Peru - Ecuador Trade 2024 Q3: Stagnant Deficit Trends

Key Market Takeaways: Peru - Ecuador Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Peru and Ecuador remains stagnant with volatile monthly swings in Q3 2024.

• Deficit-Driven Trade: Peru posted a $250.76M trade deficit, with imports ($501.93M) doubling exports ($251.17M). Both flows showed flat YoY growth, signaling muted demand.
• Resource-for-Energy Exchange: Peru - Ecuador trade statistics reveal a lopsided exchange: Peru supplies agricultural byproducts (26.76% of exports) while relying on Ecuador for 75.57% of its mineral fuel imports.
• Structural Dependency: The partnership hinges on Ecuador’s energy leverage, with Peru locked into a lower-value export position.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Peru-Ecuador Trade Trend in Q3 2024

Peru Export Performance: Shipments to Ecuador

• Total Volume: $251.17M in Q3 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context: YoY growth flat (0.0%), indicating stagnant demand. MoM volatility: August saw an 18.45% rebound after July’s -19.15% drop, followed by a -7.27% dip in September.
• Key Volatility: August’s 18.45% MoM surge was the quarter’s high, though volumes remained below July’s starting point.

Peru Import Performance: Sourcing from Ecuador

• Total Volume: $501.93M in Q3 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context: YoY growth flat (0.0%). MoM swings were extreme: July spiked 324.59% (likely one-off shipments), then corrected with -24.62% in September.
• Key Volatility: July’s $162.95M (324.59% MoM) was the peak; September’s $145.70M marked the lowest monthly volume.

Peru - Ecuador Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Peru ran a trade deficit of $250.76M (Imports $501.93M > Exports $251.17M).
• Relationship Status: Heavy reliance on imports from Ecuador, with exports failing to offset inflows. The deficit suggests structural dependency or uncompetitive export sectors.

Peru Import Trend from Ecuador 2024 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Peru Export Trend to Ecuador 2024 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Peru Ecuador Trade Records

Peru-Ecuador Top Trading Products in Q3 2024

Peru Export Profile: What Does Peru Sell to Ecuador

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS Code 23 (Residues and waste from the food industries) with a 26.76% share.
• Demand Driver: Ecuador likely uses these for animal feed or industrial processing, indicating a raw material dependency.
• Concentration: No single category dominates (>50% share), but HS Code 23 holds a significant quarter of total exports.

Peru Import Profile: What Does Peru Buy from Ecuador

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS Code 27 (Mineral fuels, oils, and distillation products) with a 75.57% share.
• Dependency Nature: Energy security dependency—Peru relies heavily on Ecuador for refined or crude petroleum products.

Peru - Ecuador Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Resource Complementarity—Peru supplies agricultural byproducts (HS 23) and metals (HS 74), while Ecuador fuels Peru’s energy needs (HS 27).
• Value Chain Position: Ecuador holds a higher value-add position in energy (HS 27), while Peru’s exports are lower-value raw materials (HS 23, 74). Trade is lopsided, with energy imports dwarfing Peru’s exports.

Import Analysis by Product: Ecuador to Peru (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Peru to Ecuador (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Peru-Ecuador Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast for Peru-Ecuador Trade

Peru’s trade deficit with Ecuador is likely to persist in Q4 2024, driven by structural reliance on energy imports (HS 27) and stagnant export demand for low-value raw materials (HS 23). Volatility in monthly trade flows—particularly in energy shipments—suggests potential supply chain disruptions or pricing swings ahead. Without diversification or export competitiveness improvements, Peru’s trade imbalance will remain a vulnerability.

Strategic Moves for Traders & Policymakers

• Diversify Energy Sources: Reduce dependency on Ecuador’s mineral fuels (HS 27) by securing alternative suppliers or investing in domestic energy infrastructure.
• Upgrade Export Value Chains: Shift from raw material exports (HS 23) to processed goods by incentivizing agro-industrial capacity, targeting Ecuador’s demand for higher-margin products.
• Lock In Long-Term Contracts: For critical imports like fuel, negotiate fixed-price agreements to mitigate volatility from Ecuador’s erratic monthly shipment patterns.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Peru - Ecuador trade perform in 2024 Q3?

Peru's trade with Ecuador in Q3 2024 showed stagnant demand, with $251.17M in exports and $501.93M in imports, both recording 0.0% YoY growth.

What are the top exports from Peru to Ecuador?

Peru's top export to Ecuador is HS Code 23 (Residues and waste from the food industries), accounting for 26.76% of total exports, likely used for animal feed or industrial processing.

What does Peru import from Ecuador?

Peru's primary import from Ecuador is HS Code 27 (Mineral fuels, oils, and distillation products), making up 75.57% of imports, indicating a heavy reliance on Ecuador for energy.

What is the trade balance between Peru and Ecuador?

Peru recorded a trade deficit of $250.76M with Ecuador in Q3 2024, driven by significantly higher imports ($501.93M) compared to exports ($251.17M).