Mexico - Guatemala Trade 2024 Q4: Surplus & Shifts

Key Market Takeaways: Mexico - Guatemala Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Mexico and Guatemala shows volatility with a dominant Mexican surplus in Q4 2024.

• Economic Pulse: Mexico holds a $524.89M trade surplus, exporting $707.05M (down YoY in Nov/Dec) while importing $182.16M (sharp -17.79% drop in December).
• Exchange Structure: Mexico - Guatemala trade statistics reveal resource-for-industrial complementarity—Mexico supplies machinery (HS 85) and processed foods (HS 21) while importing agricultural goods (HS 17) and rubber (HS 40).
• Strategic Interdependence: Mexico’s higher-value exports (tech, processed goods) contrast with Guatemala’s raw material focus, creating asymmetric but mutually beneficial trade.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Mexico-Guatemala Trade Trend in Q4 2024

Mexico Export Performance: Shipments to Guatemala

• Total Volume: $707.05M in Q4 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth turned negative in November (-5.31%) and December (-3.9%), offsetting October’s strong 20.94% expansion.
  • No specific trade news to explain the Q4 volatility.
• Key Volatility: October saw the highest MoM growth (+11.42%), while November recorded the sharpest MoM drop (-9.23%).

Mexico Import Performance: Sourcing from Guatemala

• Total Volume: $182.16M in Q4 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY imports plummeted by -17.79% in December, capping a quarter of declining demand after a +24.17% surge in October.
• Key Volatility: December posted the lowest monthly value ($54.63M) and steepest MoM decline (-11.62%).

Mexico - Guatemala Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Mexico holds a trade surplus of $524.89M (Exports: $707.05M vs. Imports: $182.16M).
• Relationship Status: Mexico dominates as a net exporter, with exports nearly 4x the value of imports from Guatemala.

Mexico Import Trend from Guatemala 2024 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Mexico Export Trend to Guatemala 2024 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Mexico Guatemala Trade Records

Mexico-Guatemala Top Trading Products in Q4 2024

Mexico Export Profile: What Does Mexico Sell to Guatemala

• Top Commodity: HS Code 99 (20.04% share, $141.67M).
• Demand Driver: Mixed profile—HS Code 85 (electronics) and 84 (machinery) suggest industrial inputs, while HS Codes 21 (food prep) and 19 (processed foods) indicate consumer market demand.
• Concentration: No single category dominates; top export (HS 99) holds 20% share, reflecting diversified exports.

Mexico Import Profile: What Does Mexico Buy from Guatemala

• Top Commodity: HS Code 99 (34.02% share, $61.97M).
• Dependency Nature: Agricultural focus (HS 17, 15, 12) points to food security reliance, while HS 40 (rubber) and 48 (paper) suggest industrial material inputs.

Mexico - Guatemala Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Industrial Complementarity—Mexico supplies machinery/consumer goods (HS 85, 84) while importing agricultural/raw materials (HS 17, 15).
• Value Chain Position: Mexico holds higher value-add, exporting processed goods (HS 21, 19) and tech (HS 85) versus Guatemala’s raw materials (HS 15, 12).

Import Analysis by Product: Guatemala to Mexico (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Mexico to Guatemala (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Mexico-Guatemala Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast for Mexico-Guatemala Trade

Mexico’s trade surplus with Guatemala is expected to stabilize in Q1 2025, though volatility in export demand may persist. The mixed performance in Q4—strong October growth followed by sharp declines—suggests uneven industrial and consumer demand in Guatemala. However, the complementary trade structure (Mexico’s machinery/exports vs. Guatemala’s agricultural inputs) provides a resilient foundation. Traders should anticipate moderate recovery in Guatemala’s import demand, particularly for processed foods (HS 21, 19) and industrial inputs (HS 85, 84), while monitoring raw material supply chains (HS 17, 15) for disruptions.

Strategic Moves for Traders

• Lock in Agri-Supply Contracts: Guatemala’s dominance in agricultural exports (HS 17, 15) makes long-term agreements critical for Mexican food processors to hedge against price swings and ensure stable input costs.
• Diversify Export Markets for Electronics (HS 85): Mitigate reliance on Guatemalan demand by targeting other Central American markets, where Mexico’s tech exports hold competitive pricing advantages.
• Optimize Cross-Border Logistics: Reduce lead times for industrial goods (HS 84, 40) by negotiating preferential freight rates or exploring nearshoring hubs in southern Mexico to serve Guatemalan buyers faster.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Mexico - Guatemala trade perform in 2024 Q4?

Mexico's exports to Guatemala totaled $707.05M, with mixed YoY growth (-5.31% in November, +20.94% in October), while imports from Guatemala fell to $182.16M, declining sharply in December (-17.79% YoY).

What are the top exports from Mexico to Guatemala?

Mexico's top exports include industrial inputs (HS 85: electronics, HS 84: machinery) and consumer goods (HS 21: food prep, HS 19: processed foods), with HS Code 99 leading at 20.04% share ($141.67M).

What does Mexico import from Guatemala?

Mexico primarily imports agricultural products (HS 17, 15, 12) and industrial materials (HS 40: rubber, HS 48: paper), with HS Code 99 as the top category (34.02% share, $61.97M).

What is the trade balance between Mexico and Guatemala?

Mexico holds a trade surplus of $524.89M (exports: $707.05M vs. imports: $182.16M), with exports nearly 4x the value of imports from Guatemala.