Mexico - Mainland China Trade 2024 Q4: Widening Deficit, Tech Swap

Key Market Takeaways: Mexico - Mainland China Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Mexico and Mainland China shows sustained demand but widening imbalance in Q4 2024.

• $36.6B total trade volume masks a $31.7B deficit for Mexico, with Chinese imports growing at double-digit YoY rates (21.1% peak in October).
• Mexico - Mainland China trade statistics reveal a resource-for-tech swap: 48% of Mexican exports are ores (HS 26), while 34% of imports are electronics (HS 85).
• Asymmetric interdependence deepens as Mexico relies on Chinese tech inputs, while China secures raw materials for manufacturing.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Mexico-Mainland China Trade Trend in Q4 2024

Mexico Export Performance: Shipments to Mainland China

• Total Volume: $2.46B in Q4 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context: YoY growth remained positive (5.8% in Oct, 10.33% in Nov, 7.52% in Dec), indicating sustained demand. No news to contextualize.
• Key Volatility: October saw the highest MoM growth (+7.06%), while November and December recorded mild declines (-2.04% and -0.92%, respectively).

Mexico Import Performance: Sourcing from Mainland China

• Total Volume: $34.18B in Q4 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context: YoY growth was robust (21.1% in Oct, 11.28% in Nov, 11.74% in Dec), though momentum slowed after October. No news to explain trends.
• Key Volatility: October posted the highest MoM surge (+14.28%), followed by consecutive declines (-10.49% in Nov, -7.17% in Dec).

Mexico - Mainland China Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade deficit of $31.72B (Imports $34.18B vs. Exports $2.46B).
• Relationship Status: Mexico remains heavily dependent on imports from Mainland China, with imports dwarfing exports by nearly 14x.

Mexico Import Trend from Mainland China 2024 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Mexico Export Trend to Mainland China 2024 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Mexico Mainland China Trade Records

Mexico-Mainland China Top Trading Products in Q4 2024

Mexico Export Profile: What Does Mexico Sell to Mainland China

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS 26 (Ores, slag, and ash) with a 48.24% share.
• Demand Driver: Mainland China uses these raw materials for industrial processing, likely in steel production or other manufacturing sectors.
• Concentration: Trade is highly concentrated, with HS 26 alone accounting for nearly half of total exports to Mainland China.

Mexico Import Profile: What Does Mexico Buy from Mainland China

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS 85 (Electrical machinery and equipment) with a 34.15% share.
• Dependency Nature: Critical technology dependency, as Mexico relies on Mainland China for high-tech components and consumer electronics.

Mexico - Mainland China Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Mexico exports raw materials (ores) and imports high-value machinery and electronics, reflecting a classic resource-for-technology swap.
• Value Chain Position: Mainland China holds the higher value-add position, exporting advanced manufactured goods, while Mexico supplies lower-value raw materials.

Import Analysis by Product: Mainland China to Mexico (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Mexico to Mainland China (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Mexico-Mainland China Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

The Mexico - Mainland China trade relationship is expected to maintain its growth trajectory in 2025, driven by sustained Chinese demand for Mexican raw materials (HS 26) and Mexico’s reliance on Mainland China’s high-tech exports (HS 85). However, the widening trade deficit ($31.72B in Q4 2024) signals vulnerability to supply chain disruptions or shifts in Chinese industrial policy. Exporters should anticipate steady but modest growth in ores and slag shipments, while importers must prepare for potential volatility in electronics and machinery supply due to geopolitical or logistical risks.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Export Markets: Mexican miners and raw material suppliers should reduce dependence on Mainland China by targeting alternative buyers in Southeast Asia or India to mitigate concentration risk.
• Lock in Tech Supply Contracts: Importers of Chinese electronics (HS 85) must secure long-term agreements with key suppliers to hedge against price fluctuations and ensure stable access to critical components.
• Invest in Value-Added Processing: Mexico should prioritize domestic processing of raw materials (e.g., refining ores into higher-value metals) to capture more trade value and reduce the resource-for-tech imbalance.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Mexico - Mainland China trade perform in 2024 Q4?

Mexico's exports to Mainland China grew YoY (5.8%-10.33%) to $2.46B, while imports surged 11.28%-21.1% to $34.18B, showing robust but slowing demand.

What are the top exports from Mexico to Mainland China?

HS 26 (Ores, slag, and ash) dominated, accounting for 48.24% of Mexico’s exports to Mainland China, reflecting raw material demand for industrial processing.

What does Mexico import from Mainland China?

HS 85 (Electrical machinery and equipment) was the top import, representing 34.15% of shipments, highlighting Mexico’s reliance on Mainland China for high-tech components.

What is the trade balance between Mexico and Mainland China?

Mexico faced a $31.72B trade deficit (Imports $34.18B vs. Exports $2.46B), with imports nearly 14x higher than exports.