Mexico - Mainland China Trade 2024 Q3: Deficit Deepens

Key Market Takeaways: Mexico - Mainland China Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Mexico and Mainland China shows cooling demand and structural reliance in Q3 2024.

• Deficit Deepens: Mexico’s trade gap with China hit $32.41B (imports $34.61B > exports $2.20B), with slowing YoY growth in Chinese imports (-9.56% MoM in September).
• Resource-for-Tech Exchange: Mexico - Mainland China trade statistics reveal a lopsided flow: 49.48% of Mexico’s exports are ores (HS 26), while 32.23% of imports are electrical machinery (HS 85).
• Asymmetric Interdependence: Mexico remains a raw material supplier to China’s industrial base, while relying heavily on Chinese tech—a dependency 15.7x larger than its export earnings.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Mexico-Mainland China Trade Trend in Q3 2024

Mexico Export Performance: Shipments to Mainland China

• Total Volume: $2.20B in Q3 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context: YoY growth turned negative in September (-2.75%), reversing earlier gains (July: +8.18%, August: +1.22%). No trade policy shifts were reported to explain the decline.
• Key Volatility: July saw a sharp MoM drop (-23.85%), followed by recovery in August (+11.4%) and September (+4.2%).

Mexico Import Performance: Sourcing from Mainland China

• Total Volume: $34.61B in Q3 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context: YoY growth slowed significantly (July: +23.07%, August: +17.59%, September: +6.97%), suggesting cooling demand or inventory adjustments. No news to contextualize the trend.
• Key Volatility: September imports fell MoM (-9.56%), the steepest quarterly decline, while July posted the strongest MoM rise (+13.88%).

Mexico - Mainland China Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade deficit of $32.41B (Imports $34.61B > Exports $2.20B).
• Relationship Status: Mexico remains heavily import-dependent on Mainland China, with a deficit 15.7x larger than export earnings. The widening gap reflects structural reliance on Chinese goods.

Mexico Import Trend from Mainland China 2024 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Mexico Export Trend to Mainland China 2024 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Mexico Mainland China Trade Records

Mexico-Mainland China Top Trading Products in Q3 2024

Mexico Export Profile: What Does Mexico Sell to Mainland China

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS 26 (Ores, slag, and ash) at 49.48% of total exports to Mainland China.
• Demand Driver: Mainland China uses these raw materials for industrial processing, likely in steel production or other heavy industries.
• Concentration: Trade is highly concentrated, with HS 26 alone accounting for nearly half of all exports.

Mexico Import Profile: What Does Mexico Buy from Mainland China

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS 85 (Electrical machinery and equipment) at 32.23% of total imports from Mainland China.
• Dependency Nature: Critical technology dependency, as these imports likely include semiconductors, consumer electronics, or industrial machinery.

Mexico - Mainland China Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Mexico exports raw materials (ores) while importing high-tech goods (electrical machinery).
• Value Chain Position: Mainland China holds the higher value-add position, supplying advanced manufactured goods, while Mexico provides industrial inputs.

Import Analysis by Product: Mainland China to Mexico (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Mexico to Mainland China (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Mexico-Mainland China Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

The Mexico - Mainland China trade forecast suggests a period of consolidation in Q4 2024, with export growth likely to remain subdued due to weakening demand for industrial inputs (HS 26) in China. Meanwhile, import growth may stabilize at a slower pace as Mexican businesses adjust inventories amid cooling demand for Chinese electronics (HS 85). The structural trade deficit will persist, but volatility in monthly flows calls for cautious planning. Traders should prepare for tighter margins, especially in raw material exports, while importers may benefit from softer pricing in Chinese tech goods.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Export Markets: Mexican miners and raw material suppliers must reduce reliance on China by targeting Southeast Asia and India, where industrial demand is rising.
• Lock in Tech Imports: Importers of Chinese electronics should negotiate long-term contracts now to hedge against potential supply chain disruptions or tariff hikes.
• Boost Value-Added Exports: Mexican manufacturers should pivot toward higher-margin processed goods (e.g., refined metals) to capture more value from the resource-for-tech exchange model.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Mexico - Mainland China trade perform in 2024 Q3?

Mexico's exports to Mainland China totaled $2.20B in Q3 2024, with a YoY decline in September (-2.75%). Imports from Mainland China reached $34.61B, showing slowing YoY growth (6.97% in September).

What are the top exports from Mexico to Mainland China?

The top export from Mexico to Mainland China is HS 26 (Ores, slag, and ash), accounting for 49.48% of total exports, primarily used for industrial processing.

What does Mexico import from Mainland China?

Mexico's top import from Mainland China is HS 85 (Electrical machinery and equipment), making up 32.23% of total imports, including semiconductors and consumer electronics.

What is the trade balance between Mexico and Mainland China?

Mexico recorded a trade deficit of $32.41B with Mainland China in Q3 2024, reflecting heavy reliance on Chinese imports and a widening trade gap.