Mexico - Guatemala Trade 2023 Q3: $583M Surplus

Key Market Takeaways: Mexico - Guatemala Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Mexico and Guatemala reflects Mexico's dominant net exporter position with mixed quarterly growth in 2023 Q3.

• Economic Pulse: Mexico holds a $582.76M trade surplus (exports $764.42M, imports $181.66M), though monthly volatility shows uneven YoY performance.
• Exchange Structure: Mexico - Guatemala trade statistics reveal a resource-for-industrial input swap—Mexico supplies machinery, plastics, and fuels, while Guatemala exports agricultural goods and raw materials.
• Strategic Interdependence: Complementary economies with Mexico leveraging higher-value exports, though unclassified HS Code 99 dominance suggests data granularity gaps.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Mexico-Guatemala Trade Trend in Q3 2023

Mexico Export Performance: Shipments to Guatemala

• Total Volume: $764.42M in Q3 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth was mixed: +8.32% in July, -2.4% in August, and +3.3% in September.
  • No specific trade news to explain fluctuations.
• Key Volatility: August saw the highest export value ($264.38M, +6.52% MoM), while September dropped 4.74% MoM.

Mexico Import Performance: Sourcing from Guatemala

• Total Volume: $181.66M in Q3 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY trends varied: -10.46% in July, +13.22% in August, and +2.58% in September.
• Key Volatility: August imports surged 14.31% MoM, but July saw a sharp 14.46% MoM decline.

Mexico - Guatemala Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Mexico holds a trade surplus of $582.76M (Exports $764.42M vs. Imports $181.66M).
• Relationship Status: Mexico is a dominant net exporter to Guatemala, with exports exceeding imports by over 4x.

Mexico Import Trend from Guatemala 2023 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Mexico Export Trend to Guatemala 2023 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Mexico Guatemala Trade Records

Mexico-Guatemala Top Trading Products in Q3 2023

Mexico Export Profile: What Does Mexico Sell to Guatemala

• Top Commodity: HS Code 99 (34.50% share), likely representing miscellaneous goods or unclassified items.
• Demand Driver: The mix includes machinery (HS 85, 84), plastics (HS 39), and fuels (HS 27), suggesting Guatemala sources industrial inputs and consumer goods from Mexico.
• Concentration: No single category dominates; the top export (HS 99) holds 34.50%, indicating moderate diversification.

Mexico Import Profile: What Does Mexico Buy from Guatemala

• Top Commodity: HS Code 99 (48.82% share), also miscellaneous/unclassified, implying potential data granularity issues.
• Dependency Nature: Key imports include edible oils (HS 15), rubber (HS 40), and sugar (HS 17), pointing to agricultural and raw material reliance.

Mexico - Guatemala Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Industrial Input Swap—Mexico supplies machinery and fuels, while Guatemala provides agricultural products and raw materials.
• Value Chain Position: Mexico holds higher value-add, exporting complex goods (machinery, electronics) versus Guatemala’s agricultural and low-processed exports.

Import Analysis by Product: Guatemala to Mexico (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Mexico to Guatemala (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Mexico-Guatemala Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Mexico’s trade surplus with Guatemala is expected to hold steady in Q4 2023, supported by sustained demand for industrial inputs like machinery (HS 84, 85) and plastics (HS 39). However, volatility in monthly export growth—particularly the September dip—suggests traders should prepare for short-term fluctuations, possibly tied to seasonal demand shifts or inventory adjustments. Over the next year, Guatemala’s reliance on Mexican fuels (HS 27) and agricultural imports (HS 15, 17) will likely deepen, reinforcing the resource-for-industrial input swap dynamic.

Strategic Moves

• Lock in key commodity contracts: With Guatemala’s dependence on Mexican industrial goods, exporters should secure long-term agreements for machinery and plastics to stabilize revenue amid monthly volatility.
• Diversify import sources for critical raw materials: Mexico’s reliance on Guatemalan agricultural products (e.g., edible oils, sugar) poses supply chain risks; buyers should explore alternative suppliers in Central America to mitigate price swings.
• Monitor HS Code 99 discrepancies: The high share of unclassified goods (34.50% of exports, 48.82% of imports) signals potential data gaps. Traders must clarify customs declarations to avoid regulatory delays and optimize tariff advantages under existing trade agreements.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Mexico - Guatemala trade perform in 2023 Q3?

Mexico's exports to Guatemala totaled $764.42M, with mixed YoY growth (+8.32% in July, -2.4% in August, +3.3% in September). Imports from Guatemala reached $181.66M, showing varied YoY trends (-10.46% in July, +13.22% in August, +2.58% in September).

What are the top exports from Mexico to Guatemala?

Mexico's top exports to Guatemala include machinery (HS 85, 84), plastics (HS 39), and fuels (HS 27), alongside miscellaneous/unclassified goods (HS 99, 34.50% share).

What does Mexico import from Guatemala?

Mexico primarily imports agricultural and raw materials from Guatemala, such as edible oils (HS 15), rubber (HS 40), and sugar (HS 17), with miscellaneous goods (HS 99) dominating at 48.82% share.

What is the trade balance between Mexico and Guatemala?

Mexico holds a trade surplus of $582.76M with Guatemala in Q3 2023, as exports ($764.42M) exceeded imports ($181.66M) by over 4x.