Mexico - Mainland China Trade 2024 Q1: Widening Deficit

Key Market Takeaways: Mexico - Mainland China Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Mexico and Mainland China shows a widening deficit amid volatile export performance in Q1 2024.

• $30B Deficit: Mexico imported $30.02B from Mainland China (up 17.5% YoY) while exporting just $2.01B, deepening the trade gap to $28.01B.
• Resource-for-Tech Imbalance: Mexico - Mainland China trade statistics reveal a lopsided exchange—49.6% of Mexico’s exports are ores (HS 26), while 35.1% of imports are electrical machinery (HS 85).
• Asymmetric Dependency: Mainland China dominates high-value manufacturing exports, leaving Mexico reliant on raw material sales and tech imports.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Mexico-Mainland China Trade Trend in Q1 2024

Mexico Export Performance: Shipments to Mainland China

• Total Volume: $2.01B in Q1 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context: YoY growth was mixed, with January up 3.19% but February and March declining sharply (-11.12% and -21.72%, respectively). No specific trade news explains this volatility.
• Key Volatility: March saw the highest MoM jump (+12.12%), while January had the steepest drop (-17.67%).

Mexico Import Performance: Sourcing from Mainland China

• Total Volume: $30.02B in Q1 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context: Strong YoY growth across all months (11.79% in January, 19.2% in February, 20.43% in March), indicating sustained demand. No news context provided.
• Key Volatility: March recorded the highest value ($10.38B) and MoM growth (+6.15%), while February dipped slightly (-0.83%).

Mexico - Mainland China Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Mexico ran a trade deficit of $28.01B (Imports $30.02B vs. Exports $2.01B).
• Relationship Status: Heavy reliance on imports from Mainland China, with exports lagging significantly. The deficit underscores Mexico’s net importer role in this trade relationship.

Mexico Import Trend from Mainland China 2024 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Mexico Export Trend to Mainland China 2024 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Mexico Mainland China Trade Records

Mexico-Mainland China Top Trading Products in Q1 2024

Mexico Export Profile: What Does Mexico Sell to Mainland China

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS 26 (Ores, slag, and ash) at 49.59% of total exports.
• Demand Driver: Mainland China uses these raw materials for industrial processing, likely in steel production or other manufacturing sectors.
• Concentration: Trade is highly concentrated, with HS 26 alone accounting for nearly half of all exports.

Mexico Import Profile: What Does Mexico Buy from Mainland China

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS 85 (Electrical machinery and equipment) at 35.11% of total imports.
• Dependency Nature: Critical technology dependency, as these imports likely include semiconductors, consumer electronics, or industrial machinery.

Mexico - Mainland China Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Mexico supplies raw materials (ores) while Mainland China provides high-tech goods (electrical machinery).
• Value Chain Position: Mainland China holds the higher value-add position, exporting advanced manufactured goods, while Mexico primarily exports low-value raw materials.

Import Analysis by Product: Mainland China to Mexico (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Mexico to Mainland China (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Mexico-Mainland China Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

The Mexico-Mainland China trade relationship is expected to remain heavily skewed toward imports, with Mexico’s deficit likely widening in Q2 2024. Mainland China’s sustained demand for Mexican ores (HS 26) will support exports, but volatility in raw material prices could lead to further fluctuations. Meanwhile, Mexico’s reliance on Chinese electrical machinery (HS 85) will persist, driven by industrial and consumer demand. Without structural shifts, the resource-for-tech exchange model will continue, reinforcing Mexico’s position as a net importer.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Export Markets: Mexican exporters of ores should target alternative buyers in Southeast Asia or India to reduce overreliance on Mainland China and mitigate price volatility risks.
• Boost Local Tech Capacity: Mexican manufacturers should invest in domestic production of mid-tier electrical components to reduce dependency on Chinese imports, particularly in critical supply chains.
• Lock in Long-Term Contracts: Traders dealing in raw materials should secure fixed-price agreements with Chinese buyers to stabilize revenue streams amid fluctuating commodity markets.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Mexico - Mainland China trade perform in 2024 Q1?

Mexico's exports to Mainland China totaled $2.01B in Q1 2024, with mixed YoY growth, while imports from Mainland China surged to $30.02B, showing strong YoY growth across all months.

What are the top exports from Mexico to Mainland China?

The top export from Mexico to Mainland China is HS 26 (Ores, slag, and ash), accounting for 49.59% of total exports, reflecting a heavy reliance on raw materials.

What does Mexico import from Mainland China?

Mexico's top import from Mainland China is HS 85 (Electrical machinery and equipment), making up 35.11% of total imports, highlighting a dependency on high-tech goods.

What is the trade balance between Mexico and Mainland China?

Mexico recorded a trade deficit of $28.01B with Mainland China in Q1 2024, driven by significantly higher imports ($30.02B) compared to exports ($2.01B).