Uzbekistan - India Trade 2024 Q1: Deficit & Volatility

Key Market Takeaways: Uzbekistan - India Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Uzbekistan and India is marked by extreme volatility and structural asymmetry in Q4 2023.

• Deficit-Driven Trade: Uzbekistan posted a $185.62M trade deficit with India, importing $213.97M (mainly pharmaceuticals) while exporting just $28.35M (82.7% raw copper). Volatility spiked with a 1,490% YoY export surge in October—likely a data anomaly.
• Resource-for-Tech Exchange: Uzbekistan - India trade statistics reveal a lopsided raw materials-for-manufactured goods dynamic. India supplies high-value pharmaceuticals (48.09% of imports), while Uzbekistan’s exports remain undiversified.
• Complementary but Unbalanced: The partnership hinges on India’s advanced manufacturing and Uzbekistan’s raw materials, but the deficit highlights dependency risks for Tashkent.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Uzbekistan-India Trade Trend in Q4 2023

Uzbekistan Export Performance: Shipments to India

• Total Volume: $28.35M in Q4 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Extreme volatility: October saw a staggering 1,490.66% YoY surge ($25.17M), followed by a -93.28% MoM collapse in November ($1.69M). December continued the decline (-50.88% YoY).
  • No specific trade news to explain the wild swings, but the October spike suggests a possible one-off shipment or data anomaly.

Uzbekistan Import Performance: Sourcing from India

• Total Volume: $213.97M in Q4 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Strong YoY growth in October (+39.08%) and November (+17.75%), but momentum faded in December (+6.96% YoY).
  • MoM volatility: October surged 36.54%, then dropped -15.91% in December, indicating potential year-end demand contraction.

Uzbekistan - India Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade Deficit of $185.62M (Imports $213.97M > Exports $28.35M).
• Relationship Status: Uzbekistan remains heavily dependent on imports from India, with exports failing to offset inbound trade despite October’s anomalous spike. The deficit underscores structural trade asymmetry.

Uzbekistan Import Trend from India 2023 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Uzbekistan Export Trend to India 2023 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Uzbekistan India Trade Records

Uzbekistan-India Top Trading Products in Q4 2023

Uzbekistan Export Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Sell to India

• Top Commodity: HS Code 74 (Copper and articles thereof) dominates with 82.70% share.
• Demand Driver: India likely uses Uzbek copper for industrial processing, given its raw material nature.
• Concentration: Extreme reliance on one category (82.70%), indicating minimal export diversification.

Uzbekistan Import Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Buy from India

• Top Commodity: HS Code 30 (Pharmaceutical products) accounts for 48.09% of imports.
• Dependency Nature: Critical technology dependency, as pharmaceuticals require advanced manufacturing capabilities.

Uzbekistan - India Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Uzbekistan supplies raw copper; India provides high-value pharmaceuticals and machinery.
• Value Chain Position: India holds the higher value-add position, exporting complex goods (pharmaceuticals, machinery) versus Uzbekistan’s raw material exports.

Import Analysis by Product: India to Uzbekistan (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Uzbekistan to India (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Uzbekistan-India Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Uzbekistan-India trade is likely to remain volatile in the near term, with Uzbekistan’s export performance hinging on erratic copper shipments while imports of Indian pharmaceuticals sustain steady demand. The structural deficit will persist unless Uzbekistan diversifies its export basket beyond raw materials. However, India’s growing industrial sector could drive long-term copper demand, offering Uzbek exporters a narrow window to stabilize shipments through strategic contracts.

Strategic Moves

• Lock in Copper Contracts: Uzbek exporters must secure multi-year agreements with Indian buyers to mitigate wild monthly fluctuations and stabilize revenue streams.
• Diversify Exports Beyond Raw Materials: Uzbekistan should prioritize developing value-added industries (e.g., processed metals, textiles) to reduce reliance on unrefined copper and balance the trade deficit.
• Strengthen Pharma Supply Chains: Indian pharmaceutical exporters should explore joint ventures in Uzbekistan to localize production, cutting costs and solidifying market share amid rising regional competition.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Uzbekistan - India trade perform in 2023 Q4?

Uzbekistan's exports to India totaled $28.35M, showing extreme volatility with a 1,490.66% YoY surge in October but sharp declines afterward. Imports from India reached $213.97M, with strong YoY growth early in the quarter but slowing by December.

What are the top exports from Uzbekistan to India?

The top export is HS Code 74 (Copper and articles thereof), accounting for 82.70% of Uzbekistan's shipments to India, reflecting heavy reliance on raw material exports.

What does Uzbekistan import from India?

The primary import is HS Code 30 (Pharmaceutical products), making up 48.09% of total imports, highlighting Uzbekistan's dependency on India for advanced medical goods.

What is the trade balance between Uzbekistan and India?

Uzbekistan recorded a trade deficit of $185.62M in Q4 2023, as imports from India ($213.97M) far exceeded exports ($28.35M), underscoring structural trade asymmetry.