Mexico - Guatemala Trade 2024 Whole Year: $2.1B Surplus

Key Market Takeaways: Mexico - Guatemala Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Mexico and Guatemala shows mixed growth with high volatility in 2024.

• Mexico dominates with a $2.1B surplus, exporting $2.88B (volatile YoY swings) while importing $776.36M (erratic demand).
• Mexico - Guatemala trade statistics reveal a resource-for-resource exchange: Mexico supplies industrial/consumer goods (HS 85, 39) and imports agricultural inputs (HS 17, 15).
• Complementary economies: Mexico’s higher-value exports highlight Guatemala’s reliance on Mexican processed goods, while Mexico depends on Guatemalan raw materials.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Mexico-Guatemala Trade Trend in Whole Year 2024

Mexico Export Performance: Shipments to Guatemala

• Total Volume: $2.88B in 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context: Mixed YoY performance, with sharp declines in March (-12.15%) and September (-9.19%) offset by strong rebounds in April (+19.48%) and October (+20.94%). No specific news to explain volatility.
• Key Volatility: April saw the highest MoM surge (+14.33%), while September posted the steepest drop (-12.2%).

Mexico Import Performance: Sourcing from Guatemala

• Total Volume: $776.36M in 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context: YoY swings ranged from +36.32% (April) to -17.79% (December), reflecting erratic demand or supply adjustments. No news context provided.
• Key Volatility: August recorded the highest monthly value ($77.67M, +18.17% MoM), while September collapsed (-21.63% MoM).

Mexico - Guatemala Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Mexico holds a trade surplus of $2.1B ($2.88B exports vs. $776.36M imports).
• Relationship Status: Dominant net exporter, with exports nearly 3.7x imports—indicating strong reliance on Mexican goods by Guatemala.

Mexico Import Trend from Guatemala 2024 Whole Year (Source: yTrade)**

Mexico Export Trend to Guatemala 2024 Whole Year (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Mexico Guatemala Trade Records

Mexico-Guatemala Top Trading Products in Whole Year 2024

Mexico Export Profile: What Does Mexico Sell to Guatemala

• Top Commodity: HS Code 99 (Unspecified goods) dominates with $665.75M, accounting for 23.11% of exports.
• Demand Driver: The mix includes industrial inputs (HS 39, 33) and consumer goods (HS 21, 19), suggesting Guatemala uses these for both processing and direct consumption.
• Concentration: No single category exceeds 50%, but the top 3 codes (HS 99, 85, 39) collectively make up 39.52% of exports.

Mexico Import Profile: What Does Mexico Buy from Guatemala

• Top Commodity: HS Code 99 (Unspecified goods) leads with $243.81M, representing 31.40% of imports.
• Dependency Nature: Agricultural products (HS 17, 15) and raw materials (HS 40, 48) indicate Mexico relies on Guatemala for food security and industrial inputs.

Mexico - Guatemala Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Resource Complementarity. Mexico exports industrial and consumer goods while importing agricultural and raw materials, reflecting a classic resource exchange.
• Value Chain Position: Mexico holds a higher value-add position, exporting processed goods (HS 85, 84) versus Guatemala’s raw material-heavy exports (HS 17, 15).

Import Analysis by Product: Guatemala to Mexico (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Mexico to Guatemala (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Mexico-Guatemala Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

The Mexico-Guatemala trade relationship is poised for steady growth in 2025, driven by Mexico’s strong export surplus and Guatemala’s reliance on Mexican industrial and consumer goods. However, the erratic monthly swings in trade volumes—particularly the sharp declines in September—suggest potential supply chain disruptions or demand volatility that traders must monitor. Given the complementary nature of the exchange (Mexican processed goods for Guatemalan agricultural inputs), the $2.1B surplus is likely to persist, but exporters should prepare for seasonal fluctuations. The lack of news context for the volatility underscores the need for proactive risk management.

Strategic Moves

• Lock in Long-Term Contracts for Key Commodities: With HS Code 99 (unspecified goods) dominating both exports and imports, Mexican exporters should secure multi-year agreements with Guatemalan buyers to stabilize revenue streams amid unpredictable monthly swings.
• Diversify Agricultural Imports from Guatemala: Mexico’s reliance on Guatemalan agricultural products (HS 17, 15) exposes it to supply shocks. Importers should explore alternative suppliers in Central America to mitigate disruption risks.
• Optimize Logistics for High-Volatility Months: The steep drops in March and September demand preemptive inventory adjustments. Exporters should align shipping schedules with Guatemala’s demand cycles, using April and October’s rebound trends as benchmarks.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Mexico - Guatemala trade perform in 2024 Whole Year?

Mexico exported $2.88B to Guatemala and imported $776.36M, with mixed YoY growth trends including sharp declines and rebounds.

What are the top exports from Mexico to Guatemala?

HS Code 99 (Unspecified goods) dominated at $665.75M, followed by industrial inputs (HS 39, 33) and consumer goods (HS 21, 19).

What does Mexico import from Guatemala?

HS Code 99 (Unspecified goods) led imports at $243.81M, with agricultural products (HS 17, 15) and raw materials (HS 40, 48) also significant.

What is the trade balance between Mexico and Guatemala?

Mexico holds a trade surplus of $2.1B, with exports nearly 3.7x imports, reflecting strong reliance on Mexican goods by Guatemala.