Paraguay - Russia Trade 2023 Q2: Collapsing Trade Volumes

Key Market Takeaways: Paraguay - Russia Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Paraguay and Russia shows collapsing trade volumes in 2023 Q2, signaling strained ties.

• Economic Pulse: Paraguay holds a $26.94M trade surplus with Russia ($34.19M exports vs. $7.25M imports), but both sides face severe YoY declines—exports down 39-74%, imports down 84-99%.
• Exchange Structure: Paraguay - Russia trade statistics reveal a resource-for-input model: meat (95% of exports) for fertilizers (95% of imports), highlighting extreme commodity concentration.
• Strategic Interdependence: The relationship is transactional and fragile, with Russia supplying critical agricultural inputs while Paraguay exports low-value meat products.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Paraguay-Russia Trade Trend in Q2 2023

Paraguay Export Performance: Shipments to Russia

• Total Volume: $34.19M in Q2 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context: YoY declines persisted across all months (-39.81% in Apr, -39.67% in May, -74.09% in Jun), reflecting sustained contraction. No news drivers were reported.
• Key Volatility: May saw a 24.81% MoM surge, but June reversed with a -16.49% drop.

Paraguay Import Performance: Sourcing from Russia

• Total Volume: $7.25M in Q2 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context: YoY plummeted severely (-84.66% in Apr, -98.85% in May, -89.27% in Jun), indicating near-collapse in demand or supply. No news context provided.
• Key Volatility: June imports spiked 671.36% MoM after an -85.04% crash in May, suggesting erratic shipments.

Paraguay - Russia Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade surplus of $26.94M (Exports $34.19M > Imports $7.25M).
• Relationship Status: Paraguay dominates as a net exporter, but both sides show collapsing trade volumes YoY, signaling strained or shrinking bilateral ties.

Paraguay Import Trend from Russia 2023 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Paraguay Export Trend to Russia 2023 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Paraguay Russia Trade Records

Paraguay-Russia Top Trading Products in Q2 2023

Paraguay Export Profile: What Does Paraguay Sell to Russia

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS Code 02 (Meat and edible meat offal), accounting for 95.28% of total exports to Russia.
• Demand Driver: Russia imports these products to serve its consumer market, likely due to domestic demand for meat products.
• Concentration: Trade is highly concentrated, with a single category (HS Code 02) dominating over 95% of exports.

Paraguay Import Profile: What Does Paraguay Buy from Russia

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS Code 31 (Fertilizers), making up 94.94% of total imports from Russia.
• Dependency Nature: This reflects raw material dependency, as Paraguay relies on Russian fertilizers for agricultural production.

Paraguay - Russia Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity—Paraguay exports meat (consumer goods) to Russia while importing fertilizers (industrial inputs).
• Value Chain Position: Russia holds the higher value-add position, supplying critical agricultural inputs, while Paraguay exports low-processed goods.

Import Analysis by Product: Russia to Paraguay (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Paraguay to Russia (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Paraguay-Russia Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

The Paraguay-Russia trade relationship faces significant headwinds in the near term, with both exports and imports experiencing steep YoY declines. The near-collapse in Russian fertilizer imports (-84.66% to -98.85% YoY) and sustained contraction in Paraguayan meat exports (-39.81% to -74.09% YoY) suggest a period of consolidation rather than recovery. However, the erratic MoM volatility—such as June’s 671.36% import spike—indicates potential for short-term opportunistic trade. Given Russia’s critical role as a fertilizer supplier and Paraguay’s dominance in meat exports, the relationship remains structurally complementary but vulnerable to external shocks.

Strategic Moves

• Secure Alternative Fertilizer Suppliers: Paraguay’s heavy reliance on Russian fertilizers (94.94% of imports) exposes its agricultural sector to supply disruptions. Traders must diversify sourcing to mitigate risk, targeting producers in the Middle East or Southeast Asia.
• Lock in Meat Export Contracts: With meat (HS Code 02) accounting for 95.28% of exports to Russia, Paraguayan producers should negotiate long-term agreements with Russian buyers to stabilize revenue amid volatile demand.
• Monitor Sanctions and Logistics: Given Russia’s geopolitical isolation, exporters must stay alert to potential payment barriers or shipping delays. Use intermediaries in neutral hubs like Turkey or the UAE to ensure continuity.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Paraguay - Russia trade perform in 2023 Q2?

Paraguay's exports to Russia totaled $34.19M, while imports were $7.25M, with both showing significant YoY declines (-39.81% to -98.85%).

What are the top exports from Paraguay to Russia?

Meat and edible meat offal (HS Code 02) dominated, accounting for 95.28% of Paraguay's exports to Russia.

What does Paraguay import from Russia?

Fertilizers (HS Code 31) were the top import, making up 94.94% of Paraguay's total imports from Russia.

What is the trade balance between Paraguay and Russia?

Paraguay had a trade surplus of $26.94M in Q2 2023, with exports exceeding imports, though both sides saw collapsing trade volumes YoY.