Uzbekistan - Iran Trade 2024 Q1: Widening Deficit
Key Market Takeaways: Uzbekistan - Iran Trade
The bilateral trade relationship between Uzbekistan and Iran shows volatile swings and a widening deficit in Q1 2024.
- Economic Pulse: Uzbekistan runs a $27.33M trade deficit with Iran, with total trade at $100.71M (exports: $36.69M, imports: $64.02M). Both sides saw sharp declines—exports collapsed -68.61% YoY in March, while imports fell -38.85% YoY.
- Exchange Structure: Uzbekistan - Iran trade statistics reveal a resource-for-industrial input dynamic: Cotton (69.4% of exports) flows to Iran for processing, while Uzbekistan imports plastics (25.8%) and fruits (25.5%).
- Strategic Interdependence: Complementary but imbalanced—Iran captures higher value-add with manufactured goods, while Uzbekistan remains locked in a commodity-export role.
This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.
Uzbekistan-Iran Trade Trend in Q1 2024
Uzbekistan Export Performance: Shipments to Iran
- Total Volume: $36.69M in Q1 2024.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- Volatile YoY performance: +105.12% surge in January, but a sharp -68.61% collapse in March.
- No specific trade news to explain the extreme swings.
- Key Volatility: March saw a -44.75% MoM drop, the steepest monthly decline.
Uzbekistan Import Performance: Sourcing from Iran
- Total Volume: $64.02M in Q1 2024.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- Consistent YoY contraction: -25.15% in January, worsening to -38.85% by March.
- Key Volatility: February had the highest value ($24.12M), but March plunged -22.13% MoM.
Uzbekistan - Iran Trade Balance & Market Dynamics
- Net Position: Trade deficit of $27.33M (Imports exceed exports).
- Relationship Status: Uzbekistan remains a net importer from Iran, with declining trade volumes on both sides.
Uzbekistan Import Trend from Iran 2024 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 21.11M | -16.76% | -25.15% |
| Feb | 24.12M | 14.28% | -26.87% |
| Mar | 18.78M | -22.13% | -38.85% |
| Total | 64.02M | - | - |
Uzbekistan Export Trend to Iran 2024 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 14.95M | -13.31% | 105.12% |
| Feb | 14.00M | -6.39% | 38.46% |
| Mar | 7.73M | -44.75% | -68.61% |
| Total | 36.69M | - | - |
Get Historical Uzbekistan Iran Trade Records
Uzbekistan-Iran Top Trading Products in Q1 2024
Uzbekistan Export Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Sell to Iran
- Top Commodity: Cotton (HS 52) dominates exports, accounting for 69.39% of total value.
- Demand Driver: Iran likely uses Uzbek cotton for textile manufacturing, indicating industrial processing demand.
- Concentration: Extreme reliance on cotton, with the top 3 commodities (HS 52, 31, 50) making up 85.3% of exports.
Uzbekistan Import Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Buy from Iran
- Top Commodity: Plastics (HS 39) lead imports at 25.79%, followed closely by edible fruits (HS 08) at 25.49%.
- Dependency Nature: Mixed profile—plastics suggest industrial inputs, while fruits point to food supply needs. No single critical dependency stands out.
Uzbekistan - Iran Trade Relationship Dynamics
- The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Industrial Input Complementarity. Uzbekistan exports raw materials (cotton, minerals) and imports processed goods (plastics, machinery).
- Value Chain Position: Iran holds higher value-add, supplying manufactured products (HS 39, 84) versus Uzbekistan’s commodity-heavy exports. Trade skew reflects Iran’s industrial capacity.
Import Analysis by Product: Iran to Uzbekistan (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 39 | 16.51M | 25.79% |
| 08 | 16.32M | 25.49% |
| 84 | 5.41M | 8.45% |
| 72 | 4.03M | 6.30% |
| 28 | 4.03M | 6.29% |
| 34 | 3.31M | 5.18% |
| 23 | 1.57M | 2.45% |
| 29 | 1.47M | 2.29% |
| 69 | 1.39M | 2.17% |
| 07 | 1.13M | 1.76% |
Export Analysis by Product: Uzbekistan to Iran (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 52 | 25.46M | 69.39% |
| 31 | 3.11M | 8.48% |
| 50 | 2.73M | 7.43% |
| 07 | 2.32M | 6.32% |
| 28 | 1.60M | 4.36% |
| 25 | 922.83K | 2.52% |
| 08 | 256.76K | 0.70% |
| 10 | 101.17K | 0.28% |
| 84 | 71.00K | 0.19% |
| 63 | 41.97K | 0.11% |
Check Detailed Uzbekistan-Iran Trade HS Code Breakdown
Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations
Forecast
Uzbekistan’s trade with Iran in Q1 2024 reveals volatile export growth and consistent import contraction, signaling near-term uncertainty. The extreme swings in cotton exports—Uzbekistan’s dominant commodity—suggest supply chain disruptions or demand fluctuations in Iran’s textile sector. With Iran’s industrial imports (plastics, machinery) still outpacing Uzbekistan’s commodity-driven exports, the trade deficit will likely persist unless Uzbekistan diversifies its export basket. Expect Q2 trade volumes to remain subdued, with potential recovery hinging on stabilizing cotton demand and Iran’s economic conditions.
Strategic Moves
- Diversify Export Offerings: Reduce reliance on cotton by promoting secondary commodities (e.g., minerals, processed textiles) to mitigate volatility and capture higher-value segments of Iran’s market.
- Lock in Long-Term Contracts: Uzbek cotton suppliers should secure multi-quarter agreements with Iranian manufacturers to stabilize revenue streams amid erratic monthly demand swings.
- Explore Substitution for Critical Imports: Uzbekistan’s reliance on Iranian plastics and fruits exposes it to supply risks. Traders should scout alternative suppliers in Central Asia or Turkey to dilute dependency.
Bottom Line: The Uzbekistan-Iran trade relationship is imbalanced but fixable. Traders must act now to hedge against volatility and rebalance the exchange.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Uzbekistan - Iran trade perform in 2024 Q1?
Uzbekistan exported $36.69M to Iran but faced volatile growth, while imports from Iran totaled $64.02M, showing consistent YoY declines.
What are the top exports from Uzbekistan to Iran?
Cotton (HS 52) dominates, making up 69.39% of exports, followed by minerals (HS 31) and silk (HS 50).
What does Uzbekistan import from Iran?
Top imports include plastics (HS 39) and edible fruits (HS 08), each contributing around 25% of total import value.
What is the trade balance between Uzbekistan and Iran?
Uzbekistan recorded a trade deficit of $27.33M, with imports exceeding exports, and the gap widened due to declining trade volumes.
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