Mexico - Guatemala Trade 2023 Q4: Surplus & Resource-Tech Exchange

Key Market Takeaways: Mexico - Guatemala Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Mexico and Guatemala shows growth with notable volatility in Q4 2023.

• Economic Pulse: Mexico holds a $502.01M surplus, exporting $684.88M to Guatemala while importing $182.87M, reflecting a nearly 3.7x export dominance.
• Exchange Structure: Mexico - Guatemala trade statistics reveal a resource-for-tech complementarity—Mexico supplies industrial machinery (HS 85, 84) while importing agricultural goods (HS 15, 17) and rubber (HS 40).
• Strategic Interdependence: The partnership is highly complementary, with Mexico occupying a higher value-add position in the supply chain.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Mexico-Guatemala Trade Trend in Q4 2023

Mexico Export Performance: Shipments to Guatemala

• Total Volume: $684.88M in Q4 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY swings: Sharp decline in Oct (-15.84%) and Dec (-15.68%), offset by Nov’s 13.63% surge.
• Key Volatility: Nov’s 15.94% MoM spike was the quarter’s high, followed by a 5.87% drop in Dec.

Mexico Import Performance: Sourcing from Guatemala

• Total Volume: $182.87M in Q4 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY mixed: Oct (-17.83%) and Dec (+12.56%) bookended the quarter, with Nov up 3.41%.
• Key Volatility: Nov’s 19.99% MoM jump was the steepest rise, while Oct saw a 13.34% contraction.

Mexico - Guatemala Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: $502.01M surplus for Mexico (Exports $684.88M > Imports $182.87M).
• Relationship Status: Mexico dominates as a net exporter, with exports nearly 3.7x imports. Volatility in both directions suggests uneven demand or supply chain adjustments.

Mexico Import Trend from Guatemala 2023 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Mexico Export Trend to Guatemala 2023 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Mexico Guatemala Trade Records

Mexico-Guatemala Top Trading Products in Q4 2023

Mexico Export Profile: What Does Mexico Sell to Guatemala

• Top Commodity: HS Code 99 dominates exports, accounting for 35.59% of total value (243.78M).
• Demand Driver: The mix of HS Codes 85 (electrical machinery, 8.97%) and 84 (industrial machinery, 4.15%) suggests Guatemala uses Mexican exports for industrial and consumer markets.
• Concentration: HS Code 99 holds a significant share (35.59%), but the export profile is diversified across multiple categories, avoiding over-reliance on a single commodity.

Mexico Import Profile: What Does Mexico Buy from Guatemala

• Top Commodity: HS Code 99 leads imports with a 43.15% share (78.90M).
• Dependency Nature: The presence of HS Codes 15 (fats/oils, 17.65%) and 17 (sugars, 9.24%) indicates a food security dependency, while HS Code 40 (rubber, 8.95%) points to industrial material needs.

Mexico - Guatemala Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Mexico exports machinery and industrial goods (HS 85, 84) while importing agricultural and raw materials (HS 15, 17, 40).
• Value Chain Position: Mexico holds a higher value-add position, exporting processed/industrial goods, whereas Guatemala supplies primary commodities. The bilateral trade reflects a classic supplier-consumer dynamic.

Import Analysis by Product: Guatemala to Mexico (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Mexico to Guatemala (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Mexico-Guatemala Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Mexico’s trade surplus with Guatemala is expected to hold steady in Q1 2024, supported by persistent demand for industrial machinery (HS 84, 85) and Guatemala’s reliance on Mexican processed goods. However, volatility in month-to-month flows—particularly in agricultural imports (HS 15, 17)—suggests potential supply chain disruptions or price sensitivity. The resource-for-tech complementarity will likely deepen, but exporters should brace for uneven demand spikes, especially if Guatemala diversifies sourcing.

Strategic Moves

• Lock in Agri-Supply Contracts: Guatemalan fats/oils (HS 15) and sugars (HS 17) are critical for Mexico’s food security. Importers should secure multi-quarter contracts to mitigate price swings.
• Push High-Value Machinery Exports: Capitalize on Guatemala’s industrial demand by prioritizing electrical (HS 85) and industrial machinery (HS 84) with bundled service agreements to strengthen buyer loyalty.
• Diversify Beyond HS 99: While HS 99 dominates both flows, overreliance risks exposure to policy shifts. Traders should expand into secondary categories like rubber (HS 40) or tech components to balance portfolios.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Mexico - Guatemala trade perform in 2023 Q4?

Mexico exported $684.88M and imported $182.87M, with mixed YoY growth: sharp declines in October and December but a surge in November.

What are the top exports from Mexico to Guatemala?

HS Code 99 dominated exports (35.59%), followed by electrical machinery (HS 85, 8.97%) and industrial machinery (HS 84, 4.15%).

What does Mexico import from Guatemala?

HS Code 99 led imports (43.15%), with fats/oils (HS 15, 17.65%), sugars (HS 17, 9.24%), and rubber (HS 40, 8.95%) as key commodities.

What is the trade balance between Mexico and Guatemala?

Mexico had a $502.01M surplus, with exports nearly 3.7x imports, reflecting a net exporter dominance. Volatility suggests uneven demand or supply chain adjustments.