Paraguay - Russia Trade 2023 Q4: Surplus-Driven Exchange

Key Market Takeaways: Paraguay - Russia Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Paraguay and Russia strengthened in Q4 2023, with Paraguay maintaining a dominant export position amid volatile Russian import demand.

• Surplus-Driven Trade: Paraguay posted a $37.23M surplus with Russia, exporting $57.45M (led by meat) while imports collapsed -93.57% YoY (fertilizers, fuels).
• Resource-for-Input Exchange: Paraguay - Russia trade statistics reveal an asymmetric dependency—agricultural exports (58.75% meat) fund critical Russian industrial imports (96.18% fertilizers & fuels).
• Strategic Fragility: Russia’s role as a supplier of key agricultural inputs (fertilizers) creates one-sided vulnerability for Paraguay’s agro-export model.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Paraguay-Russia Trade Trend in Q4 2023

Paraguay Export Performance: Shipments to Russia

• Total Volume: Paraguay exported a total of 57.45M to Russia in Q4 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Exports showed strong YoY growth in October (+77.13%) and November (+78.56%), but growth slowed sharply in December (+3.1%).
  • No specific trade news or policy changes were reported to explain these trends.
• Key Volatility: October was the peak month (30.39M), followed by steep MoM declines in November (-42.13%) and December (-46.19%).

Paraguay Import Performance: Sourcing from Russia

• Total Volume: Paraguay imported 20.22M from Russia in Q4 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Imports contracted sharply YoY across all months, with the steepest drop in December (-93.57%).
  • No relevant news or policy shifts were reported to contextualize the decline.
• Key Volatility: October saw the highest imports (13.34M), but values plummeted MoM in November (-62.32%) and December (-63.19%).

Paraguay - Russia Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Paraguay recorded a trade surplus of 37.23M (57.45M exports - 20.22M imports) with Russia in Q4 2023.
• Relationship Status: Paraguay maintained a strong net exporter role, with exports nearly triple the value of imports. The widening surplus reflects declining Russian imports amid robust export performance.

Paraguay Import Trend from Russia 2023 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Paraguay Export Trend to Russia 2023 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Paraguay Russia Trade Records

Paraguay-Russia Top Trading Products in Q4 2023

Paraguay Export Profile: What Does Paraguay Sell to Russia

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS 02 (Meat and edible meat offal) with a 58.75% share.
• Demand Driver: Russia imports these primarily for consumer market needs, indicating strong demand for Paraguayan meat products.
• Concentration: Trade is highly concentrated, with the top two categories (HS 02 and HS 12) accounting for 98.18% of total exports.

Paraguay Import Profile: What Does Paraguay Buy from Russia

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS 31 (Fertilizers) with a 48.58% share, followed closely by HS 27 (Mineral fuels, oils) at 47.60%.
• Dependency Nature: Paraguay relies on Russia for critical agricultural inputs (fertilizers) and energy supplies (mineral fuels), highlighting a strategic dependency in these sectors.

Paraguay - Russia Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity—Paraguay exports agricultural products (meat, oilseeds) to Russia, while importing fertilizers and energy in return.
• Value Chain Position: Russia holds the higher value-add position, supplying industrial inputs (fertilizers, fuels), while Paraguay provides raw agricultural goods. The trade is asymmetric, with Paraguay dependent on Russian industrial output.

Import Analysis by Product: Russia to Paraguay (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Paraguay to Russia (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Paraguay-Russia Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

The Paraguay-Russia trade relationship is poised for continued growth in 2024, driven by sustained Russian demand for Paraguayan meat (HS 02) and oilseeds (HS 12). However, the sharp decline in Russian imports—particularly fertilizers (HS 31) and mineral fuels (HS 27)—signals potential supply chain risks for Paraguay’s agricultural sector. Traders should anticipate volatility in Q1 2024, with export growth likely moderating after the Q4 surge. The widening trade surplus may incentivize Russia to seek rebalancing through trade policy adjustments or import diversification.

Strategic Moves

• Secure Long-term Fertilizer Contracts: Paraguayan agribusinesses must lock in stable pricing and supply terms with Russian producers to mitigate input cost shocks.
• Diversify Energy Suppliers: Reduce dependency on Russian mineral fuels by exploring alternative markets in the Middle East or Latin America.
• Expand Meat Export Channels: Capitalize on Russia’s consumer demand by negotiating direct contracts with Russian distributors, bypassing intermediaries to capture higher margins.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Paraguay - Russia trade perform in 2023 Q4?

Paraguay exported $57.45M to Russia, showing strong YoY growth in October and November, while imports from Russia fell sharply to $20.22M, resulting in a widening trade surplus.

What are the top exports from Paraguay to Russia?

The top export is HS 02 (Meat and edible meat offal), accounting for 58.75% of total exports, followed by HS 12 (Oilseeds and misc. grains).

What does Paraguay import from Russia?

Paraguay primarily imports HS 31 (Fertilizers) and HS 27 (Mineral fuels, oils), which together make up 96.18% of total imports.

What is the trade balance between Paraguay and Russia?

Paraguay recorded a trade surplus of $37.23M with Russia in Q4 2023, as exports nearly tripled imports, widening the surplus.