Uzbekistan - Azerbaijan Trade 2024 Q3: Surplus & Growth

Key Market Takeaways: Uzbekistan - Azerbaijan Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan surged with strong export growth and volatility in Q3 2024.

• Economic Pulse: Uzbekistan posted a 48.77M trade surplus, with exports to Azerbaijan (63.00M) outpacing imports (14.23M) by 4.4x. YoY export growth peaked at +101.46%, signaling rapid expansion.
• Exchange Structure: Uzbekistan - Azerbaijan trade statistics reveal resource-for-consumer goods complementarity. Uzbekistan exports tobacco (17.14% share) and metals, while relying on Azerbaijan for sugar (62.09% of imports).
• Strategic Interdependence: The partnership is highly complementary, with Uzbekistan adding higher value in exports (e.g., vehicles) and Azerbaijan supplying essential raw materials.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Uzbekistan-Azerbaijan Trade Trend in Q3 2024

Uzbekistan Export Performance: Shipments to Azerbaijan

• Total Volume: Exports to Azerbaijan totaled 63.00M in Q3 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth surged in all months, peaking at +101.46% in September.
  • August saw the sharpest MoM jump (+96.37%), signaling strong mid-quarter momentum.
• Key Volatility: August’s near-doubling of export value (24.58M) was the standout monthly performance.

Uzbekistan Import Performance: Sourcing from Azerbaijan

• Total Volume: Imports from Azerbaijan reached 14.23M in Q3 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY trends were mixed: July imports plummeted (-89.42%), but September rebounded sharply (+98.94%).
• Key Volatility: July’s imports (5.10M) spiked 214.92% MoM from a likely depressed base, then corrected in August.

Uzbekistan - Azerbaijan Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Uzbekistan posted a trade surplus of 48.77M (Exports: 63.00M > Imports: 14.23M).
• Relationship Status: Dominant exporter role, with exports 4.4x higher than imports. The surplus widened notably from Q3 2023 trends (YoY export growth outpacing imports).

Analysis adheres strictly to provided data. No relevant trade news for Q3 2024 to contextualize shifts.

Uzbekistan Import Trend from Azerbaijan 2024 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Uzbekistan Export Trend to Azerbaijan 2024 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Uzbekistan Azerbaijan Trade Records

Uzbekistan-Azerbaijan Top Trading Products in Q3 2024

Uzbekistan Export Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Sell to Azerbaijan

• Top Commodity: Tobacco (HS Code 24) dominates with 17.14% share.
• Demand Driver: Azerbaijan likely imports Uzbek tobacco for consumer market distribution.
• Concentration: No single category dominates; trade is diversified across multiple sectors.

Uzbekistan Import Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Buy from Azerbaijan

• Top Commodity: Sugar (HS Code 17) leads with 62.09% share.
• Dependency Nature: High reliance suggests food security dependency, given sugar's essential role.

Uzbekistan - Azerbaijan Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Consumer Goods Complementarity. Uzbekistan exports tobacco and metals (copper, vehicles) while importing sugar and aluminum.
• Value Chain Position: Uzbekistan holds higher value-add in exports (e.g., vehicles, copper), while Azerbaijan supplies raw materials (sugar, aluminum).

Import Analysis by Product: Azerbaijan to Uzbekistan (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Uzbekistan to Azerbaijan (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Uzbekistan-Azerbaijan Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Uzbekistan’s trade surplus with Azerbaijan is poised to widen further in Q4 2024, driven by sustained demand for Uzbek tobacco and metals. The explosive YoY export growth (+101.46% peak in September) signals Azerbaijan’s growing reliance on Uzbek consumer goods, while Uzbekistan’s sugar imports from Azerbaijan may stabilize after Q3 volatility. Given the complementary trade structure—Uzbekistan’s value-added exports versus Azerbaijan’s raw material supplies—the relationship will likely deepen, but exporters should prepare for potential supply chain adjustments if Azerbaijan diversifies its sugar sourcing.

Strategic Moves

• Lock in Tobacco Contracts: Uzbek exporters should secure long-term agreements with Azerbaijani buyers to capitalize on the 17.14% dominance of tobacco (HS 24) and mitigate price fluctuations.
• Diversify Sugar Suppliers: Given Azerbaijan’s 62.09% share in Uzbekistan’s sugar imports (HS 17), Uzbek importers must scout alternative markets (e.g., Kazakhstan or Russia) to reduce dependency risks.
• Invest in Logistics for Metals Trade: With copper and vehicles contributing to export diversification, Uzbek firms should optimize transport routes to Azerbaijan to handle higher volumes efficiently.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Uzbekistan - Azerbaijan trade perform in 2024 Q3?

Uzbekistan's exports to Azerbaijan surged 101.46% YoY in September 2024, totaling $63.00M, while imports from Azerbaijan reached $14.23M, resulting in a $48.77M trade surplus.

What are the top exports from Uzbekistan to Azerbaijan?

Tobacco (HS Code 24) is the top export, accounting for 17.14% of shipments, followed by metals (copper) and vehicles, reflecting diversified trade.

What does Uzbekistan import from Azerbaijan?

Sugar (HS Code 17) dominates imports with a 62.09% share, indicating a high dependency on Azerbaijan for food security needs.

What is the trade balance between Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan?

Uzbekistan holds a $48.77M trade surplus, with exports 4.4x higher than imports, widening from Q3 2023 trends.