Uzbekistan - Azerbaijan Trade 2024 Q2: Surging Surplus

Key Market Takeaways: Uzbekistan - Azerbaijan Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan surged with a widening trade surplus in Q2 2024.

• Economic Pulse: Uzbekistan posted a $37.57M trade surplus, with exports ($45.04M) outpacing imports ($7.47M) by 6:1, driven by strong YoY growth (73.82% in June).
• Exchange Structure: Uzbekistan - Azerbaijan trade statistics reveal a resource-for-resource complementarity—Uzbekistan exports machinery (HS 84) and consumer goods, while importing aluminum (HS 76) and agricultural products.
• Strategic Interdependence: Trade remains balanced but lacks deep supply chain integration, with Uzbekistan holding a higher value-add position in processed goods.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Uzbekistan-Azerbaijan Trade Trend in Q2 2024

Uzbekistan Export Performance: Shipments to Azerbaijan

• Total Volume: Exports to Azerbaijan totaled 45.04M in Q2 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Exports surged 73.82% YoY in June, capping a strong quarter.
  • May saw a 134.3% MoM spike, the sharpest increase, followed by steady growth in June (+10.72% MoM).
• Key Volatility: May’s 134.3% MoM jump dominated the quarter, signaling a potential supply chain adjustment or demand surge.

Uzbekistan Import Performance: Sourcing from Azerbaijan

• Total Volume: Imports from Azerbaijan reached 7.47M in Q2 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Imports collapsed -54.58% YoY in June, extending a quarterly downturn.
  • April’s 12.13% YoY growth reversed sharply in May (-5.18% YoY) and June (-54.58% YoY).
• Key Volatility: June’s -39.28% MoM drop was the steepest, likely reflecting reduced orders or inventory drawdowns.

Uzbekistan - Azerbaijan Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Uzbekistan holds a 37.57M trade surplus with Azerbaijan (Exports: 45.04M; Imports: 7.47M).
• Relationship Status: Dominant net exporter role, with exports outpacing imports by 6:1. The widening surplus suggests deepening trade asymmetry.

Uzbekistan Import Trend from Azerbaijan 2024 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Uzbekistan Export Trend to Azerbaijan 2024 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Uzbekistan Azerbaijan Trade Records

Uzbekistan-Azerbaijan Top Trading Products in Q2 2024

Uzbekistan Export Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Sell to Azerbaijan

• Top Commodity: Machinery (HS 84) dominates exports, accounting for 16.70% of total value.
• Demand Driver: Azerbaijan imports machinery and equipment (HS 84, 87) for industrial and infrastructure development. Consumer goods like textiles (HS 60) and tobacco (HS 24) also feature prominently, indicating diversified demand.
• Concentration: No single category exceeds 50%, but machinery, copper (HS 74), and vehicles (HS 87) collectively make up 43.88%, showing a focus on industrial inputs.

Uzbekistan Import Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Buy from Azerbaijan

• Top Commodity: Aluminum (HS 76) leads imports with a 22.95% share, followed by edible fruits (HS 08) at 15.89%.
• Dependency Nature: Reliance on aluminum suggests industrial raw material needs, while fruits and sugars (HS 17) point to agricultural demand. No critical tech or energy dependencies are evident.

Uzbekistan - Azerbaijan Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Resource Complementarity. Uzbekistan exports machinery and consumer goods, while importing raw materials (aluminum) and agricultural products. No high-tech or energy swaps.
• Value Chain Position: Uzbekistan holds a higher value-add position, exporting processed goods (machinery, textiles) versus Azerbaijan’s raw material exports (aluminum, fruits). Trade is balanced but lacks deep supply chain integration.

Import Analysis by Product: Azerbaijan to Uzbekistan (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Uzbekistan to Azerbaijan (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Uzbekistan-Azerbaijan Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Uzbekistan’s trade surplus with Azerbaijan is expected to widen further in Q3 2024, driven by sustained demand for machinery (HS 84) and industrial inputs. The 73.82% YoY export surge in June signals strong Azerbaijani appetite for Uzbek processed goods, while the sharp decline in imports (-54.58% YoY) suggests Azerbaijan’s raw material exports may face continued softness. Traders should anticipate volatility in aluminum (HS 76) shipments but steady growth in consumer goods like textiles (HS 60). Without deeper supply chain integration, the current resource-for-resource complementarity will likely persist, reinforcing Uzbekistan’s higher value-add position.

Strategic Moves

• Expand Machinery Exports: Capitalize on Azerbaijan’s infrastructure needs by prioritizing HS 84 (machinery) and HS 87 (vehicles) shipments, targeting long-term contracts with Azerbaijani industrial buyers.
• Diversify Import Sources: Reduce reliance on Azerbaijani aluminum (HS 76) by securing alternative raw material suppliers in Central Asia or the Middle East to mitigate supply chain disruptions.
• Optimize Logistics for Agribusiness: Streamline cross-border transport for edible fruits (HS 08) and sugars (HS 17) to exploit seasonal demand spikes and reduce lead times.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Uzbekistan - Azerbaijan trade perform in 2024 Q2?

Uzbekistan's exports to Azerbaijan surged 73.82% YoY in June 2024, totaling $45.04M, while imports from Azerbaijan dropped 54.58% YoY, reaching $7.47M.

What are the top exports from Uzbekistan to Azerbaijan?

Machinery (HS 84), copper (HS 74), and vehicles (HS 87) dominate Uzbekistan's exports to Azerbaijan, collectively accounting for 43.88% of total export value.

What does Uzbekistan import from Azerbaijan?

Uzbekistan primarily imports aluminum (HS 76) and edible fruits (HS 08) from Azerbaijan, with aluminum alone representing 22.95% of total imports.

What is the trade balance between Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan?

Uzbekistan holds a $37.57M trade surplus with Azerbaijan, with exports outpacing imports by 6:1, indicating a widening trade asymmetry.