Mexico - Guatemala Trade 2024 Q1: Surplus & Volatility

Key Market Takeaways: Mexico - Guatemala Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Mexico and Guatemala remains lopsided in Mexico's favor, with mixed growth and volatility in Q1 2024.

• Mexico dominates with a $482.49M trade surplus, exporting $672.35M to Guatemala while importing $189.86M. Volatility marked both sides, with sharp YoY swings in February.
• Mexico-Guatemala trade statistics reveal intra-industry exchange, with consumer goods (HS 85, 39) flowing south and agricultural inputs (HS 17, 15) moving north. HS Code 99 leads both exports (23.2%) and imports (29.4%).
• Supply chain integration deepens as Mexico adds value through tech/manufactured exports, while Guatemala supplies raw materials—a complementary but unequal dynamic.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Mexico-Guatemala Trade Trend in Q1 2024

Mexico Export Performance: Shipments to Guatemala

• Total Volume: $672.35M in Q1 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context: YoY growth was mixed, with January (-0.62%) and March (-12.15%) showing declines, offset by February's 1.77% increase. No specific trade news explains the volatility.
• Key Volatility: February saw the strongest MoM growth (+5.87%), while March flattened (+0.8%).

Mexico Import Performance: Sourcing from Guatemala

• Total Volume: $189.86M in Q1 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context: YoY surged in February (+32.48%) but slowed sharply in March (+2.28%), suggesting demand fluctuations. No news context provided.
• Key Volatility: February posted the highest MoM jump (+11.61%), while January dropped -10.18%.

Mexico - Guatemala Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Mexico holds a trade surplus of $482.49M (Exports $672.35M > Imports $189.86M).
• Relationship Status: Mexico is a dominant net exporter to Guatemala, with exports 3.5x higher than imports. Trade remains lopsided in Mexico's favor.

Mexico Import Trend from Guatemala 2024 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Mexico Export Trend to Guatemala 2024 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Mexico Guatemala Trade Records

Mexico-Guatemala Top Trading Products in Q1 2024

Mexico Export Profile: What Does Mexico Sell to Guatemala

• Top Commodity: HS Code 99 (23.20% share, $156.02M).
• Demand Driver: Consumer goods dominate (e.g., HS 85, 39, 21), indicating Mexico serves Guatemala's retail and household markets.
• Concentration: No single category dominates; top export (HS 99) holds 23.20%, reflecting diversified sales.

Mexico Import Profile: What Does Mexico Buy from Guatemala

• Top Commodity: HS Code 99 (29.43% share, $55.88M).
• Dependency Nature: Agricultural and light industrial goods (e.g., HS 17, 15, 12) suggest food security and manufacturing input reliance.

Mexico - Guatemala Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Intra-Industry Trade—both sides exchange similar categories (e.g., HS 99, 21, 19), signaling supply chain integration.
• Value Chain Position: Mexico holds higher value-add, exporting tech/consumer goods (HS 85, 84) while importing raw materials (HS 15, 12).

Import Analysis by Product: Guatemala to Mexico (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Mexico to Guatemala (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Mexico-Guatemala Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast for Mexico-Guatemala Trade

Mexico’s trade surplus with Guatemala is expected to hold steady in Q2 2024, though volatility in export demand may persist. The mixed YoY performance in Q1—particularly the sharp March drop in exports—suggests caution, but Guatemala’s reliance on Mexican consumer goods (HS 85, 39, 21) and supply chain integration (HS 99) will likely sustain trade volumes. If Guatemala’s domestic demand rebounds, Mexico’s exports could recover, but traders should prepare for uneven growth. The Mexico-Guatemala trade forecast hinges on stabilizing intra-industry flows and mitigating monthly fluctuations.

Strategic Moves for Traders & Exporters

• Diversify Export Categories Beyond HS 99: With Guatemala’s demand spread across multiple sectors, Mexican exporters should reduce reliance on a single commodity (23.2% share) and push higher-value tech (HS 85, 84) to solidify dominance.
• Lock In Agricultural Imports with Long-Term Contracts: Guatemala’s strength in agricultural goods (HS 17, 15, 12) makes it a critical supplier for Mexico’s food and manufacturing sectors. Secure pricing now to hedge against future volatility.
• Optimize Cross-Border Logistics for JIT Efficiency: The intra-industry trade model (e.g., HS 21, 19) requires lean supply chains. Invest in customs clearance speed and regional warehousing to capitalize on integrated production networks.

Next Steps: Monitor Guatemala’s March-April import data for signs of demand recovery, and adjust inventory strategies accordingly.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Mexico - Guatemala trade perform in 2024 Q1?

Mexico exported $672.35M to Guatemala and imported $189.86M, with mixed YoY growth (-0.62% in January, +1.77% in February, -12.15% in March).

What are the top exports from Mexico to Guatemala?

HS Code 99 (23.20% share, $156.02M) led Mexico's exports, alongside consumer goods like HS 85, 39, and 21, reflecting diversified sales.

What does Mexico import from Guatemala?

HS Code 99 (29.43% share, $55.88M) topped imports, with agricultural and light industrial goods (HS 17, 15, 12) highlighting food security and manufacturing reliance.

What is the trade balance between Mexico and Guatemala?

Mexico held a trade surplus of $482.49M, with exports 3.5x higher than imports, maintaining a lopsided trade relationship in its favor.