Uzbekistan - Azerbaijan Trade 2024 Q4: Surplus Widens

Key Market Takeaways: Uzbekistan - Azerbaijan Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan is marked by Uzbekistan's widening trade surplus amid volatile growth in 2024 Q4.

• Economic Pulse: Uzbekistan posted a $44.09M surplus ($55.57M exports vs. $11.48M imports), driven by Azerbaijan’s import collapse (-47.9% YoY) despite strong Uzbek export growth (+30.1% YoY).
• Exchange Structure: Uzbekistan - Azerbaijan trade statistics reveal a resource-for-consumer goods dynamic: vehicles (HS 87) and agricultural products flow to Azerbaijan, while Uzbekistan relies on sugar (HS 17) and metals.
• Strategic Interdependence: Limited value-chain integration, with Uzbekistan exporting higher-value finished goods and Azerbaijan supplying raw materials.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Uzbekistan-Azerbaijan Trade Trend in Q4 2024

Uzbekistan Export Performance: Shipments to Azerbaijan

• Total Volume: $55.57M in Q4 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context: YoY growth remained strong (+30.1% to +46.5%), though momentum slowed MoM (-6.5% to -25.2%). No policy shifts were reported to explain the decline.
• Key Volatility: November saw the sharpest MoM drop (-25.2%), followed by a milder December contraction (-6.5%).

Uzbekistan Import Performance: Sourcing from Azerbaijan

• Total Volume: $11.48M in Q4 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context: Imports collapsed YoY (-47.9% to -60.3%), with no news to clarify the plunge. MoM declines were consistent (-2.0% to -30.4%).
• Key Volatility: November recorded the steepest MoM fall (-30.4%), while December hit the lowest absolute value ($3.27M).

Uzbekistan - Azerbaijan Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: $44.09M trade surplus for Uzbekistan (Exports $55.57M > Imports $11.48M).
• Relationship Status: Uzbekistan dominates as a net exporter, with Azerbaijan accounting for minimal import demand. The surplus widened sharply due to Azerbaijan’s import collapse.

Uzbekistan Import Trend from Azerbaijan 2024 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Uzbekistan Export Trend to Azerbaijan 2024 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Uzbekistan Azerbaijan Trade Records

Uzbekistan-Azerbaijan Top Trading Products in Q4 2024

Uzbekistan Export Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Sell to Azerbaijan

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS 87 (Vehicles) at 13.50% of total exports to Azerbaijan.
• Demand Driver: Azerbaijan likely imports vehicles for consumer and industrial use, indicating demand for transportation infrastructure.
• Concentration: No single category dominates (>50% share). Exports are diversified across multiple sectors, including agricultural products (HS 08, HS 07) and machinery (HS 84, HS 85).

Uzbekistan Import Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Buy from Azerbaijan

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS 17 (Sugars and sugar confectionery) at 37.40% of total imports from Azerbaijan.
• Dependency Nature: High reliance on sugar imports suggests a food security dependency, possibly due to domestic production gaps.

Uzbekistan - Azerbaijan Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Consumer Goods Trade – Uzbekistan exports vehicles and agricultural products, while importing sugar and metals (HS 76). No clear high-tech or machinery exchange, indicating a basic trade structure.
• Value Chain Position: Uzbekistan holds a slightly higher value-add position, exporting finished goods (vehicles) versus Azerbaijan’s raw or semi-processed goods (sugar, aluminum).

Import Analysis by Product: Azerbaijan to Uzbekistan (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Uzbekistan to Azerbaijan (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Uzbekistan-Azerbaijan Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Uzbekistan’s trade surplus with Azerbaijan is likely to widen further in Q1 2025, driven by sustained demand for Uzbek vehicles (HS 87) and agricultural exports, coupled with Azerbaijan’s weakening import appetite. However, the sharp decline in sugar imports (HS 17) signals potential supply chain disruptions or shifting domestic policies in Azerbaijan that traders should monitor. Without corrective measures, bilateral trade could become increasingly lopsided, risking long-term imbalances.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Export Markets for Sugar-Dependent Sectors: Given Azerbaijan’s collapsing sugar imports, Uzbek food processors should scout alternative suppliers in Kazakhstan or Turkey to mitigate supply shocks.
• Capitalize on Vehicle Export Momentum: Uzbek automakers must expand marketing efforts in Azerbaijan, targeting industrial and consumer segments to lock in market share before regional competitors emerge.
• Probe Azerbaijan’s Import Collapse: Trade delegations should investigate the root cause of Azerbaijan’s import slump—whether it stems from tariffs, logistics bottlenecks, or falling demand—to adjust strategies accordingly.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Uzbekistan - Azerbaijan trade perform in 2024 Q4?

Uzbekistan's exports to Azerbaijan grew YoY (+30.1% to +46.5%) but slowed MoM (-6.5% to -25.2%), totaling $55.57M. Imports from Azerbaijan collapsed YoY (-47.9% to -60.3%), reaching $11.48M.

What are the top exports from Uzbekistan to Azerbaijan?

The top export is HS 87 (Vehicles) at 13.50% of total exports, followed by agricultural products (HS 08, HS 07) and machinery (HS 84, HS 85).

What does Uzbekistan import from Azerbaijan?

The top import is HS 17 (Sugars and sugar confectionery) at 37.40% of total imports, indicating a food security dependency.

What is the trade balance between Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan?

Uzbekistan recorded a $44.09M trade surplus in Q4 2024, with the gap widening due to Azerbaijan’s import collapse.