Paraguay - Brazil Trade 2025 Q2: Deficit Deepens

Key Market Takeaways: Paraguay - Brazil Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Paraguay and Brazil showed volatility with a widening deficit in Q2 2025.

• Deficit Deepens: Paraguay’s trade gap hit $212.64M as imports ($1.06B) outpaced exports ($847.36M), driven by a June import surge (+11.01% MoM).
• Resource-for-Tech Trade: Paraguay - Brazil trade statistics reveal a lopsided exchange: fuels and grains (60.7% of exports) for machinery and electronics (26.8% of imports).
• Asymmetric Interdependence: Brazil holds the value-add edge, with Paraguay reliant on its neighbor for critical industrial goods.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Paraguay-Brazil Trade Trend in Q2 2025

Paraguay Export Performance: Shipments to Brazil

• Total Volume: $847.36M in Q2 2025.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth was volatile: April (-17.56%), May (-20.41%), June (+1.11%). The rebound in June suggests partial recovery from earlier declines.
  • No specific trade news to explain the trends.
• Key Volatility: May saw the sharpest MoM jump (+8.91%), while June flattened (+0.21%).

Paraguay Import Performance: Sourcing from Brazil

• Total Volume: $1.06B in Q2 2025.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY shifts: April (-5.45%), May (+3.5%), June (+8.78%), reflecting strengthening demand mid-quarter.
  • No relevant news to contextualize the data.
• Key Volatility: June imports surged 11.01% MoM, marking the highest monthly value ($383.93M).

Paraguay - Brazil Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade deficit of $212.64M (Imports exceeded exports).
• Relationship Status: Paraguay remains a net importer from Brazil, with reliance intensifying in June. The deficit widened due to import growth outpacing exports.

Paraguay Import Trend from Brazil 2025 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Paraguay Export Trend to Brazil 2025 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Paraguay Brazil Trade Records

Paraguay-Brazil Top Trading Products in Q2 2025

Paraguay Export Profile: What Does Paraguay Sell to Brazil

• Top Commodity: HS Code 27 (Mineral fuels, oils) dominates at 29.93% of total exports.
• Demand Driver: Brazil uses these for industrial processing and energy needs.
• Concentration: The top 3 exports (HS 27, 10, 12) account for 60.74%, indicating moderate reliance on a few key commodities.

Paraguay Import Profile: What Does Paraguay Buy from Brazil

• Top Commodity: HS Code 84 (Machinery, nuclear reactors) leads at 12.83% of imports.
• Dependency Nature: Critical technology dependency, with machinery and electronics (HS 84, 85, 87) making up 26.84% of imports.

Paraguay - Brazil Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Paraguay supplies raw materials (fuels, grains) while Brazil provides machinery and industrial goods.
• Value Chain Position: Brazil holds the higher value-add position, exporting complex manufactured goods (HS 84, 87, 88) versus Paraguay’s commodity-heavy exports.

Import Analysis by Product: Brazil to Paraguay (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Paraguay to Brazil (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Paraguay-Brazil Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Paraguay’s trade with Brazil is expected to stabilize in Q3 2025, with exports likely recovering further as demand for mineral fuels (HS 27) and agricultural goods (HS 10, 12) holds steady. However, the widening trade deficit signals persistent structural reliance on Brazilian machinery and industrial imports (HS 84, 85, 87), which will continue to pressure Paraguay’s trade balance. Without diversification, volatility in commodity prices or Brazilian supply chain disruptions could exacerbate the deficit. The Paraguay-Brazil trade forecast hinges on Paraguay’s ability to secure favorable terms for raw material exports while reducing import dependency.

Strategic Moves

• Lock in Fuel Export Contracts: Paraguayan exporters of mineral fuels (HS 27) should negotiate long-term agreements with Brazilian buyers to stabilize revenue amid fluctuating demand and prices.
• Diversify Import Sources: Paraguayan importers must reduce overreliance on Brazilian machinery (HS 84) by exploring alternative suppliers in Argentina or China to mitigate cost and supply risks.
• Boost Value-Added Exports: Paraguay should incentivize processing of raw materials (e.g., refining fuels or milling grains) before export to capture higher margins and reduce the commodity-heavy trade imbalance.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Paraguay - Brazil trade perform in 2025 Q2?

Paraguay exported $847.36M to Brazil, with volatile YoY growth, while imports from Brazil totaled $1.06B, showing a mid-quarter demand surge.

What are the top exports from Paraguay to Brazil?

The top exports are Mineral fuels, oils (HS 27), along with other key commodities, accounting for 60.74% of total exports.

What does Paraguay import from Brazil?

Paraguay primarily imports Machinery and nuclear reactors (HS 84), with technology-heavy goods (HS 84, 85, 87) making up 26.84% of imports.

What is the trade balance between Paraguay and Brazil?

Paraguay had a trade deficit of $212.64M, with the gap widening due to faster import growth compared to exports.