Peru - Ecuador Trade 2024 Q1: Deficit Widens

Key Market Takeaways: Peru - Ecuador Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Peru and Ecuador remains stable but imbalanced in Q1 2024, with Peru running a significant trade deficit.

• Economic Pulse: Peru posted a $169.89M trade deficit with Ecuador ($408.80M imports vs. $238.91M exports), driven by flat YoY export growth but surging MoM import demand (79.57% spike in February).
• Exchange Structure: Peru - Ecuador trade statistics reveal a resource-for-resource exchange: Peru supplies industrial byproducts (HS 23, 22.29% share) while relying heavily on Ecuadorian energy imports (HS 27, 77.07% share).
• Strategic Interdependence: The partnership reflects asymmetric dependency, with Ecuador holding leverage via critical fuel exports while Peru’s lower-value exports lack pricing power.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Peru-Ecuador Trade Trend in Q1 2024

Peru Export Performance: Shipments to Ecuador

• Total Volume: $238.91M in Q1 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context: YoY data shows no change (0.0% for all months), indicating stable demand. No significant MoM growth after February’s 16.72% surge.
• Key Volatility: February saw the highest MoM jump (16.72%), while March flattened near 0% growth.

Peru Import Performance: Sourcing from Ecuador

• Total Volume: $408.80M in Q1 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context: YoY data remains flat (0.0%), but MoM spikes in February (79.57%) and March (27.02%) suggest accelerating procurement.
• Key Volatility: February dominated with the sharpest MoM rise (79.57%), followed by sustained high imports in March.

Peru - Ecuador Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade deficit of $169.89M (Imports $408.80M > Exports $238.91M).
• Relationship Status: Peru’s heavy reliance on Ecuadorian imports underscores a structural dependency, with no immediate rebalancing in Q1.

Peru Import Trend from Ecuador 2024 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Peru Export Trend to Ecuador 2024 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Peru Ecuador Trade Records

Peru-Ecuador Top Trading Products in Q1 2024

Peru Export Profile: What Does Peru Sell to Ecuador

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS Code 23 (Residues and waste from the food industries) with a 22.29% share.
• Demand Driver: Ecuador likely uses these for industrial processing, such as animal feed or biofuel production.
• Concentration: Trade is moderately diversified, with no single category exceeding 50% share.

Peru Import Profile: What Does Peru Buy from Ecuador

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS Code 27 (Mineral fuels, oils, and distillation products) with a 77.07% share.
• Dependency Nature: Reflects energy security dependency, as Peru relies heavily on Ecuador for fuel supplies.

Peru - Ecuador Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Resource Complementarity. Peru exports industrial byproducts (HS 23) and imports energy (HS 27), indicating a raw material exchange.
• Value Chain Position: Ecuador holds a stronger position in energy exports (high-value, essential), while Peru’s exports are lower-value industrial residues.

Import Analysis by Product: Ecuador to Peru (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Peru to Ecuador (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Peru-Ecuador Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Peru’s trade deficit with Ecuador is likely to persist in Q2 2024, driven by continued reliance on Ecuadorian mineral fuels (HS 27) and stagnant export growth. The flat YoY performance in exports suggests limited near-term expansion, while surging MoM imports indicate rising energy demand. Without diversification, Peru’s structural dependency on Ecuador will deepen, exposing its economy to supply chain vulnerabilities. Traders should prepare for sustained asymmetry in this resource-for-resource exchange.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Energy Sources: Reduce dependency on Ecuadorian fuel imports by securing alternative suppliers or investing in domestic energy infrastructure.
• Add Value to Exports: Upgrade industrial residues (HS 23) into higher-margin products (e.g., processed biofuels) to capture more value from Ecuador’s demand.
• Negotiate Long-Term Contracts: Lock in stable pricing for critical imports (HS 27) to mitigate volatility risks, while pushing for reciprocal trade incentives to boost Peruvian exports.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Peru - Ecuador trade perform in 2024 Q1?

Peru's exports to Ecuador totaled $238.91M, showing stable YoY growth (0.0%), while imports from Ecuador reached $408.80M, with notable MoM spikes in February (79.57%) and March (27.02%).

What are the top exports from Peru to Ecuador?

Peru's top export to Ecuador is HS Code 23 (Residues and waste from the food industries), accounting for 22.29% of total exports, likely used for industrial processing like animal feed or biofuel.

What does Peru import from Ecuador?

Peru's primary import from Ecuador is HS Code 27 (Mineral fuels, oils, and distillation products), representing 77.07% of total imports, highlighting Peru's energy security dependency on Ecuador.

What is the trade balance between Peru and Ecuador?

Peru recorded a trade deficit of $169.89M with Ecuador in Q1 2024, driven by higher imports ($408.80M) than exports ($238.91M), indicating a structural dependency with no immediate rebalancing.