Paraguay - Russia Trade 2023 Q3: Resource Swap Surplus

Key Market Takeaways: Paraguay - Russia Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Paraguay and Russia shows growth with high volatility in Q3 2023.

• Economic Pulse: Paraguay holds a $82.14M trade surplus with Russia ($114.92M exports vs. $32.78M imports), but both sides face sharp monthly swings in trade volumes.
• Exchange Structure: Paraguay - Russia trade statistics reveal a resource-for-resource exchange—oil seeds (69% of exports) for mineral fuels (67% of imports), with minimal value-added processing.
• Strategic Interdependence: The relationship is narrow but complementary, anchored in raw material swaps without deeper supply chain integration.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Paraguay-Russia Trade Trend in Q3 2023

Paraguay Export Performance: Shipments to Russia

• Total Volume: $114.92M in Q3 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY declines in July (-55.56%) and September (-34.96%) were offset by a 15.6% YoY rise in August.
  • No news context to explain volatility.
• Key Volatility: August saw a 197.11% MoM surge, while September dropped 58.92% MoM.

Paraguay Import Performance: Sourcing from Russia

• Total Volume: $32.78M in Q3 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Steep YoY declines in August (-62.54%) and September (-71.2%) dragged down the quarter.
• Key Volatility: July spiked 377.37% MoM before collapsing 60.79% in August.

Paraguay - Russia Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade surplus of $82.14M (Exports $114.92M > Imports $32.78M).
• Relationship Status: Paraguay is a net exporter to Russia, with exports 3.5x higher than imports. Volatility in both directions suggests uneven trade flows.

Paraguay Import Trend from Russia 2023 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Paraguay Export Trend to Russia 2023 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Paraguay Russia Trade Records

Paraguay-Russia Top Trading Products in Q3 2023

Paraguay Export Profile: What Does Paraguay Sell to Russia

• Top Commodity: HS Code 12 (Oil seeds and oleaginous fruits) dominates at 69.20% of exports.
• Demand Driver: Russia likely uses these for industrial processing, possibly in food or biofuel production.
• Concentration: Extreme—over 69% of exports come from a single category.

Paraguay Import Profile: What Does Paraguay Buy from Russia

• Top Commodity: HS Code 27 (Mineral fuels, oils) accounts for 67.47% of imports.
• Dependency Nature: Energy security dependency, as Paraguay relies on Russian oil and fuel.

Paraguay - Russia Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Resource Complementarity. Paraguay exports agricultural raw materials (oil seeds) in exchange for Russian energy (mineral fuels).
• Value Chain Position: Both sides trade low-value-added raw materials, with no clear high-value-add dominance.

Import Analysis by Product: Russia to Paraguay (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Paraguay to Russia (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Paraguay-Russia Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast for Paraguay-Russia Trade

The Paraguay-Russia trade relationship is likely to remain volatile in the near term, given the erratic monthly swings in both exports and imports. While Paraguay maintains a strong trade surplus, the heavy reliance on single commodities (oil seeds for exports, mineral fuels for imports) exposes both sides to price shocks and supply chain disruptions. Expect Russia to prioritize energy security, potentially tightening fuel exports, while Paraguay’s agricultural shipments could face competition from other suppliers. Traders should brace for uneven demand, with Q4 2023 likely mirroring Q3’s instability unless new contracts stabilize flows.

Strategic Moves for Traders & Policymakers

• Diversify Export Markets: Paraguay must reduce dependence on Russian demand for oil seeds by targeting alternative buyers in Asia or the EU, mitigating risk from sudden import drops.
• Lock in Energy Supply Contracts: Paraguayan importers should negotiate multi-year agreements with Russian fuel suppliers to hedge against price spikes and ensure stable energy access.
• Invest in Value-Added Processing: Both nations should explore upgrading raw material trade (e.g., Paraguay refining oil seeds into biofuels, Russia supplying processed fuels) to capture higher margins and reduce volatility.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Paraguay - Russia trade perform in 2023 Q3?

Paraguay exported $114.92M to Russia and imported $32.78M, with mixed YoY growth trends—August saw a 15.6% rise, while July and September declined sharply.

What are the top exports from Paraguay to Russia?

Oil seeds and oleaginous fruits (HS Code 12) dominate, accounting for 69.20% of Paraguay’s exports to Russia.

What does Paraguay import from Russia?

Mineral fuels and oils (HS Code 27) are the top imports, making up 67.47% of Paraguay’s purchases from Russia.

What is the trade balance between Paraguay and Russia?

Paraguay recorded a trade surplus of $82.14M, with exports 3.5x higher than imports in Q3 2023.