Mexico - Mainland China Trade 2024 Q2: Record Deficit Deepens

Key Market Takeaways: Mexico - Mainland China Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Mexico and Mainland China remains heavily imbalanced, with Mexico's import dependency deepening in Q2 2024.

• $28.57B Deficit: Mexico’s imports from Mainland China ($30.98B) dwarfed exports ($2.41B), with slowing YoY import growth (+1.49% in June) but volatile export swings (-14.87% YoY drop same month).
• Resource-for-Tech Exchange: Mexico - Mainland China trade statistics show 57.52% of exports are ores (HS 26) for industrial processing, while 32.14% of imports are electrical machinery (HS 85), highlighting a raw-materials-for-tech dependency.
• Asymmetric Complementarity: Mainland China holds the high-value position, exporting finished goods, while Mexico supplies unprocessed inputs—a structural gap with no rebalancing in sight.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Mexico-Mainland China Trade Trend in Q2 2024

Mexico Export Performance: Shipments to Mainland China

• Total Volume: $2.41B in Q2 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth was mixed: +3.33% in April, +15.86% in May, then a sharp -14.87% drop in June.
  • No specific trade news to explain the volatility.
• Key Volatility: June saw a 16.24% MoM surge despite the YoY decline, indicating short-term demand shifts.

Mexico Import Performance: Sourcing from Mainland China

• Total Volume: $30.98B in Q2 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth slowed progressively: +17.34% (April), +4.28% (May), +1.49% (June).
• Key Volatility: June recorded the lowest monthly value ($10.11B) and the steepest MoM drop (-2.77%).

Mexico - Mainland China Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade deficit of $28.57B (Imports exceeded exports by this margin).
• Relationship Status: Mexico remains heavily dependent on imports from Mainland China, with no evidence of rebalancing in Q2.

Mexico Import Trend from Mainland China 2024 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Mexico Export Trend to Mainland China 2024 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Mexico Mainland China Trade Records

Mexico-Mainland China Top Trading Products in Q2 2024

Mexico Export Profile: What Does Mexico Sell to Mainland China

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS 26 (Ores, slag, and ash) at 57.52% of total exports to Mainland China.
• Demand Driver: Mainland China uses these raw materials for industrial processing, likely in steel production or other manufacturing sectors.
• Concentration: Trade is highly concentrated, with HS 26 alone accounting for over half of exports.

Mexico Import Profile: What Does Mexico Buy from Mainland China

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS 85 (Electrical machinery and equipment) at 32.14% of total imports from Mainland China.
• Dependency Nature: Critical technology dependency, as these imports likely include semiconductors, consumer electronics, or industrial machinery.

Mexico - Mainland China Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Mexico supplies raw materials (ores) while Mainland China provides high-tech goods (electrical machinery).
• Value Chain Position: Mainland China holds the higher value-add position, exporting complex manufactured goods, while Mexico primarily exports unprocessed or semi-processed materials.

Import Analysis by Product: Mainland China to Mexico (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Mexico to Mainland China (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Mexico-Mainland China Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast for Mexico - Mainland China Trade

The Mexico - Mainland China trade relationship is expected to remain volatile in the near term, with Mexico’s export growth facing uncertainty due to fluctuating demand for raw materials like ores (HS 26). While Mainland China’s imports of Mexican resources may stabilize, the slowing YoY growth in Chinese exports to Mexico suggests a potential cooling in tech-driven trade. The persistent $28.57B deficit underscores Mexico’s reliance on Chinese high-tech goods, a dynamic unlikely to shift without deliberate intervention. Traders should prepare for uneven demand cycles, particularly in raw materials, while monitoring China’s industrial policies for cues on future ore imports.

Strategic Moves for Traders & Policymakers

• Diversify Export Markets: Mexican exporters must reduce dependence on HS 26 (ores) by identifying secondary commodities with growth potential in China, such as automotive parts or agricultural products, to mitigate volatility.
• Lock in Tech Supply Chains: Importers of Chinese electrical machinery (HS 85) should secure long-term contracts or explore joint ventures to stabilize pricing and ensure consistent access to critical components.
• Push for Value-Add Exports: Mexican industries should prioritize upgrading raw material processing capabilities to capture higher margins, reducing the resource-for-tech imbalance in bilateral trade.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Mexico - Mainland China trade perform in 2024 Q2?

Mexico exported $2.41B to Mainland China with mixed YoY growth, while imports totaled $30.98B with slowing growth. The trade deficit stood at $28.57B.

What are the top exports from Mexico to Mainland China?

HS 26 (Ores, slag, and ash) dominated Mexico's exports to Mainland China, accounting for 57.52% of total shipments.

What does Mexico import from Mainland China?

HS 85 (Electrical machinery and equipment) was the top import, making up 32.14% of Mexico's imports from Mainland China.

What is the trade balance between Mexico and Mainland China?

Mexico recorded a trade deficit of $28.57B in Q2 2024, with imports far exceeding exports. No rebalancing trend was observed.