Mexico - Guatemala Trade 2024 Q2: Surplus & Volatility

Key Market Takeaways: Mexico - Guatemala Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Mexico and Guatemala shows a lopsided surplus in Mexico's favor amid volatile growth in Q2 2024.

• Economic Pulse: Mexico holds a $573.2M trade surplus, exporting $773.27M (down -6% YoY) while importing $200.07M (mixed YoY growth). Volatility spikes in both directions.
• Exchange Structure: Mexico - Guatemala trade statistics reveal a resource-for-tech complementarity—Mexico supplies industrial/consumer goods (machinery, plastics) while importing agricultural/low-value inputs (edible oils, rubber).
• Strategic Interdependence: Mexico dominates as a higher-value exporter, but Guatemala’s June import surge (+15% MoM) hints at shifting demand dynamics.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Mexico-Guatemala Trade Trend in Q2 2024

Mexico Export Performance: Shipments to Guatemala

• Total Volume: $773.27M in Q2 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context: YoY growth turned negative in May (-6.36%) and June (-6.07%), signaling a demand slowdown. No trade policy shifts were reported to explain this.
• Key Volatility: April saw a strong MoM surge (+14.33%), but June recorded a sharp drop (-7.35%).

Mexico Import Performance: Sourcing from Guatemala

• Total Volume: $200.07M in Q2 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context: YoY growth was volatile—April spiked (+36.32%), but May dipped (-0.8%) before recovering slightly in June (+8.11%). No external factors were cited.
• Key Volatility: June imports surged +15.07% MoM, the highest monthly gain in the quarter.

Mexico - Guatemala Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Mexico holds a trade surplus of $573.2M (Exports $773.27M - Imports $200.07M).
• Relationship Status: Mexico dominates as a net exporter, with exports nearly 3.9x the import volume. Trade remains lopsided in Mexico’s favor.

Mexico Import Trend from Guatemala 2024 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Mexico Export Trend to Guatemala 2024 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Mexico Guatemala Trade Records

Mexico-Guatemala Top Trading Products in Q2 2024

Mexico Export Profile: What Does Mexico Sell to Guatemala

• Top Commodity: HS Code 99 (Miscellaneous) dominates with $177.73M, accounting for 22.98% of exports.
• Demand Driver: The mix includes consumer goods (HS 21, 22, 19) and industrial inputs (HS 39, 33, 27), suggesting Guatemala relies on Mexico for both market consumption and processing.
• Concentration: No single category exceeds 50%, but the top 3 codes (HS 99, 85, 39) collectively hold 38.96% share, indicating moderate diversification.

Mexico Import Profile: What Does Mexico Buy from Guatemala

• Top Commodity: HS Code 99 (Miscellaneous) leads with $58.60M, representing 29.29% of imports.
• Dependency Nature: Imports skew toward agricultural and light industrial goods (HS 17, 15, 40), pointing to food security and low-value-added supply chain links.

Mexico - Guatemala Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Mexico supplies Guatemala with higher-value industrial and consumer goods (e.g., machinery, plastics) while importing raw materials (e.g., edible oils, rubber).
• Value Chain Position: Mexico holds the higher value-add position, exporting processed goods (HS 85, 84) and chemicals (HS 33, 39) versus Guatemala’s agricultural and basic manufacturing exports.

Import Analysis by Product: Guatemala to Mexico (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Mexico to Guatemala (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Mexico-Guatemala Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

The Mexico-Guatemala trade relationship is likely to face a period of consolidation in Q3 2024, with Mexico’s export slowdown signaling weakening demand in Guatemala. However, the structural complementarity—Mexico’s industrial exports versus Guatemala’s agricultural and light industrial goods—will sustain trade volumes. The June import surge from Guatemala (+15.07% MoM) suggests potential for rebalancing, but Mexico’s dominant surplus ($573.2M) will persist. Traders should prepare for volatility, particularly in consumer goods (HS 21, 22, 19) and industrial inputs (HS 39, 33, 27), where demand fluctuations are most acute.

Strategic Moves

• Lock in Supplier Contracts: Guatemalan exporters of agricultural goods (HS 17, 15) should secure long-term agreements with Mexican buyers to stabilize revenue amid volatile demand.
• Diversify Export Markets: Mexican firms facing softening demand in Guatemala (e.g., HS 99, 85, 39) must pivot to other Central American markets to offset declines.
• Optimize Logistics for High-Value Imports: Mexican importers of Guatemalan raw materials (HS 40, 17) should streamline cross-border logistics to capitalize on June’s import surge and reduce lead times.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Mexico - Guatemala trade perform in 2024 Q2?

Mexico's exports to Guatemala totaled $773.27M, but YoY growth turned negative in May and June. Imports from Guatemala reached $200.07M, with volatile YoY growth.

What are the top exports from Mexico to Guatemala?

The top exports include Miscellaneous goods (HS 99), machinery (HS 85), and plastics (HS 39), accounting for 38.96% of total exports.

What does Mexico import from Guatemala?

Mexico primarily imports Miscellaneous goods (HS 99), along with agricultural products like edible oils (HS 17) and rubber (HS 40).

What is the trade balance between Mexico and Guatemala?

Mexico holds a trade surplus of $573.2M with Guatemala, with exports nearly 3.9x higher than imports.