Mexico - Guatemala Trade 2023 Q2: $587M Surplus

Key Market Takeaways: Mexico - Guatemala Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Mexico and Guatemala shows stable growth with notable volatility in Q2 2023.

• Mexico holds a $587M surplus, exporting $764M (4.3x imports) amid mixed YoY growth—May surges offset April slumps.
• Trade is intra-industry, dominated by HS Code 99 (40% of exports, 41% of imports), signaling supply chain integration in consumer goods or broad categories.
• Mexico’s export leverage is clear with machinery and plastics, while Guatemala’s role remains less specialized, reinforcing Mexico’s economic upper hand.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Mexico-Guatemala Trade Trend in Q2 2023

Mexico Export Performance: Shipments to Guatemala

• Total Volume: $764.36M in Q2 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth was mixed, with May (+12.71%) offsetting April’s decline (-6.46%). June saw near-stagnation (+0.68%).
  • No trade policy updates to explain trends.
• Key Volatility: May’s 28.93% MoM surge was the quarter’s highlight, followed by a 7.64% drop in June.

Mexico Import Performance: Sourcing from Guatemala

• Total Volume: $177.34M in Q2 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY mirrored exports: May (+11.86%) countered April’s slump (-9.27%), with June growth muted (+1.33%).
• Key Volatility: May’s 26.47% MoM jump stood out, while April’s 20.71% drop was the steepest.

Mexico - Guatemala Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: $587.02M surplus for Mexico (Exports $764.36M > Imports $177.34M).
• Relationship Status: Mexico dominates as a net exporter, with exports exceeding imports by 4.3x. Trade remains lopsided but stable.

Mexico Import Trend from Guatemala 2023 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Mexico Export Trend to Guatemala 2023 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Mexico Guatemala Trade Records

Mexico-Guatemala Top Trading Products in Q2 2023

Mexico Export Profile: What Does Mexico Sell to Guatemala

• Top Commodity: HS Code 99 dominates Mexico's exports to Guatemala, accounting for 40.28% of total exports ($307.86M).
• Demand Driver: The high share of HS Code 99 suggests Guatemala relies on Mexico for a broad category of goods, likely consumer products or industrial inputs.
• Concentration: The trade is moderately concentrated, with the top export (HS Code 99) holding a 40% share, followed by diversified secondary categories like machinery (HS 85, 7.35%) and mineral fuels (HS 27, 6.38%).

Mexico Import Profile: What Does Mexico Buy from Guatemala

• Top Commodity: HS Code 99 is also the leading import from Guatemala, making up 41.38% of total imports ($73.38M).
• Dependency Nature: The dominance of HS Code 99 implies Mexico sources a mix of goods from Guatemala, possibly agricultural or light industrial products, reflecting a basic trade dependency rather than high-tech or energy reliance.

Mexico - Guatemala Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: The bilateral trade is Intra-Industry, with both countries exchanging similar categories (HS Code 99 dominates both sides). This suggests supply chain integration, particularly in consumer goods or unspecific trade classifications.
• Value Chain Position: Mexico holds a higher value-add position, evidenced by its exports of machinery (HS 85, 84) and plastics (HS 39), while Guatemala’s exports are less specialized. The trade imbalance ($307.86M exports vs. $73.38M imports) further underscores Mexico’s stronger trade leverage.

Import Analysis by Product: Guatemala to Mexico (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Mexico to Guatemala (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Mexico-Guatemala Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Mexico’s trade surplus with Guatemala is expected to hold steady in Q3 2023, driven by sustained demand for Mexican exports under HS Code 99, likely consumer goods or industrial inputs. However, the muted growth in June signals potential softening, possibly due to seasonal factors or inventory adjustments. The intra-industry nature of trade (HS Code 99 dominance on both sides) suggests supply chain integration will deepen, but volatility in monthly figures calls for caution. Traders should monitor Guatemala’s import appetite for early signals of demand shifts.

Strategic Moves

• Lock in HS Code 99 Contracts: With this category dominating trade, Mexican exporters should secure long-term agreements with Guatemalan buyers to stabilize revenue amid fluctuating monthly volumes.
• Optimize Cross-Border Logistics: Given the supply chain integration, firms must streamline warehousing and transport to capitalize on Just-in-Time (JIT) opportunities, especially for machinery (HS 85) and plastics (HS 39).
• Diversify Export Mix: While HS Code 99 is resilient, Mexican traders should push secondary categories like mineral fuels (HS 27) to reduce overreliance on a single commodity and exploit Guatemala’s broader import needs.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Mexico - Guatemala trade perform in 2023 Q2?

Mexico's exports to Guatemala totaled $764.36M, with mixed YoY growth (May +12.71%, April -6.46%). Imports from Guatemala reached $177.34M, showing similar volatility (May +11.86%, April -9.27%).

What are the top exports from Mexico to Guatemala?

HS Code 99 dominated Mexico's exports (40.28%, $307.86M), followed by machinery (HS 85, 7.35%) and mineral fuels (HS 27, 6.38%), indicating diversified industrial and energy trade.

What does Mexico import from Guatemala?

HS Code 99 was the top import (41.38%, $73.38M), suggesting Guatemala supplies Mexico with agricultural or light industrial goods under this broad category.

What is the trade balance between Mexico and Guatemala?

Mexico held a $587.02M surplus (exports $764.36M > imports $177.34M), maintaining a stable 4.3x trade dominance over Guatemala.