Paraguay - Brazil Trade 2024 Q4: Deficit-Driven Exchange

Key Market Takeaways: Paraguay - Brazil Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Paraguay and Brazil showed mixed growth with high volatility in Q4 2024.

• Deficit-Driven Trade: Paraguay posted a $301.32M trade deficit with Brazil ($1.15B imports vs. $848.68M exports), reflecting sustained reliance on Brazilian goods despite narrowing slightly from Q3.
• Resource-for-Tech Exchange: Paraguay - Brazil trade statistics reveal a lopsided exchange—Paraguay supplies mineral fuels and grains (53.2% of exports) while importing machinery and industrial goods (12.7% top import).
• Asymmetric Interdependence: Brazil holds the value-add advantage, with Paraguay locked into a primary commodity exporter role.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Paraguay-Brazil Trade Trend in Q4 2024

Paraguay Export Performance: Shipments to Brazil

• Total Volume: $848.68M in Q4 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth was mixed, with October (+21.29%) and November (+11.24%) showing strong gains, but December (-8.13%) reversed the trend.
  • No specific trade news or policy changes were reported to explain these fluctuations.
• Key Volatility: December saw a sharp MoM decline (-20.87%), the steepest drop in the quarter.

Paraguay Import Performance: Sourcing from Brazil

• Total Volume: $1.15B in Q4 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth was positive in October (+12.94%) and December (+8.47%), but November (-6.77%) dragged down the quarter.
  • No external events were cited to contextualize the trends.
• Key Volatility: October recorded the highest MoM surge (+29.72%), while November fell sharply (-16.9%).

Paraguay - Brazil Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Paraguay ran a trade deficit of $301.32M (Imports $1.15B > Exports $848.68M).
• Relationship Status: Paraguay remains a net importer from Brazil, reflecting sustained reliance on Brazilian goods. The deficit narrowed slightly compared to Q3 2024 (no prior data provided for exact comparison).

Paraguay Import Trend from Brazil 2024 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Paraguay Export Trend to Brazil 2024 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Paraguay Brazil Trade Records

Paraguay-Brazil Top Trading Products in Q4 2024

Paraguay Export Profile: What Does Paraguay Sell to Brazil

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 Export is HS Code 27 (Mineral Fuels, Oils) with a 27.15% share.
• Demand Driver: Brazil uses these for industrial processing and energy needs.
• Concentration: The top two exports (HS 27 and 10) account for 53.20% of total exports, indicating high reliance on a few commodities.

Paraguay Import Profile: What Does Paraguay Buy from Brazil

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 Import is HS Code 84 (Nuclear Reactors, Machinery) with a 12.70% share.
• Dependency Nature: Critical technology dependency, as machinery and equipment dominate imports.

Paraguay - Brazil Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Paraguay exports raw materials (fuels, grains) while importing high-value machinery and industrial goods.
• Value Chain Position: Brazil holds the higher value-add position, supplying advanced manufactured goods, while Paraguay provides primary commodities.

Import Analysis by Product: Brazil to Paraguay (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Paraguay to Brazil (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Paraguay-Brazil Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

The Paraguay-Brazil trade relationship is expected to remain volatile in the near term, driven by fluctuating demand for Paraguay’s key commodity exports (mineral fuels, grains) and Brazil’s industrial machinery imports. While the Q4 2024 deficit narrowed slightly, Paraguay’s heavy reliance on a few export commodities leaves it vulnerable to price swings and seasonal demand shifts. However, Brazil’s steady need for raw materials and Paraguay’s dependence on high-value machinery suggest a stable, if imbalanced, trade flow. Traders should anticipate continued YoY growth with periodic MoM corrections, particularly in energy and agricultural sectors.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Export Markets: Paraguay must reduce over-reliance on Brazil by targeting new buyers for mineral fuels and grains in Asia or Europe, mitigating trade deficit risks.
• Lock in Long-Term Supply Contracts: Brazilian importers of Paraguayan commodities should secure fixed-price agreements to hedge against volatility, especially in energy and agricultural sectors.
• Boost Value-Added Exports: Paraguay should incentivize local processing of raw materials (e.g., refining fuels, milling grains) to capture higher margins and reduce dependency on Brazilian machinery imports.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Paraguay - Brazil trade perform in 2024 Q4?

Paraguay's exports to Brazil totaled $848.68M, with mixed YoY growth (strong in October-November, decline in December). Imports from Brazil reached $1.15B, showing volatility but overall positive YoY trends.

What are the top exports from Paraguay to Brazil?

The top export is HS Code 27 (Mineral Fuels, Oils), accounting for 27.15% of shipments, followed by HS Code 10 (grains), together making up 53.20% of total exports.

What does Paraguay import from Brazil?

The top import is HS Code 84 (Nuclear Reactors, Machinery), representing 12.70% of imports, reflecting Paraguay's reliance on Brazilian industrial and technological goods.

What is the trade balance between Paraguay and Brazil?

Paraguay recorded a trade deficit of $301.32M (imports > exports), though the gap narrowed slightly compared to Q3 2024. Brazil remains a critical supplier.