Mexico - Mainland China Trade 2025 Q1: Heavy Deficit Persists

Key Market Takeaways: Mexico - Mainland China Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Mexico and Mainland China shows mixed growth with persistent volatility in Q1 2025.

• $32.4B Total Trade, Heavy Deficit: Mexico’s imports from Mainland China ($30.35B) dwarf exports ($2.07B), creating a $28.28B deficit—no rebalancing in sight.
• Resource-for-Tech Exchange: Mexico - Mainland China trade statistics reveal a lopsided structure: 52% of Mexico’s exports are raw ores (HS 26), while 33% of imports are high-tech machinery (HS 85).
• Asymmetric Dependency: Mainland China holds the value-add advantage, supplying critical manufacturing inputs, while Mexico remains a commodity supplier.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Mexico-Mainland China Trade Trend in Q1 2025

Mexico Export Performance: Shipments to Mainland China

• Total Volume: $2.07B in Q1 2025.
• Growth Trend & Context: Mixed YoY performance—January saw a 15.45% surge, but February dropped 7.61%, with March rebounding slightly (+2.5%). No news to contextualize shifts.
• Key Volatility: February’s -15.31% MoM decline was the sharpest, followed by a 24.4% recovery in March.

Mexico Import Performance: Sourcing from Mainland China

• Total Volume: $30.35B in Q1 2025.
• Growth Trend & Context: YoY growth turned negative by March (-6.43%), after a weak February (+0.78%) and strong January (+9.32%). No news to explain the downturn.
• Key Volatility: February’s -8.57% MoM drop was the steepest, with March showing a milder -1.45% slide.

Mexico - Mainland China Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade deficit of $28.28B (Imports $30.35B vs. Exports $2.07B).
• Relationship Status: Mexico remains heavily import-dependent on Mainland China, with imports dwarfing exports by a factor of 14.7x. No signs of rebalancing in Q1.

Mexico Import Trend from Mainland China 2025 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Mexico Export Trend to Mainland China 2025 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Mexico Mainland China Trade Records

Mexico-Mainland China Top Trading Products in Q1 2025

Mexico Export Profile: What Does Mexico Sell to Mainland China

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS 26 (Ores, slag, and ash), accounting for 52.10% of total exports to Mainland China.
• Demand Driver: Mainland China uses these raw materials for industrial processing, likely in steel production or other manufacturing sectors.
• Concentration: Trade is highly concentrated, with HS 26 dominating over half of Mexico's exports to Mainland China.

Mexico Import Profile: What Does Mexico Buy from Mainland China

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS 85 (Electrical machinery and equipment), making up 32.55% of total imports from Mainland China.
• Dependency Nature: Critical technology dependency, as these imports are essential for Mexico's electronics and manufacturing sectors.

Mexico - Mainland China Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Mexico supplies raw materials (ores) while Mainland China provides high-tech machinery and equipment.
• Value Chain Position: Mainland China holds the higher value-add position, exporting advanced manufactured goods, while Mexico's exports are primarily low-value raw materials.

Import Analysis by Product: Mainland China to Mexico (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Mexico to Mainland China (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Mexico-Mainland China Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast for Mexico - Mainland China Trade

Mexico’s trade deficit with Mainland China is likely to persist in Q2 2025, driven by continued reliance on high-tech imports and volatile raw material exports. The rebound in March shipments suggests potential stabilization in ore exports, but structural imbalances—where Mexico supplies low-value commodities and imports advanced machinery—will keep the deficit wide. Without policy shifts or new trade agreements, Mainland China’s dominance in critical supply chains will reinforce this asymmetry. Traders should brace for further volatility, particularly in raw material prices, as global demand fluctuations impact Mexico’s key export (HS 26).

Strategic Moves for Mexican Businesses

• Diversify Export Markets: Reduce overreliance on Mainland China for ore sales by targeting emerging Asian and European buyers, mitigating demand shocks.
• Secure Long-term Tech Contracts: Lock in stable pricing for critical electrical machinery (HS 85) imports to hedge against supply chain disruptions and cost spikes.
• Invest in Value-Added Processing: Upgrade Mexico’s ore refining capabilities to export higher-margin semi-processed goods, shifting away from low-value raw material dependence.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Mexico - Mainland China trade perform in 2025 Q1?

Mexico's exports to Mainland China totaled $2.07B in Q1 2025, with mixed YoY growth, while imports from Mainland China reached $30.35B, showing a YoY decline by March.

What are the top exports from Mexico to Mainland China?

HS 26 (Ores, slag, and ash) dominated Mexico's exports to Mainland China, accounting for 52.10% of total shipments.

What does Mexico import from Mainland China?

HS 85 (Electrical machinery and equipment) was the top import, making up 32.55% of Mexico's total imports from Mainland China.

What is the trade balance between Mexico and Mainland China?

Mexico recorded a trade deficit of $28.28B with Mainland China in Q1 2025, with imports exceeding exports by 14.7x.