2025 Uzbekistan Polyethylene (HS 3901) Export: Market Collapse

Key Takeaways

Polyethylene, classified under HS Code 3901, exhibited extreme volatility from January to November 2025.

• Market Pulse: Exports surged to a July peak ($11.26M value, 16.10M kg weight) before collapsing 87.6% in value by November due to Uzbekistan’s 10% raw polymer export duty.
• Structural Shift: Uzbekistan Polyethylene Export reliance on Latvia (25.64% value share) and a handful of bulk buyers (96.82% of trade) creates acute dependency risk.
• Product Logic: HS Code 3901 trade data confirms a commoditized market, with 99% of exports being low-margin polyethylene (0.71 USD/kg), leaving minimal room for premium pricing.

This overview covers the period from January to November 2025 and is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Uzbekistan Polyethylene (HS Code 3901) Key Metrics Trend

Market Trend Summary

The Uzbekistan Polyethylene Export trend from January to November 2025 showed strong initial performance before collapsing in the final quarter. Total export value climbed from $8.59M in January to a peak of $11.26M in July, while weight surged from 11.60M kg to 16.10M kg over the same period. Both metrics then fell sharply: value dropped 87.6% to just $566.6K by November, and weight contracted 85.4% to 965.25K kg.

Drivers & Industry Context

The export collapse aligns directly with Tashkent’s July 1 policy shift imposing a 10% duty on raw polymer exports [LEXCELL], designed to redirect feedstock to domestic processors. The abrupt September–November plunge in HS Code 3901 value reflects exporters accelerating shipments ahead of the duty, then curtailing activity once it took full effect. Some October stabilization likely came from firms adjusting to new compliance costs, though the broader trend confirms policy success in suppressing raw material exports.

Table: Uzbekistan Polyethylene Export Trend (Source: yTrade)

Get Uzbekistan Polyethylene Data Latest Updates

Uzbekistan HS Code 3901 Export Breakdown

Market Composition & Top Categories

According to yTrade data, the Uzbekistan HS Code 3901 export market from January to November 2025 is dominated by polyethylene with a specific gravity of 0.94 or more, capturing nearly all export value at over 99%. The remaining sub-codes consist of minor ethylene polymer variations, including copolymers and lower specific gravity types, each contributing less than 1% individually. This concentration highlights a market where a single standardized product drives the bulk of trade.

Value Chain & Strategic Insights

Unit prices for these exports range from 0.41 to 2.52 USD per kilogram, with the dominant low-cost product at 0.71 USD/kg indicating a commodity market sensitive to price fluctuations. Higher-priced niches exist for specialized copolymers, but their minimal share confirms that bulk, undifferentiated polyethylene defines the trade structure. This HS Code 3901 breakdown shows a reliance on raw material exports with limited value-add, typical of a price-competitive commodity sector.

Table: Uzbekistan HS Code 3901) Export Breakdown Details (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed HS Code 3901 Breakdown

Uzbekistan Polyethylene Destination Countries

Geographic Concentration & Market Risk

Uzbekistan's Polyethylene export destinations show high reliance on Latvia, which captured 25.64% of the total export value from January to November 2025. This concentration exposes Uzbekistan to significant market risk, as any disruption in Latvian demand could sharply impact export revenues. The absence of domestic re-imports confirms all flows are genuine foreign consumption, not logistics staging.

Purchasing Behavior & Demand Segmentation

Exports to Latvia exhibit a commodity-driven profile, with weight ratio (28.81%) exceeding value ratio (25.64%), signaling bulk industrial processing focused on volume scale. High-frequency orders from Turkey (46.79% frequency ratio) indicate fragmented, just-in-time demand, but the overall trade partners for Polyethylene prioritize cost-efficiency over premium margins, favoring large-scale shipments.

Table: Uzbekistan Polyethylene (HS Code 3901) Top Destination Countries (Source: yTrade)

Get Uzbekistan Polyethylene (HS Code 3901) Complete Destination Countries Profile

Uzbekistan Polyethylene Buyer Companies Analysis

Buyer Concentration & Market Structure

According to yTrade data, Uzbekistan Polyethylene buyers are overwhelmingly dominated by a core group of high-volume, repeat customers. This segment accounts for 96.82% of the total export value, indicating a market built on stable, contract-based supply chains with major industrial consumers. Representative companies like ООО ВР

• ПЛАСТ highlight this reliance on a concentrated base of key accounts for consistent bulk shipments.

Purchasing Behavior & Sales Strategy

This extreme concentration creates significant client dependency risk, making retention of these key accounts the absolute priority. Sales strategy must focus on securing long-term contracts and offering volume-based incentives to lock in these buyers, especially as Uzbekistan pushes domestic processing [LEXCELL] and removes excise taxes to support local manufacturing [Tashkent Times]. Monitoring HS Code 3901 buyer trends for any diversification among smaller importers remains secondary but could provide a future hedge.

Table: Uzbekistan Polyethylene (HS Code 3901) Top Buyers List (Source: yTrade)

Check Full Uzbekistan Polyethylene Buyers list

Action Plan for Polyethylene Market Operation and Expansion

• Lock in Contracts: Secure long-term agreements with core buyers (e.g., ООО ВР
• ПЛАСТ) to mitigate revenue volatility from policy shifts like the July export duty.
• Diversify Geographies: Reduce reliance on Latvia by targeting fragmented demand in Turkey (46.79% order frequency) or other emerging polymer hubs.
• Optimize Logistics: Bulk shipments dominate—negotiate freight rates for high-volume routes to offset thin margins in HS Code 3901’s commodity-grade trade.
• Monitor Policy: Track Uzbekistan’s domestic processing incentives (e.g., excise tax removal) to anticipate further export restrictions or feedstock shortages.
• Audit Costs: Reassess production economics given the 0.41–2.52 USD/kg price range; prioritize low-cost operations to compete in bulk markets.

Take Action Now —— Explore Uzbekistan Polyethylene HS Code 3901 Export Data

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1. What is driving the recent changes in Uzbekistan Polyethylene Export in 2025?

Uzbekistan's Polyethylene exports surged in early 2025 but collapsed by late 2025 due to a 10% duty on raw polymer exports imposed in July, redirecting feedstock to domestic processors.

Q2. Who are the main destination countries of Uzbekistan Polyethylene (HS Code 3901) in 2025?

Latvia is the top destination, capturing 25.64% of export value, followed by Turkey, which accounts for 46.79% of order frequency.

Q3. Why does the unit price differ across destination countries of Uzbekistan Polyethylene Export in 2025?

Prices range from 0.41 to 2.52 USD/kg, with bulk polyethylene (0.71 USD/kg) dominating, while specialized copolymers command higher prices but contribute minimally to trade volume.

Q4. What should exporters in Uzbekistan focus on in the current Polyethylene export market?

Exporters must prioritize retaining key bulk buyers (96.82% of export value) through long-term contracts and volume incentives, given extreme buyer concentration.

Q5. What does this Uzbekistan Polyethylene export pattern mean for buyers in partner countries?

Buyers in Latvia and Turkey benefit from stable, large-scale shipments but face risks if Uzbekistan’s policy shifts further restrict raw material exports.

Q6. How is Polyethylene typically used in this trade flow?

Polyethylene (HS Code 3901) is primarily exported as a raw material for industrial processing, with bulk shipments favoring cost-sensitive manufacturing applications.