Uzbekistan - India Trade 2023 Q3: Widening Deficit & Volatility

Key Market Takeaways: Uzbekistan - India Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Uzbekistan and India is marked by a widening trade deficit and volatile growth in 2023 Q3.

• Economic Pulse: Uzbekistan recorded a $169.47M trade deficit with India, driven by imports ($176.61M) far outpacing exports ($7.14M). Volatility spiked, with export swings ranging from +95.15% MoM growth to -59.33% contraction.
• Exchange Structure: Uzbekistan - India trade statistics reveal a resource-for-tech complementarity—Uzbekistan supplies raw materials (precious metals, ores) while India dominates high-value exports (pharmaceuticals, machinery).
• Strategic Interdependence: India holds the upper hand in value chains, with Uzbekistan reliant on critical tech imports, signaling an asymmetric but symbiotic partnership.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Uzbekistan-India Trade Trend in Q3 2023

Uzbekistan Export Performance: Shipments to India

• Total Volume: $7.14M in Q3 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth was strong in July (+22.03%) and August (+28.09%), but September saw a sharp decline (-57.37%).
  • No specific trade news to explain the volatility.
• Key Volatility: August recorded the highest MoM surge (+95.15%), while September had the steepest drop (-59.33%).

Uzbekistan Import Performance: Sourcing from India

• Total Volume: $176.61M in Q3 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth was positive in July (+22.94%) and August (+5.7%), but turned negative in September (-10.44%).
• Key Volatility: July saw the highest MoM jump (+63.66%), while September had the largest contraction (-9.55%).

Uzbekistan - India Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade deficit of $169.47M (Imports $176.61M > Exports $7.14M).
• Relationship Status: Uzbekistan is heavily dependent on imports from India, with exports remaining marginal in comparison.

Uzbekistan Import Trend from India 2023 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Uzbekistan Export Trend to India 2023 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Uzbekistan India Trade Records

Uzbekistan-India Top Trading Products in Q3 2023

Uzbekistan Export Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Sell to India

• Top Commodity: Precious metals (HS 71) dominate, accounting for 28.98% of exports.
• Demand Driver: India likely uses these raw materials for industrial processing, particularly in jewelry or electronics manufacturing.
• Concentration: Trade is moderately concentrated, with the top 3 categories (HS 71, 13, 81) making up 62.77% of exports.

Uzbekistan Import Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Buy from India

• Top Commodity: Pharmaceuticals (HS 30) lead imports, representing 44.67% of total value.
• Dependency Nature: Critical technology dependency, as India supplies high-value medicines and medical equipment.

Uzbekistan - India Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Uzbekistan exports raw materials (precious metals, ores) and imports high-tech goods (pharmaceuticals, machinery).
• Value Chain Position: India holds the higher value-add position, supplying advanced products (HS 30, 84) while Uzbekistan provides upstream inputs (HS 71, 13).

Import Analysis by Product: India to Uzbekistan (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Uzbekistan to India (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Uzbekistan-India Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

The Uzbekistan-India trade relationship is poised for cautious growth in the near term, driven by India’s sustained demand for Uzbek raw materials (HS 71, 13) and Uzbekistan’s reliance on Indian pharmaceuticals (HS 30). However, the sharp September declines in both exports (-57.37% YoY) and imports (-10.44% YoY) signal potential volatility, possibly tied to seasonal adjustments or unrecorded policy shifts. Traders should anticipate a rebound in Q4 2023, but with tighter margins due to Uzbekistan’s widening trade deficit ($169.47M). Long-term, the resource-for-tech complementarity will persist, but diversification will be critical to mitigate overreliance on a few high-value categories.

Strategic Moves

• Lock in Precious Metal Contracts: Uzbek exporters of HS 71 (precious metals) should secure long-term agreements with Indian industrial buyers to stabilize revenue amid fluctuating monthly demand.
• Diversify Pharmaceutical Sourcing: Uzbek importers must reduce dependency on Indian HS 30 (pharmaceuticals) by exploring alternative suppliers in Europe or Southeast Asia to hedge against sudden price spikes or export controls.
• Push Agri-Exports to India: Uzbekistan’s agricultural sector (underutilized in current trade) should target India’s growing consumer market, leveraging bilateral talks to reduce non-tariff barriers for products like dried fruits (HS 08) or cotton (HS 52).

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Uzbekistan - India trade perform in 2023 Q3?

Uzbekistan's exports to India totaled $7.14M, with strong YoY growth in July and August but a sharp decline in September. Imports from India reached $176.61M, showing mixed YoY growth trends.

What are the top exports from Uzbekistan to India?

Precious metals (HS 71) dominate, accounting for 28.98% of exports, followed by other key categories like HS 13 and HS 81, making up 62.77% of total exports.

What does Uzbekistan import from India?

Pharmaceuticals (HS 30) lead imports, representing 44.67% of total value, highlighting Uzbekistan's dependency on high-value medicines and medical equipment from India.

What is the trade balance between Uzbekistan and India?

Uzbekistan recorded a trade deficit of $169.47M in Q3 2023, as imports ($176.61M) far exceeded exports ($7.14M). The gap reflects heavy reliance on Indian goods.