2025 Uzbekistan Polyethylene (HS 390120) Export: Market Collapse

Key Takeaways

Polyethylene, classified under HS Code 390120, exhibited extreme volatility from January to November 2025.

• Market Pulse: Exports surged to $11.19M in July before collapsing 93% by November due to Uzbekistan’s export duty policy, which prioritized domestic processing over outward shipments.
• Structural Shift: Uzbekistan Polyethylene Export reliance on Latvia (25.84% of value) and high-volume repeat buyers (95.50% of market value) creates acute concentration risk.
• Product Logic: HS Code 390120 trade data reveals a bulk-plastic market dominated by a single high-density grade ($0.71/kg), with minimal diversity in product forms or specifications.

This overview covers the period from January to November 2025 and is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Uzbekistan Polyethylene (HS Code 390120) Key Metrics Trend

Market Trend Summary

The Uzbekistan Polyethylene Export trend for HS code 390120 showed strong momentum through August 2025 before collapsing in the final quarter. Total export value climbed from $8.53M in January to a peak of $11.19M in July, while weight followed a similar trajectory, reaching 16.03M kg that same month. Both metrics then fell sharply, with November exports plummeting to just $566.6K and 965.25K kg—down 93% and 92% respectively from July’s highs.

Drivers & Industry Context

The export collapse aligns directly with Uzbekistan’s imposition of export duties on polyethylene and polypropylene, effective July 1, 2025, as part of measures to retain strategic raw materials for domestic value-added production [UzDaily]. This policy discouraged outward shipments, cratering the value derived from HS code 390120. Concurrent import tax exemptions—zero excise and duty until 2028—further incentivized domestic processing over exports, accelerating the Q4 contraction (UzDaily).

Table: Uzbekistan Polyethylene Export Trend (Source: yTrade)

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Uzbekistan HS Code 390120 Export Breakdown

Market Composition & Top Categories

Uzbekistan's HS Code 390120 export market is overwhelmingly dominated by one product category: polyethylene with a specific gravity of 0.94 or more, which accounted for 100% of the total export value throughout 2025. According to yTrade data, this single sub-category also represented virtually all the shipped weight, leaving only a fractional share for all other variants combined. The export structure for Uzbekistan HS Code 390120 is therefore highly concentrated, with minimal diversity across product grades or forms.

Value Chain & Strategic Insights

The unit price differential—$0.71/kg for the dominant grade versus $0.41/kg for the minor one—points to a commodity market where slight density specifications influence value. This HS Code 390120 breakdown confirms a bulk-plastic trade structure, with competition driven by volume and cost efficiency rather than specialized performance or branding. Uzbekistan’s export profile here aligns with global polyethylene markets, where scale and consistent quality define competitiveness.

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Uzbekistan Polyethylene Destination Countries

Geographic Concentration & Market Risk

Latvia dominates Uzbekistan's polyethylene export destinations, capturing 25.84% of total value from January to November 2025. This heavy reliance on a single European market creates significant exposure to regional economic shifts or logistical disruptions. Turkey follows as a secondary outlet with substantial volume but operates as a high-frequency, lower-margin counterpart. The absence of domestic re-imports confirms all flows represent genuine foreign demand rather than inventory adjustments or returned goods.

Purchasing Behavior & Demand Segmentation

Latvia’s value ratio (25.84%) substantially exceeds its weight ratio (28.98%), indicating premium demand for higher-value polyethylene grades that command better margins. Conversely, Turkey’s exceptionally high shipment frequency (47.59% of total shipments) alongside moderate value contribution reveals a fragmented, price-sensitive market likely serving distributed industrial or packaging needs. Uzbekistan’s trade partners for polyethylene thus split between margin-focused buyers in Europe and volume-driven processors in neighboring regions, offering both premium and scale opportunities.

Table: Uzbekistan Polyethylene (HS Code 390120) Top Destination Countries (Source: yTrade)

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Uzbekistan Polyethylene Buyer Companies Analysis

Buyer Concentration & Market Structure

According to yTrade data, Uzbekistan Polyethylene buyers are dominated by high-volume repeaters, who accounted for 95.50% of the market value from January to November 2025. This overwhelming share indicates a stable, contract-based supply chain where a small number of key accounts control most transactions. The market structure is heavily concentrated, with these loyal partners driving consistent demand.

Purchasing Behavior & Sales Strategy

The high concentration poses significant risk, as losing even one major buyer could severely impact revenue, so sellers should prioritize securing long-term contracts and relationship management. With the zero excise tax on imports [UzDaily] potentially boosting demand, aligning with HS Code 390120 buyer trends through targeted engagement can help capitalize on growth while mitigating dependency on a few accounts.

Table: Uzbekistan Polyethylene (HS Code 390120) Top Buyers List (Source: yTrade)

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Action Plan for Polyethylene Market Operation and Expansion

• Diversify Buyer Base: Target secondary markets like Turkey (47.59% shipment frequency) to reduce dependency on Latvia and high-volume repeaters, mitigating revenue risk.
• Lock In Contracts: Secure long-term agreements with key European buyers to stabilize margins, leveraging Latvia’s premium demand for higher-value grades.
• Optimize Logistics: Focus on cost-efficient shipping solutions for bulk polyethylene, given the commodity-driven, weight-heavy trade structure.
• Monitor Policy Shifts: Track Uzbekistan’s tax exemptions (zero excise until 2028) and export duties to anticipate supply chain disruptions or domestic demand shifts.
• Explore Value-Add: Investigate domestic processing opportunities to align with Uzbekistan’s push for higher-margin polymer production.

Take Action Now —— Explore Uzbekistan Polyethylene HS Code 390120 Export Data

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1. What is driving the recent changes in Uzbekistan Polyethylene Export in 2025?

Uzbekistan's polyethylene exports collapsed in late 2025 after the government imposed export duties to prioritize domestic processing, causing a 93% drop in value from July to November.

Q2. Who are the main destination countries of Uzbekistan Polyethylene (HS Code 390120) in 2025?

Latvia dominated with 25.84% of export value, followed by Turkey, which accounted for 47.59% of total shipment frequency but lower margins.

Q3. Why does the unit price differ across destination countries of Uzbekistan Polyethylene Export in 2025?

Latvia pays a premium ($0.71/kg) for higher-density polyethylene grades, while Turkey’s high-volume, low-margin demand reflects price-sensitive bulk purchases.

Q4. What should exporters in Uzbekistan focus on in the current Polyethylene export market?

Exporters must secure long-term contracts with high-value buyers like Latvia while diversifying to mitigate reliance on a few concentrated markets.

Q5. What does this Uzbekistan Polyethylene export pattern mean for buyers in partner countries?

European buyers benefit from stable, high-margin supply, while regional buyers like Turkey gain cost-efficient bulk access but face fragmented competition.

Q6. How is Polyethylene typically used in this trade flow?

The exported polyethylene (specific gravity ≥0.94) is a bulk plastic commodity, primarily for industrial packaging or manufacturing where cost efficiency matters.