Mexico - Guatemala Trade 2025 Q1: Surplus Widens

Key Market Takeaways: Mexico - Guatemala Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Mexico and Guatemala reflects a widening surplus driven by resilient export recovery in Q1 2025.

• Mexico dominates with a $524M surplus, exporting $678M (up 9.1% YoY in March) while imports from Guatemala fell 28.5% YoY in January before moderating.
• Mexico - Guatemala trade statistics show a resource-for-tech exchange: Mexico supplies machinery (HS 85) and consumer goods, while importing agricultural inputs (HS 15) and raw materials.
• Complementary economies with Mexico holding higher value-add, though Guatemala’s role as a supplier of critical commodities underscores mutual dependence.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Mexico-Guatemala Trade Trend in Q1 2025

Mexico Export Performance: Shipments to Guatemala

• Total Volume: $678.30M in Q1 2025.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth turned positive in March (+9.07%), offsetting earlier declines (-2.55% in Jan, -4.12% in Feb).
• Key Volatility: March saw a sharp MoM surge (+14.66%), the highest in the quarter.

Mexico Import Performance: Sourcing from Guatemala

• Total Volume: $154.27M in Q1 2025.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Persistent YoY declines (-28.51% in Jan, -18.63% in Feb, -9.69% in Mar), though contraction moderated sequentially.
• Key Volatility: February posted the strongest MoM rebound (+27.04%) after a steep January drop (-21.89%).

Mexico - Guatemala Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Mexico holds a trade surplus of $524.03M (Exports $678.30M vs. Imports $154.27M).
• Relationship Status: Dominant net exporter role, with exports exceeding imports by 4.4x. The surplus widened due to resilient export recovery and subdued import demand.

Mexico Import Trend from Guatemala 2025 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Mexico Export Trend to Guatemala 2025 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Mexico Guatemala Trade Records

Mexico-Guatemala Top Trading Products in Q1 2025

Mexico Export Profile: What Does Mexico Sell to Guatemala

• Top Commodity: HS Code 99 (Miscellaneous) dominates at 22.98% of exports.
• Demand Driver: The mix includes consumer goods (HS 21, 19, 22) and industrial inputs (HS 85, 84, 39), suggesting Guatemala relies on Mexico for both market-ready products and manufacturing components.
• Concentration: No single category exceeds 50%, but the top 3 exports (HS 99, 85, 21) account for 40.86%, indicating moderate diversification.

Mexico Import Profile: What Does Mexico Buy from Guatemala

• Top Commodity: HS Code 99 (Miscellaneous) leads at 35.29% of imports.
• Dependency Nature: Heavy reliance on agricultural and raw materials (HS 15, 12, 17) points to food security and industrial feedstock needs.

Mexico - Guatemala Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Mexico supplies manufactured goods and tech (HS 85, 84) while importing raw materials (HS 15, 40) from Guatemala.
• Value Chain Position: Mexico holds higher value-add, exporting processed goods (e.g., machinery, chemicals) versus Guatemala’s primary commodities (oils, rubber, paper).

Import Analysis by Product: Guatemala to Mexico (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Mexico to Guatemala (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Mexico-Guatemala Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Mexico’s trade surplus with Guatemala is expected to widen further in Q2 2025, driven by sustained demand for Mexican manufactured goods and industrial inputs. The rebound in exports, particularly the March surge (+14.66% MoM), signals resilience in Guatemala’s consumer and industrial sectors, which rely on Mexico for tech and processed goods. However, Guatemala’s import contraction (-9.69% YoY in March) suggests weak domestic demand, likely prolonging Mexico’s dominance in the trade relationship. Traders should anticipate price volatility in raw materials (HS 15, 12) as Guatemala’s agricultural exports face headwinds.

Strategic Moves

• Lock in Tech Export Contracts: With Guatemala dependent on Mexican machinery (HS 84, 85) and consumer goods, exporters should secure long-term agreements to stabilize revenue amid fluctuating demand.
• Diversify Agricultural Imports: Mexico’s reliance on Guatemalan raw materials (HS 15, 17) poses supply chain risks. Buyers must identify alternative suppliers in Central America to mitigate shortages.
• Capitalize on March Momentum: The export spike in March (+9.07% YoY) indicates latent demand. Exporters should prioritize marketing high-growth categories (HS 21, 22) to sustain the recovery.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Mexico - Guatemala trade perform in 2025 Q1?

Mexico's exports to Guatemala totaled $678.30M, with a YoY recovery in March (+9.07%). Imports from Guatemala fell to $154.27M, though declines moderated over the quarter.

What are the top exports from Mexico to Guatemala?

Miscellaneous goods (HS 99) led at 22.98%, followed by electrical machinery (HS 85) and consumer goods (HS 21), reflecting a mix of finished products and industrial inputs.

What does Mexico import from Guatemala?

Miscellaneous goods (HS 99) dominated at 35.29%, with agricultural and raw materials (HS 15, 12, 17) highlighting Guatemala’s role as a supplier of primary commodities.

What is the trade balance between Mexico and Guatemala?

Mexico holds a $524.03M surplus, with exports 4.4x higher than imports. The gap widened due to resilient export growth and weaker import demand.