Paraguay - Brazil Trade 2024 Q3: Resilient Exports, Weaker Imports
Key Market Takeaways: Paraguay - Brazil Trade
The bilateral trade relationship between Paraguay and Brazil shows resilience in exports but weakening import momentum in Q3 2024.
- Economic Pulse: Paraguay posted a $162.56M trade deficit with Brazil, with exports at $927.44M and imports at $1.09B. Export growth remained positive YoY, while imports declined sharply by September.
- Exchange Structure: Paraguay - Brazil trade statistics reveal a resource-for-tech dynamic—Paraguay supplies mineral fuels (29.61% of exports) and cereals, while Brazil dominates with machinery (14.84% of imports).
- Strategic Interdependence: Highly complementary economies, but Brazil holds the higher value-add position, embedding Paraguay in a supplier role for raw materials.
This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.
Paraguay-Brazil Trade Trend in Q3 2024
Paraguay Export Performance: Shipments to Brazil
- Total Volume: $927.44M in Q3 2024.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- YoY growth remained positive across all months (Jul: +8.92%, Aug: +13.21%, Sep: +13.12%), indicating sustained demand.
- Key Volatility: August saw the highest MoM growth (+8.3%), while September dipped (-5.81%).
Paraguay Import Performance: Sourcing from Brazil
- Total Volume: $1.09B in Q3 2024.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- YoY growth was mixed (Jul: +17.83%, Aug: -0.54%, Sep: -10.29%), signaling weakening momentum.
- Key Volatility: July peaked with a 15.59% MoM surge, followed by consecutive declines (-11.67% in August, -11.69% in September).
Paraguay - Brazil Trade Balance & Market Dynamics
- Net Position: Trade deficit of $162.56M (Imports exceeded exports).
- Relationship Status: Paraguay remains reliant on Brazilian imports, though export resilience hints at narrowing dependency.
Paraguay Import Trend from Brazil 2024 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul | 408.00M | 15.59% | 17.83% |
| Aug | 360.40M | -11.67% | -0.54% |
| Sep | 318.27M | -11.69% | -10.29% |
| Total | 1.09B | - | - |
Paraguay Export Trend to Brazil 2024 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul | 298.87M | 3.93% | 8.92% |
| Aug | 323.68M | 8.3% | 13.21% |
| Sep | 304.88M | -5.81% | 13.12% |
| Total | 927.44M | - | - |
Get Historical Paraguay Brazil Trade Records
Paraguay-Brazil Top Trading Products in Q3 2024
Paraguay Export Profile: What Does Paraguay Sell to Brazil
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS 27 (Mineral fuels, oils) at 29.61% of total exports to Brazil.
- Demand Driver: Brazil uses these for industrial processing, likely refining or energy generation.
- Concentration: The top two categories (HS 27 and HS 10) dominate with 52.88% share, indicating high trade concentration.
Paraguay Import Profile: What Does Paraguay Buy from Brazil
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS 84 (Nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery) at 14.84% of total imports from Brazil.
- Dependency Nature: Critical technology dependency, as machinery imports suggest reliance on Brazilian industrial equipment.
Paraguay - Brazil Trade Relationship Dynamics
- The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Paraguay exports raw materials (mineral fuels, cereals) while importing high-value machinery and chemicals from Brazil.
- Value Chain Position: Brazil holds the higher value-add position, supplying advanced industrial goods, while Paraguay provides primary commodities.
Import Analysis by Product: Brazil to Paraguay (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 84 | 161.24M | 14.84% |
| 87 | 108.19M | 9.96% |
| 27 | 69.47M | 6.39% |
| 39 | 68.35M | 6.29% |
| 31 | 60.97M | 5.61% |
| 85 | 60.40M | 5.56% |
| 48 | 48.15M | 4.43% |
| 38 | 47.29M | 4.35% |
| 22 | 40.91M | 3.76% |
| 69 | 23.26M | 2.14% |
Export Analysis by Product: Paraguay to Brazil (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | 274.64M | 29.61% |
| 10 | 215.85M | 23.27% |
| 85 | 76.16M | 8.21% |
| 12 | 45.03M | 4.86% |
| 15 | 37.28M | 4.02% |
| 02 | 34.52M | 3.72% |
| 76 | 32.60M | 3.52% |
| 38 | 23.64M | 2.55% |
| 63 | 21.68M | 2.34% |
| 39 | 19.56M | 2.11% |
Check Detailed Paraguay-Brazil Trade HS Code Breakdown
Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations
Forecast
Paraguay's trade with Brazil is poised for steady growth in Q4 2024, driven by sustained demand for mineral fuels (HS 27) and cereals (HS 10). However, the widening trade deficit ($162.56M in Q3) signals vulnerability to Brazilian import volatility, particularly in machinery (HS 84). Exporters should capitalize on Brazil’s industrial reliance on Paraguayan raw materials, while importers must brace for potential supply chain disruptions given Brazil’s weakening import momentum. The Paraguay-Brazil trade forecast hinges on balancing commodity exports with strategic import diversification to mitigate dependency risks.
Strategic Moves
- Lock in Long-Term Supply Contracts: Paraguayan exporters of mineral fuels and cereals should secure fixed-price agreements with Brazilian industrial buyers to stabilize revenue amid fluctuating demand.
- Diversify Import Sources: Reduce overreliance on Brazilian machinery by exploring alternative suppliers in Mercosur or Asia to hedge against Brazil’s declining export stability.
- Invest in Value-Add Processing: Paraguay must shift from raw commodity exports to semi-processed goods (e.g., refined fuels) to capture higher margins and reduce the trade deficit.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Paraguay - Brazil trade perform in 2024 Q3?
Paraguay's exports to Brazil grew YoY (+8.92% to +13.21%) but imports showed mixed trends (+17.83% to -10.29%). Total trade volume was $927.44M (exports) and $1.09B (imports).
What are the top exports from Paraguay to Brazil?
HS 27 (Mineral fuels, oils) and HS 10 (Cereals) dominate, accounting for 52.88% of Paraguay's exports to Brazil.
What does Paraguay import from Brazil?
HS 84 (Nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery) is the top import, representing 14.84% of total imports, highlighting Paraguay's reliance on Brazilian industrial equipment.
What is the trade balance between Paraguay and Brazil?
Paraguay recorded a trade deficit of $162.56M, with imports exceeding exports, though resilient export growth suggests potential narrowing of the gap.
Paraguay - Brazil Trade 2023 Q4: Deficit Narrows Slightly
Paraguay Brazil trade trend shows a narrowed deficit in Q4 2023, with mineral fuels and machinery as top trading products. Insights from yTrade reveal structural gaps.
Paraguay - Brazil Trade 2024 Q4: Deficit-Driven Exchange
Paraguay's trade deficit with Brazil hit $301.32M in Q4 2024, driven by mineral fuel exports and machinery imports. Explore Paraguay-Brazil trade trends and top trading products via yTrade data.
