Peru - Ecuador Trade 2025 Q1: Deficit & Volatility

Key Market Takeaways: Peru - Ecuador Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Peru and Ecuador shows growth in exports but sharp volatility in imports in Q1 2025.

• Economic Pulse: Peru ran an $81.49M trade deficit with Ecuador, driven by a 58.8% plunge in imports after a January surge, while exports grew steadily (+13-24% YoY).
• Exchange Structure: Peru - Ecuador trade statistics reveal a resource-for-resource complementarity—Peru supplies animal feed (HS 23) and industrial inputs, while relying on Ecuador for critical energy (HS 27, 58.8% of imports).
• Strategic Interdependence: Asymmetrical but mutually reinforcing, with Peru holding a higher value-add position in processed goods versus Ecuador’s raw material exports.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Peru-Ecuador Trade Trend in Q1 2025

Peru Export Performance: Shipments to Ecuador

• Total Volume: $277.82M in Q1 2025.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth remained positive (Jan: +23.96%, Feb: +13.01%, Mar: +13.0%), indicating steady demand.
• Key Volatility: February saw the highest MoM growth (+6.4%), while March flattened (+0.08%).

Peru Import Performance: Sourcing from Ecuador

• Total Volume: $359.31M in Q1 2025.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Volatile YoY swings: January surged (+125.93%), but February (-30.36%) and March (-58.25%) contracted sharply.
• Key Volatility: January peaked at $181.93M (MoM +57.83%), followed by a steep drop in February (-44.65%).

Peru - Ecuador Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade deficit of $81.49M (Imports exceeded exports).
• Relationship Status: Peru’s reliance on Ecuadorian goods intensified in January, but imports collapsed thereafter, suggesting inventory adjustments or demand shocks.

Peru Import Trend from Ecuador 2025 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Peru Export Trend to Ecuador 2025 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Peru Ecuador Trade Records

Peru-Ecuador Top Trading Products in Q1 2025

Peru Export Profile: What Does Peru Sell to Ecuador

• Top Commodity: HS Code 23 (Animal feed preparations) dominates with 21.99% of exports.
• Demand Driver: Ecuador likely uses these for agricultural and livestock production, indicating Peru's role in supporting Ecuador's food supply chain.
• Concentration: No single category exceeds 50%, but the top 3 codes (23, 39, 74) account for 35.28%, showing moderate concentration.

Peru Import Profile: What Does Peru Buy from Ecuador

• Top Commodity: HS Code 27 (Mineral fuels, oils) accounts for 58.82% of imports, reflecting heavy reliance.
• Dependency Nature: Energy security dependency, as Peru sources over half its imports from Ecuador in this critical category.

Peru - Ecuador Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Resource Complementarity. Peru exports processed agricultural goods (HS 23) and industrial inputs (HS 39, 74) while importing energy (HS 27) and ores (HS 26) from Ecuador.
• Value Chain Position: Peru holds a slightly higher value-add position, exporting processed goods (e.g., animal feed, plastics) versus Ecuador's raw material exports (fuels, ores). Trade is asymmetrical but mutually reinforcing.

Import Analysis by Product: Ecuador to Peru (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Peru to Ecuador (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Peru-Ecuador Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast for Peru-Ecuador Trade

Peru’s trade with Ecuador is expected to stabilize in Q2 2025, with exports maintaining steady growth due to sustained demand for animal feed (HS 23) and industrial inputs (HS 39, 74). However, the sharp contraction in imports—particularly mineral fuels (HS 27)—suggests Ecuador may face supply-side challenges or Peru is diversifying energy sources. The trade deficit will likely narrow if import volatility persists, but exporters should prepare for potential demand fluctuations in key commodities.

Strategic Moves for Traders & Policymakers

• Diversify Energy Imports: Reduce reliance on Ecuadorian mineral fuels (HS 27) by exploring alternative suppliers or boosting domestic energy production to mitigate supply shocks.
• Lock in Feed Export Contracts: Secure long-term agreements with Ecuadorian agricultural buyers to stabilize revenue streams, given Peru’s competitive edge in animal feed (HS 23).
• Monitor Inventory Shifts: Importers of Ecuadorian goods should adopt flexible inventory strategies to navigate volatile monthly swings, particularly in raw materials like ores (HS 26).

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Peru - Ecuador trade perform in 2025 Q1?

Peru's exports to Ecuador grew steadily (+23.96% YoY in January), while imports from Ecuador were volatile, peaking in January (+125.93%) before sharp declines. Total trade volume reached $277.82M (exports) and $359.31M (imports).

What are the top exports from Peru to Ecuador?

Peru's top exports to Ecuador include animal feed preparations (HS 23), plastics (HS 39), and copper products (HS 74), accounting for 35.28% of total exports.

What does Peru import from Ecuador?

Peru primarily imports mineral fuels and oils (HS 27) from Ecuador, making up 58.82% of total imports, reflecting a heavy reliance on energy resources.

What is the trade balance between Peru and Ecuador?

Peru recorded a trade deficit of $81.49M with Ecuador in Q1 2025, as imports exceeded exports. The gap widened sharply after January due to collapsing imports.