Mexico - Guatemala Trade 2024 Q3: Strong Surplus, Mixed Growth

Key Market Takeaways: Mexico - Guatemala Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Mexico and Guatemala remains strong, with Mexico maintaining a dominant net exporter role in Q3 2024.

• Economic Pulse: Mexico holds a $524.16M trade surplus (exports: $728.44M, imports: $204.28M), though exports faced a YoY decline (-3.6% to -9.19%) while imports showed mixed growth.
• Exchange Structure: Mexico - Guatemala trade statistics reveal resource-for-tech complementarity: Mexico exports consumer goods (HS 21, 19, 96) and imports agricultural/raw materials (HS 17, 15, 40), highlighting diversified demand.
• Strategic Interdependence: The partnership reflects asymmetric value-add, with Mexico supplying processed goods and Guatemala providing primary inputs, reinforcing supply chain ties.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Mexico-Guatemala Trade Trend in Q3 2024

Mexico Export Performance: Shipments to Guatemala

• Total Volume: $728.44M in Q3 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context: YoY decline persisted across all months (-3.6% in Jul, -1.47% in Aug, -9.19% in Sep). No news to explain the contraction.
• Key Volatility: August saw the highest exports ($260.48M, +8.87% MoM), while September had the sharpest drop (-12.2% MoM).

Mexico Import Performance: Sourcing from Guatemala

• Total Volume: $204.28M in Q3 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context: Mixed YoY performance (+16.81% in Jul, +20.75% in Aug, -0.31% in Sep). No news context provided.
• Key Volatility: August peaked ($77.67M, +18.17% MoM), but September saw the steepest decline (-21.63% MoM).

Mexico - Guatemala Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Mexico holds a trade surplus of $524.16M (Exports $728.44M vs. Imports $204.28M).
• Relationship Status: Strong net exporter role, with exports exceeding imports by over 3.5x.

Mexico Import Trend from Guatemala 2024 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Mexico Export Trend to Guatemala 2024 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Mexico Guatemala Trade Records

Mexico-Guatemala Top Trading Products in Q3 2024

Mexico Export Profile: What Does Mexico Sell to Guatemala

• Top Commodity: HS Code 99 (26.13% share, $190.33M).
• Demand Driver: Consumer goods dominate (e.g., HS 21, 19, 96), indicating Guatemala’s reliance on Mexico for finished products for its domestic market.
• Concentration: No single category dominates; the top export (HS 99) holds 26.13%, reflecting diversified demand.

Mexico Import Profile: What Does Mexico Buy from Guatemala

• Top Commodity: HS Code 99 (32.98% share, $67.37M).
• Dependency Nature: Agricultural and raw materials (e.g., HS 17, 15, 40) suggest Mexico sources primary goods from Guatemala for food security or industrial inputs.

Mexico - Guatemala Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Mexico exports consumer goods (e.g., processed foods, household items) while importing agricultural products and raw materials from Guatemala.
• Value Chain Position: Mexico holds higher value-add, exporting processed goods (HS 85, 84, 39) versus Guatemala’s focus on raw materials (HS 17, 40, 15).

Import Analysis by Product: Guatemala to Mexico (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Mexico to Guatemala (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Mexico-Guatemala Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast for Mexico-Guatemala Trade

The Mexico-Guatemala trade relationship is expected to stabilize in Q4 2024, with Mexico maintaining its strong surplus position. While exports may continue to face mild headwinds due to softening demand, imports from Guatemala are likely to rebound, particularly in agricultural and raw material categories. The complementary nature of trade—Mexico’s consumer goods for Guatemala’s primary products—will sustain long-term growth, but short-term volatility calls for tactical adjustments. Traders should prepare for uneven monthly performance, with August likely remaining the peak export period.

Strategic Moves for Mexican Businesses

1. Diversify Export Markets: Mitigate reliance on Guatemala by expanding into other Central American markets, reducing exposure to seasonal demand swings.
2. Lock in Agricultural Imports: Secure long-term contracts with Guatemalan suppliers for key raw materials (HS 17, 15, 40) to stabilize input costs amid potential price fluctuations.
3. Optimize Logistics for Peak Periods: Align shipping schedules with Guatemala’s August demand surge to capitalize on higher export volumes and avoid bottlenecks.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Mexico - Guatemala trade perform in 2024 Q3?

Mexico's exports to Guatemala declined YoY (-3.6% in Jul, -1.47% in Aug, -9.19% in Sep), totaling $728.44M, while imports from Guatemala were mixed (+16.81% in Jul, +20.75% in Aug, -0.31% in Sep), reaching $204.28M.

What are the top exports from Mexico to Guatemala?

Consumer goods dominate, led by HS Code 99 (26.13% share, $190.33M), with diversified demand across processed foods (HS 21, 19) and household items (HS 96).

What does Mexico import from Guatemala?

Agricultural and raw materials are key, with HS Code 99 (32.98% share, $67.37M) topping imports, followed by industrial inputs like sugar (HS 17) and rubber (HS 40).

What is the trade balance between Mexico and Guatemala?

Mexico holds a trade surplus of $524.16M (exports $728.44M vs. imports $204.28M), maintaining a strong net exporter role with exports exceeding imports by 3.5x.