Uzbekistan - Afghanistan Trade 2024 Q4: Surplus & Growth

Key Market Takeaways: Uzbekistan - Afghanistan Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan shows strong export growth and volatility in Q4 2024.

• Economic Pulse: Uzbekistan holds a $287.35M trade surplus, with exports ($309.40M) dwarfing imports ($22.05M). YoY growth in exports (up to +63.26%) signals sustained demand.
• Exchange Structure: Uzbekistan - Afghanistan trade statistics reveal a resource-for-tech complementarity: Uzbekistan supplies food (HS 11) and energy (HS 27), while importing high-value minerals (HS 71) like gold.
• Strategic Interdependence: The partnership is asymmetric but complementary, with Uzbekistan dominating processed goods exports and Afghanistan providing raw materials.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Uzbekistan-Afghanistan Trade Trend in Q4 2024

Uzbekistan Export Performance: Shipments to Afghanistan

• Total Volume: $309.40M in Q4 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Exports grew YoY in all months (Oct: +63.26%, Nov: +25.44%, Dec: +46.95%), indicating sustained demand.
  • No specific trade news to explain trends.
• Key Volatility: December saw the highest monthly export value ($106.34M) and a 5.14% MoM rise.

Uzbekistan Import Performance: Sourcing from Afghanistan

• Total Volume: $22.05M in Q4 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Extreme YoY growth in October (+410.96%) and December (+1,712.73%), likely due to low base effects or one-off shipments.
  • No relevant news to contextualize volatility.
• Key Volatility: December imports surged 577.98% MoM to $14.37M, dwarfing other months.

Uzbekistan - Afghanistan Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade surplus of $287.35M (Exports: $309.40M > Imports: $22.05M).
• Relationship Status: Uzbekistan dominates as a net exporter, with exports 14x higher than imports. Trade is heavily skewed in its favor.

Uzbekistan Import Trend from Afghanistan 2024 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Uzbekistan Export Trend to Afghanistan 2024 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Uzbekistan Afghanistan Trade Records

Uzbekistan-Afghanistan Top Trading Products in Q4 2024

Uzbekistan Export Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Sell to Afghanistan

• Top Commodity: HS Code 11 (37.90% share). This likely represents milling industry products like wheat or flour, given Afghanistan's reliance on food imports.
• Demand Driver: Afghanistan's consumer market depends on Uzbekistan for staple foods, indicating a food security gap.
• Concentration: The top 3 exports (HS 11, 27, 07) make up 72.49% of total exports, showing high reliance on a few categories.

Uzbekistan Import Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Buy from Afghanistan

• Top Commodity: HS Code 71 (38.72% share). This suggests precious metals or gemstones, possibly gold, reflecting Afghanistan's mineral wealth.
• Dependency Nature: Uzbekistan sources high-value raw materials, indicating a resource-for-processing dynamic.

Uzbekistan - Afghanistan Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Uzbekistan exports food (HS 11) and energy (HS 27) while importing high-value minerals (HS 71) from Afghanistan.
• Value Chain Position: Uzbekistan holds the higher value-add position, exporting processed goods (food, energy) versus Afghanistan's raw material exports (metals, ores).

Import Analysis by Product: Afghanistan to Uzbekistan (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Uzbekistan to Afghanistan (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Uzbekistan-Afghanistan Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Uzbekistan’s trade surplus with Afghanistan is set to widen further in 2025, driven by sustained demand for staple foods (HS 11) and energy products (HS 27). The extreme volatility in Afghan mineral exports (HS 71) suggests potential supply chain disruptions, but Uzbekistan’s dominant position in processed goods ensures long-term leverage. Traders should anticipate stronger export growth, particularly in food and fuel, while monitoring Afghanistan’s raw material shipments for opportunistic purchases.

Strategic Moves

• Lock in Food Export Contracts: Afghan reliance on Uzbek wheat and flour is structural. Exporters should secure multi-year agreements to stabilize revenue and counter price fluctuations.
• Diversify Mineral Sourcing: The erratic spikes in Afghan precious metals (HS 71) signal unreliable supply. Uzbek processors must scout alternative suppliers in Central Asia to mitigate shortages.
• Expand Cross-Border Logistics: With exports 14x higher than imports, Uzbekistan should invest in rail and warehousing near border zones to cut transit costs and speed up deliveries.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Uzbekistan - Afghanistan trade perform in 2024 Q4?

Uzbekistan's exports to Afghanistan grew significantly YoY, reaching $309.40M, while imports from Afghanistan surged to $22.05M, driven by extreme YoY growth in October and December.

What are the top exports from Uzbekistan to Afghanistan?

The top exports include milling industry products (HS Code 11, 37.90% share), likely wheat or flour, along with energy products (HS Code 27) and other agricultural goods (HS Code 07).

What does Uzbekistan import from Afghanistan?

Uzbekistan primarily imports precious metals or gemstones (HS Code 71, 38.72% share), likely gold, reflecting Afghanistan's mineral wealth.

What is the trade balance between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan?

Uzbekistan recorded a trade surplus of $287.35M, with exports 14x higher than imports, indicating a heavily skewed trade relationship in its favor.