Uzbekistan - Kazakhstan Trade 2023 Q1: Deficit Widens

Key Market Takeaways: Uzbekistan - Kazakhstan Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan shows growth in exports but a persistent deficit in Q1 2023.

• Economic Pulse: Uzbekistan posted a $534.03M trade deficit with Kazakhstan, driven by $794.02M in imports (down YoY) versus $259.99M in exports (up sharply in February/March).
• Exchange Structure: Uzbekistan - Kazakhstan trade statistics reveal a resource-for-tech complementarity—Uzbekistan exports vehicles (26.88% of exports) while relying on Kazakh cereals (33.89% of imports) for food security.
• Strategic Interdependence: Uzbekistan holds a higher value-add position (exporting manufactured goods), but heavy reliance on Kazakh staples signals vulnerability.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Uzbekistan-Kazakhstan Trade Trend in Q1 2023

Uzbekistan Export Performance: Shipments to Kazakhstan

• Total Volume: $259.99M in Q1 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth surged in February (+34.58%) and March (+56.94%), offsetting a mild decline in January (-1.96%).
  • No specific trade news to explain volatility.
• Key Volatility: February saw a sharp 96.6% MoM jump, followed by a sustained 34.53% rise in March.

Uzbekistan Import Performance: Sourcing from Kazakhstan

• Total Volume: $794.02M in Q1 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY started strong (+34.58% in January) but turned negative in February (-3.55%) and March (-6.86%).
• Key Volatility: January recorded the highest value ($274.11M) and a steep 12.53% MoM drop.

Uzbekistan - Kazakhstan Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade deficit of $534.03M (Imports exceeded exports by this margin).
• Relationship Status: Heavy reliance on Kazakh imports, with exports growing but insufficient to offset the gap.

Uzbekistan Import Trend from Kazakhstan 2023 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Uzbekistan Export Trend to Kazakhstan 2023 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Uzbekistan Kazakhstan Trade Records

Uzbekistan-Kazakhstan Top Trading Products in Q1 2023

Uzbekistan Export Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Sell to Kazakhstan

• Top Commodity: Vehicles (HS 87) dominate exports, accounting for 26.88% of total exports to Kazakhstan.
• Demand Driver: Kazakhstan's consumer market absorbs Uzbek vehicles, indicating demand for affordable transportation.
• Concentration: Trade is moderately concentrated, with the top two categories (HS 87 and HS 84) making up 43.33% of exports.

Uzbekistan Import Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Buy from Kazakhstan

• Top Commodity: Cereals (HS 10) lead imports, capturing 33.89% of total imports from Kazakhstan.
• Dependency Nature: Uzbekistan relies on Kazakhstan for staple food supplies, highlighting a food security dependency.

Uzbekistan - Kazakhstan Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Uzbekistan exports vehicles and machinery (higher-value goods) while importing agricultural products and raw materials (lower-value goods).
• Value Chain Position: Uzbekistan holds the higher value-add position, exporting manufactured goods (HS 87, 84) against Kazakhstan's primary commodities (HS 10, 72).

Import Analysis by Product: Kazakhstan to Uzbekistan (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Uzbekistan to Kazakhstan (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Uzbekistan-Kazakhstan Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Uzbekistan’s trade with Kazakhstan is poised for moderate export growth in the coming quarters, driven by sustained demand for vehicles (HS 87) and machinery (HS 84). However, the persistent trade deficit ($534.03M) signals vulnerability, especially if Kazakhstan’s cereal exports (HS 10) remain volatile. Without policy intervention, Uzbekistan’s reliance on Kazakh food imports may deepen, while export gains could be offset by import costs. Expect a tightening trade balance if export growth slows or import prices rise.

Strategic Moves

• Expand Export Diversification: Uzbekistan must reduce reliance on vehicle exports by promoting secondary high-value sectors (e.g., textiles, chemicals) to mitigate concentration risks.
• Secure Long-term Grain Contracts: Given Kazakhstan’s dominance in cereals (HS 10), Uzbek importers should lock in fixed-price agreements to stabilize food supply costs.
• Leverage Logistics Upgrades: Traders must capitalize on regional transport corridors (e.g., Middle Corridor) to cut transit times and costs, boosting competitiveness for Uzbek exports.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Uzbekistan - Kazakhstan trade perform in 2023 Q1?

Uzbekistan's exports to Kazakhstan grew to $259.99M, with strong YoY growth in February and March, while imports from Kazakhstan totaled $794.02M, showing a decline in February and March.

What are the top exports from Uzbekistan to Kazakhstan?

The top exports are Vehicles (HS 87) and Machinery (HS 84), together accounting for 43.33% of total exports.

What does Uzbekistan import from Kazakhstan?

Uzbekistan primarily imports Cereals (HS 10) from Kazakhstan, making up 33.89% of total imports, highlighting a dependency on food supplies.

What is the trade balance between Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan?

Uzbekistan recorded a trade deficit of $534.03M in Q1 2023, with imports significantly exceeding exports.