Uzbekistan - Kazakhstan Trade 2023 Whole Year: Deficit-Driven Exchange

Key Market Takeaways: Uzbekistan - Kazakhstan Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan remains heavily skewed toward imports, with volatile growth trends in 2023.

• Deficit-Driven Trade: Uzbekistan recorded a $1.73B trade deficit with Kazakhstan, driven by $2.99B in imports (mostly cereals and raw materials) versus $1.26B in exports (primarily vehicles and machinery).
• Resource-for-Consumer Goods Exchange: Uzbekistan - Kazakhstan trade statistics reveal a complementary structure—Uzbekistan supplies finished goods (HS 87, 84) while relying on Kazakh agricultural and industrial inputs (HS 10, 72).
• Asymmetric Dependency: Uzbekistan’s export growth faltered in H2 2023, deepening its reliance on Kazakh staples and raw materials, with limited value-chain integration.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Uzbekistan-Kazakhstan Trade Trend in Whole Year 2023

Uzbekistan Export Performance: Shipments to Kazakhstan

• Total Volume: $1.26B in 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Mixed YoY performance: Strong growth in Q1 (Feb: +34.58%, Mar: +56.94%) but sharp declines in H2 (Jul: -22.11%, Dec: -25.94%).
  • No specific news to contextualize trends.
• Key Volatility:
  • February saw the highest MoM surge (+96.6%), while December recorded the steepest drop (-25.05% MoM).

Uzbekistan Import Performance: Sourcing from Kazakhstan

• Total Volume: $2.99B in 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Predominantly negative YoY trends (7 of 12 months saw declines), with steepest drops in Jul (-29.22%) and Oct (-22.0%).
  • May (+23.58% YoY) and Jan (+34.58% YoY) were outliers.
• Key Volatility:
  • June imports collapsed (-37.08% MoM), while August rebounded sharply (+41.26% MoM).

Uzbekistan - Kazakhstan Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: $1.73B trade deficit (Imports exceeded exports by $1.73B).
• Relationship Status: Uzbekistan remains heavily dependent on Kazakh imports, with no sustained export growth to offset the deficit.

Uzbekistan Import Trend from Kazakhstan 2023 Whole Year (Source: yTrade)**

Uzbekistan Export Trend to Kazakhstan 2023 Whole Year (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Uzbekistan Kazakhstan Trade Records

Uzbekistan-Kazakhstan Top Trading Products in Whole Year 2023

Uzbekistan Export Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Sell to Kazakhstan

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS Code 87 (Vehicles, excluding railway) at 30.53% of total exports.
• Demand Driver: Kazakhstan imports consumer goods like vehicles and apparel (HS 61), indicating a focus on serving its domestic market.
• Concentration: The top two categories (HS 87 and 84) account for 46.37% of exports, showing moderate concentration.

Uzbekistan Import Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Buy from Kazakhstan

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS Code 10 (Cereals) at 27.17% of total imports.
• Dependency Nature: Dominated by agricultural products (HS 10, 11, 02) and raw materials (HS 72, 27, 26), reflecting food security and industrial input dependency.

Uzbekistan - Kazakhstan Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Consumer Goods Complementarity—Uzbekistan supplies vehicles and machinery (HS 87, 84) while importing cereals and metals (HS 10, 72).
• Value Chain Position: Uzbekistan holds a higher value-add position, exporting finished goods (vehicles) versus Kazakhstan’s raw materials (cereals, ores).

Import Analysis by Product: Kazakhstan to Uzbekistan (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Uzbekistan to Kazakhstan (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Uzbekistan-Kazakhstan Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast for Uzbekistan-Kazakhstan Trade

Uzbekistan’s trade deficit with Kazakhstan is likely to persist in 2024, driven by continued reliance on Kazakh agricultural and raw material imports. While Uzbek vehicle and machinery exports (HS 87, 84) show potential, their volatile performance—especially the sharp H2 2023 declines—suggests demand fluctuations may hinder sustained growth. However, Kazakhstan’s steady need for consumer goods could stabilize Uzbek exports if supply chain inefficiencies are addressed. Traders should prepare for uneven monthly trade flows, with potential rebounds in Q1 followed by mid-year softening.

Strategic Moves for Traders & Policymakers

• Diversify Import Sources: Reduce dependency on Kazakh cereals (HS 10) by exploring alternative suppliers in Russia or Turkey to mitigate price volatility and supply disruptions.
• Boost Export Competitiveness: Target Kazakh demand for consumer goods by improving production efficiency and marketing Uzbek vehicles (HS 87) and apparel (HS 61) as cost-competitive alternatives to Chinese imports.
• Lock In Long-Term Contracts: Secure fixed-price agreements for critical Kazakh raw materials (HS 72, 27) to hedge against commodity market swings and ensure stable industrial input costs.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Uzbekistan - Kazakhstan trade perform in 2023 Whole Year?

Uzbekistan exported $1.26B to Kazakhstan but imported $2.99B, resulting in mixed growth trends—strong Q1 gains offset by H2 declines.

What are the top exports from Uzbekistan to Kazakhstan?

The top exports are HS Code 87 (Vehicles, excluding railway) and HS Code 84 (Machinery), accounting for 46.37% of total exports.

What does Uzbekistan import from Kazakhstan?

Uzbekistan primarily imports HS Code 10 (Cereals), along with other agricultural products and raw materials like metals and ores.

What is the trade balance between Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan?

Uzbekistan recorded a $1.73B trade deficit with Kazakhstan, driven by higher imports of agricultural and industrial inputs.