Uzbekistan holding higher value-add in manufactured exports versus Kyrgyzstan’s raw material focus.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Uzbekistan-Kyrgyzstan Trade Trend in Q3 2024

Uzbekistan Export Performance: Shipments to Kyrgyzstan

• Total Volume: $152.52M in Q3 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Volatile YoY performance: August surged (+58.76%), but July and September saw steep declines (-55.05% and -22.29%, respectively).
  • Key Volatility: September exports halved MoM (-52.11%), the sharpest quarterly drop. August’s 37.03% MoM spike was the high point.

Uzbekistan Import Performance: Sourcing from Kyrgyzstan

• Total Volume: $70.96M in Q3 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Mixed YoY trends: July imports grew (+43.32%), but August and September fell (-11.49% and -21.0%).
  • Key Volatility: July’s imports spiked 126.42% MoM, then dropped consecutively, with August posting a -31.43% decline.

Uzbekistan - Kyrgyzstan Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade surplus of $81.56M (Exports $152.52M > Imports $70.96M).
• Relationship Status: Uzbekistan maintains a strong net exporter role, though Q3 saw erratic export performance. Imports remain subdued, shrinking YoY in two of three months.

Uzbekistan Import Trend from Kyrgyzstan 2024 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Uzbekistan Export Trend to Kyrgyzstan 2024 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Uzbekistan Kyrgyzstan Trade Records

Uzbekistan-Kyrgyzstan Top Trading Products in Q3 2024

Uzbekistan Export Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Sell to Kyrgyzstan

• Top Commodity: Electrical machinery (HS 85) dominates at 21.57% of exports.
• Demand Driver: Kyrgyzstan's consumer market and industrial needs drive purchases of Uzbek electrical goods, machinery (HS 84, 10.77%), and textiles (HS 60, 7.02%).
• Concentration: No single category exceeds 50%, but HS 85-84-60 combined account for 39.36%, reflecting diversified but tech-leaning exports.

Uzbekistan Import Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Buy from Kyrgyzstan

• Top Commodity: Mineral fuels (HS 27) lead at 28.15%, followed by live animals (HS 01, 26.58%).
• Dependency Nature: Energy security (HS 27) and agricultural inputs (HS 01, 04) underscore reliance on Kyrgyzstan for raw materials.

Uzbekistan - Kyrgyzstan Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity—Uzbekistan exports tech/consumer goods (HS 85, 84) while importing energy (HS 27) and agricultural products (HS 01).
• Value Chain Position: Uzbekistan holds higher value-add with manufactured exports (e.g., HS 85, 84) versus Kyrgyzstan’s raw material focus (HS 27, 26).

Import Analysis by Product: Kyrgyzstan to Uzbekistan (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Uzbekistan to Kyrgyzstan (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Uzbekistan-Kyrgyzstan Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Uzbekistan’s trade with Kyrgyzstan is expected to stabilize in Q4 2024, with moderate export recovery driven by sustained demand for electrical machinery (HS 85) and textiles (HS 60). However, volatility risks persist due to fluctuating mineral fuel (HS 27) imports from Kyrgyzstan, which could disrupt supply chains. The Uzbekistan-Kyrgyzstan trade forecast suggests a cautious expansion, contingent on smoother logistics and price stabilization in raw materials. Long-term growth hinges on Uzbekistan’s ability to maintain its high-value export advantage while securing reliable energy inflows.

Strategic Moves

• Lock in Energy Contracts: Uzbek importers should negotiate long-term agreements for mineral fuels (HS 27) to mitigate price swings and ensure stable industrial inputs.
• Diversify Export Markets: Uzbek exporters must reduce reliance on Kyrgyz demand by targeting regional markets for machinery (HS 84-85) to cushion against sudden downturns.
• Streamline Cross-Border Trade: Both governments should accelerate customs digitization and reduce bottlenecks, particularly for high-volume goods like textiles and live animals (HS 01, 60).

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Uzbekistan - Kyrgyzstan trade perform in 2024 Q3?

Uzbekistan exported $152.52M to Kyrgyzstan and imported $70.96M, with volatile YoY growth—August surged (+58.76%) while July and September declined sharply (-55.05% and -22.29%).

What are the top exports from Uzbekistan to Kyrgyzstan?

Electrical machinery (HS 85) dominates at 21.57%, followed by machinery (HS 84, 10.77%) and textiles (HS 60, 7.02%), reflecting a tech-leaning export profile.

What does Uzbekistan import from Kyrgyzstan?

Mineral fuels (HS 27) lead at 28.15%, with live animals (HS 01, 26.58%) as the second-largest import, highlighting reliance on energy and agricultural inputs.

What is the trade balance between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan?

Uzbekistan recorded a trade surplus of $81.56M, maintaining its net exporter role despite erratic export performance in Q3 2024.