Paraguay - Brazil Trade 2025 Q1: Deficit & Recovery
Key Market Takeaways: Paraguay - Brazil Trade
The bilateral trade relationship between Paraguay and Brazil shows mixed growth and volatility in Q1 2025.
- Economic Pulse: Paraguay runs a $156.9M trade deficit with Brazil, importing $937.43M (mostly machinery) while exporting $780.53M (dominated by mineral fuels). March saw tentative export recovery (+2.16% YoY).
- Exchange Structure: Paraguay - Brazil trade statistics reveal a resource-for-tech complementarity—raw materials (51.35% of exports) flow north, while high-value machinery (HS 84, 14.38% of imports) moves south.
- Strategic Interdependence: Brazil’s value-chain dominance persists, but Paraguay’s March rebound hints at rebalancing potential in this asymmetric partnership.
This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.
Paraguay-Brazil Trade Trend in Q1 2025
Paraguay Export Performance: Shipments to Brazil
- Total Volume: $780.53M in Q1 2025.
- Growth Trend & Context: Mixed YoY performance—January saw an 11.69% decline, but March rebounded with 2.16% growth. No significant news to explain fluctuations.
- Key Volatility: January had the highest MoM jump (+10.75%), while February dipped slightly (-1.99%).
Paraguay Import Performance: Sourcing from Brazil
- Total Volume: $937.43M in Q1 2025.
- Growth Trend & Context: Strong YoY growth in January (+13.22%) and February (+15.3%), but March dropped 4.11%. No news to contextualize the shift.
- Key Volatility: January recorded the sharpest MoM decline (-16.43%), followed by smaller drops in February and March.
Paraguay - Brazil Trade Balance & Market Dynamics
- Net Position: Trade deficit of $156.9M (Imports exceeded exports).
- Relationship Status: Paraguay remains a net importer from Brazil, though export recovery in March suggests potential rebalancing.
Paraguay Import Trend from Brazil 2025 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 326.95M | -16.43% | 13.22% |
| Feb | 312.41M | -4.45% | 15.3% |
| Mar | 298.07M | -4.59% | -4.11% |
| Total | 937.43M | - | - |
Paraguay Export Trend to Brazil 2025 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 262.92M | 10.75% | -11.69% |
| Feb | 257.70M | -1.99% | 0.46% |
| Mar | 259.91M | 0.86% | 2.16% |
| Total | 780.53M | - | - |
Get Historical Paraguay Brazil Trade Records
Paraguay-Brazil Top Trading Products in Q1 2025
Paraguay Export Profile: What Does Paraguay Sell to Brazil
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS 27 (Mineral fuels, oils) at 28.48% of total exports.
- Demand Driver: Brazil imports these for industrial processing (energy inputs).
- Concentration: The top 2 categories (HS 27 and HS 10) dominate 51.35% of exports, indicating high reliance on raw materials.
Paraguay Import Profile: What Does Paraguay Buy from Brazil
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS 84 (Nuclear reactors, machinery) at 14.38% of total imports.
- Dependency Nature: Reflects critical technology dependency (machinery/industrial equipment).
Paraguay - Brazil Trade Relationship Dynamics
- The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity—Paraguay supplies raw materials (fuels, crops) while Brazil provides machinery and manufactured goods.
- Value Chain Position: Brazil holds the higher value-add position, exporting complex machinery (HS 84, 85) versus Paraguay’s commodity-heavy exports (HS 27, 10).
Import Analysis by Product: Brazil to Paraguay (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 84 | 134.79M | 14.38% |
| 87 | 82.16M | 8.76% |
| 39 | 61.59M | 6.57% |
| 85 | 58.25M | 6.21% |
| 27 | 51.58M | 5.50% |
| 22 | 43.90M | 4.68% |
| 48 | 40.77M | 4.35% |
| 31 | 32.46M | 3.46% |
| 38 | 27.69M | 2.95% |
| 73 | 21.87M | 2.33% |
Export Analysis by Product: Paraguay to Brazil (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | 222.33M | 28.48% |
| 10 | 178.51M | 22.87% |
| 85 | 69.97M | 8.96% |
| 12 | 38.52M | 4.93% |
| 76 | 37.02M | 4.74% |
| 02 | 33.70M | 4.32% |
| 15 | 30.41M | 3.90% |
| 63 | 23.40M | 3.00% |
| 39 | 15.58M | 2.00% |
| 61 | 15.16M | 1.94% |
Check Detailed Paraguay-Brazil Trade HS Code Breakdown
Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations
Forecast
The Paraguay-Brazil trade relationship in Q2 2025 is likely to stabilize with moderate growth, driven by Paraguay’s recovering exports (notably HS 27 mineral fuels) and Brazil’s sustained demand for industrial inputs. However, the persistent trade deficit signals vulnerability to price swings in commodities. Exporters should anticipate tighter margins, while importers may face higher costs if Brazil’s machinery (HS 84) supply remains constrained. The March rebound in Paraguayan exports suggests potential for rebalancing, but structural reliance on raw materials limits upside without diversification.
Strategic Moves
- Lock in Fuel Contracts: Paraguayan energy exporters must secure long-term agreements with Brazilian industrial buyers to mitigate volatility in HS 27 shipments and stabilize revenue.
- Diversify Import Sources: Reduce dependency on Brazilian machinery (HS 84) by exploring alternative suppliers in Mercosur or Asia to weaken Brazil’s pricing leverage.
- Push Agro-Exports: Capitalize on Brazil’s demand for Paraguayan crops (HS 10) by negotiating preferential tariffs, leveraging Mercosur frameworks to offset the trade deficit.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Paraguay - Brazil trade perform in 2025 Q1?
Paraguay's exports to Brazil totaled $780.53M, with mixed YoY growth, while imports from Brazil reached $937.43M, showing strong early-year growth but a March decline.
What are the top exports from Paraguay to Brazil?
The top exports are HS 27 (Mineral fuels, oils) and HS 10 (Cereals), together accounting for 51.35% of Paraguay's exports to Brazil.
What does Paraguay import from Brazil?
The top import is HS 84 (Nuclear reactors, machinery), representing 14.38% of total imports, highlighting Paraguay's reliance on Brazilian industrial equipment.
What is the trade balance between Paraguay and Brazil?
Paraguay recorded a trade deficit of $156.9M with Brazil in Q1 2025, though March's export rebound suggests potential rebalancing.
Paraguay - Brazil Trade 2024 Q4: Deficit-Driven Exchange
Paraguay's trade deficit with Brazil hit $301.32M in Q4 2024, driven by mineral fuel exports and machinery imports. Explore Paraguay-Brazil trade trends and top trading products via yTrade data.
Paraguay - Brazil Trade 2025 Q2: Deficit Deepens
Paraguay's trade deficit with Brazil hit $212.64M in Q2 2025, fueled by a surge in machinery imports. Explore Paraguay Brazil trade trends and top trading products on yTrade.
