Uzbekistan - India Trade 2024 Q1: Widening Deficit
Key Market Takeaways: Uzbekistan - India Trade
The bilateral trade relationship between Uzbekistan and India is marked by a widening trade deficit in Q1 2024.
- Economic Pulse: Uzbekistan posted a $193.58M trade deficit with India, driven by $198.03M in imports (up sharply YoY) versus just $4.45M in exports (declining YoY).
- Exchange Structure: Uzbekistan - India trade statistics reveal a resource-for-tech imbalance: Uzbekistan supplies raw materials (lac, ores) while India dominates with high-value pharmaceuticals (54% of imports).
- Strategic Interdependence: The partnership remains asymmetrical, with India holding the value-add advantage in critical sectors like pharmaceuticals and machinery.
This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.
Uzbekistan-India Trade Trend in Q1 2024
Uzbekistan Export Performance: Shipments to India
- Total Volume: $4.45M in Q1 2024.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- YoY declines persisted across all months, with March (-76.03%) showing the sharpest contraction.
- Key Volatility: February saw a 165.46% MoM surge, but this was followed by a -59.66% collapse in March.
Uzbekistan Import Performance: Sourcing from India
- Total Volume: $198.03M in Q1 2024.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- Strong YoY growth in January (+64.48%) and March (+81.72%), offsetting February’s moderation (+25.59%).
- Key Volatility: March recorded the highest absolute value ($72.17M) and the largest MoM jump (+15.57%).
Uzbekistan - India Trade Balance & Market Dynamics
- Net Position: Trade Deficit of $193.58M (Imports $198.03M > Exports $4.45M).
- Relationship Status: Heavy reliance on Indian imports, with exports remaining marginal. The deficit widened significantly compared to Q1 2023 trends.
Uzbekistan Import Trend from India 2024 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 63.41M | -0.5% | 64.48% |
| Feb | 62.45M | -1.52% | 25.59% |
| Mar | 72.17M | 15.57% | 81.72% |
| Total | 198.03M | - | - |
Uzbekistan Export Trend to India 2024 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 941.73K | -36.49% | -18.44% |
| Feb | 2.50M | 165.46% | -33.14% |
| Mar | 1.01M | -59.66% | -76.03% |
| Total | 4.45M | - | - |
Get Historical Uzbekistan India Trade Records
Uzbekistan-India Top Trading Products in Q1 2024
Uzbekistan Export Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Sell to India
- Top Commodity: HS Code 13 (Lac, gums, resins, vegetable saps) dominates with 19.75% share.
- Demand Driver: India uses these raw materials for industrial processing, likely in pharmaceuticals or adhesives.
- Concentration: No single category dominates; top 3 exports (HS 13, 88, 31) collectively hold 54.86% share.
Uzbekistan Import Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Buy from India
- Top Commodity: HS Code 30 (Pharmaceutical products) accounts for 54.27% of imports, indicating heavy reliance.
- Dependency Nature: Critical technology dependency, as pharmaceuticals require specialized manufacturing capabilities.
Uzbekistan - India Trade Relationship Dynamics
- The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Uzbekistan supplies raw materials (lac, ores) while India exports high-value pharmaceuticals and machinery.
- Value Chain Position: India holds the higher value-add position, evidenced by its dominance in complex exports (pharmaceuticals, machinery) versus Uzbekistan’s raw material shipments.
Import Analysis by Product: India to Uzbekistan (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | 107.47M | 54.27% |
| 84 | 32.38M | 16.35% |
| 02 | 18.66M | 9.42% |
| 32 | 5.63M | 2.85% |
| 87 | 3.74M | 1.89% |
| 85 | 3.73M | 1.88% |
| 38 | 3.37M | 1.70% |
| 90 | 2.47M | 1.25% |
| 54 | 2.21M | 1.12% |
| 39 | 2.21M | 1.11% |
Export Analysis by Product: Uzbekistan to India (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | 879.13K | 19.75% |
| 88 | 805.00K | 18.09% |
| 31 | 757.58K | 17.02% |
| 76 | 590.47K | 13.27% |
| 27 | 197.93K | 4.45% |
| 94 | 174.46K | 3.92% |
| 81 | 163.10K | 3.66% |
| 74 | 159.04K | 3.57% |
| 47 | 147.00K | 3.30% |
| 85 | 119.86K | 2.69% |
Check Detailed Uzbekistan-India Trade HS Code Breakdown
Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations
Forecast
Uzbekistan’s trade deficit with India is likely to widen further in Q2 2024, driven by sustained demand for Indian pharmaceuticals and weak export recovery. The structural imbalance—raw materials for high-value tech—will persist unless Uzbekistan diversifies its export basket. Volatility in key commodities (e.g., lac, gums) may continue, but India’s import growth (+81.72% YoY in March) signals stable demand. Traders should prepare for tighter margins on Uzbek exports amid India’s dominance in value-added sectors.
Strategic Moves
- Diversify Export Markets: Uzbek exporters must reduce reliance on India by targeting Southeast Asia and the Middle East for raw materials like HS 13 (lac, gums), where industrial demand is rising.
- Secure Long-Term Pharma Contracts: Importers should lock in pricing with Indian pharmaceutical suppliers (HS 30) now to hedge against future cost surges, given India’s 54.27% import share.
- Invest in Light Manufacturing: Uzbekistan’s government and private sector must prioritize upgrading processing capabilities for raw materials (e.g., resins, ores) to capture higher margins and reduce the tech gap with India.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Uzbekistan - India trade perform in 2024 Q1?
Uzbekistan exported $4.45M to India, with YoY declines across all months, while imports from India surged to $198.03M, driven by strong growth in January and March.
What are the top exports from Uzbekistan to India?
The top exports include HS Code 13 (Lac, gums, resins, vegetable saps), HS Code 88 (Aircraft, spacecraft, and parts), and HS Code 31 (Fertilizers), collectively accounting for 54.86% of exports.
What does Uzbekistan import from India?
Pharmaceutical products (HS Code 30) dominate imports, representing 54.27% of the total, highlighting Uzbekistan's reliance on India for high-value manufactured goods.
What is the trade balance between Uzbekistan and India?
Uzbekistan recorded a trade deficit of $193.58M, with imports far exceeding exports, and the gap widened compared to Q1 2023 trends.
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