Mexico - Guatemala Trade 2023 Q1: Widening Surplus

Key Market Takeaways: Mexico - Guatemala Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Mexico and Guatemala reflects Mexico's dominant exporter role with a widening surplus in Q1 2023.

• Economic Pulse: Mexico holds a $539M trade surplus, exporting $701M to Guatemala (down 7.96% YoY) while importing $162M (mixed YoY trends). Volatility spikes in March suggest demand shifts.
• Exchange Structure: Intra-industry trade dominates, with both nations heavily exchanging HS 99 (Miscellaneous goods). Mexico supplies consumer/tech products (HS 85, 84) while sourcing raw materials (HS 15, 40) from Guatemala.
• Strategic Interdependence: Asymmetrical but integrated—Mexico’s 4.3x export leverage contrasts with Guatemala’s declining imports, hinting at economic strain or diversification efforts.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Mexico-Guatemala Trade Trend in Q1 2023

Mexico Export Performance: Shipments to Guatemala

• Total Volume: $701.47M in Q1 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context: YoY declines persisted across all months (-7.96% in Feb, -15.98% in Mar), signaling weakening demand or competitive shifts. No news to contextualize.
• Key Volatility: March saw a 16.77% MoM surge, the sharpest quarterly rise, though still down YoY.

Mexico Import Performance: Sourcing from Guatemala

• Total Volume: $162.40M in Q1 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context: Mixed YoY trends (Jan +13.47%, Feb/Mar -11.41%/-22.06%) suggest erratic supply or inventory adjustments. No news to explain volatility.
• Key Volatility: March imports spiked 23.54% MoM but remained 22.06% lower YoY, highlighting inconsistent procurement.

Mexico - Guatemala Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Mexico holds a $539.07M trade surplus ($701.47M exports - $162.40M imports).
• Relationship Status: Dominant exporter role, with exports 4.3x imports. Guatemala’s declining imports (-22.06% YoY in Mar) may reflect reduced dependency or economic constraints.

Mexico Import Trend from Guatemala 2023 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Mexico Export Trend to Guatemala 2023 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Mexico Guatemala Trade Records

Mexico-Guatemala Top Trading Products in Q1 2023

Mexico Export Profile: What Does Mexico Sell to Guatemala

• Top Commodity: HS Code 99 (Miscellaneous) dominates with 38.20% share, valued at $268.00M.
• Demand Driver: Consumer goods (e.g., HS 99, 85, 39) suggest Mexico serves Guatemala’s retail and industrial markets.
• Concentration: Moderate—HS 99 holds 38%, but no single category exceeds 50%.

Mexico Import Profile: What Does Mexico Buy from Guatemala

• Top Commodity: HS Code 99 (Miscellaneous) leads at 44.93% share ($72.97M).
• Dependency Nature: Mixed—HS 15 (animal/veg fats) and HS 40 (rubber) indicate raw material reliance for Mexican industry.

Mexico - Guatemala Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Intra-Industry Trade—both sides trade HS 99 (Miscellaneous) heavily, suggesting overlapping supply chains or re-exports.
• Value Chain Position: Mexico holds higher value-add, exporting tech/consumer goods (HS 85, 84) versus Guatemala’s raw materials (HS 15, 40).

Import Analysis by Product: Guatemala to Mexico (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Mexico to Guatemala (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Mexico-Guatemala Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Mexico’s trade surplus with Guatemala is likely to persist in Q2 2023, but exporters should brace for continued volatility. The YoY declines in Mexican shipments (-7.96% to -22.06%) signal softening demand or competitive pressure, while erratic Guatemalan imports suggest supply chain instability. However, the intra-industry trade in HS Code 99 (Miscellaneous) indicates resilient cross-border supply chains, which could stabilize volumes if logistics are optimized. Traders should monitor Guatemala’s economic conditions closely, as further contraction could deepen the export slump.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Export Mix: Reduce reliance on HS 99 by pushing higher-value tech (HS 85, 84) to offset declining demand for consumer goods.
• Lock In Raw Material Contracts: Secure long-term agreements for Guatemalan HS 15 (fats) and HS 40 (rubber) to hedge against supply volatility and price swings.
• Streamline Cross-Border Logistics: Invest in JIT inventory systems for HS 99 trade to capitalize on March’s 23.54% MoM import spike and mitigate erratic procurement cycles.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Mexico - Guatemala trade perform in 2023 Q1?

Mexico exported $701.47M to Guatemala but saw YoY declines (-7.96% in Feb, -15.98% in Mar), while imports from Guatemala totaled $162.40M with mixed YoY trends.

What are the top exports from Mexico to Guatemala?

Miscellaneous goods (HS Code 99) dominated Mexico’s exports to Guatemala, accounting for 38.20% ($268.00M), alongside consumer and industrial goods like HS 85 and 39.

What does Mexico import from Guatemala?

Miscellaneous goods (HS Code 99) were the top import (44.93%, $72.97M), followed by raw materials like animal/veg fats (HS 15) and rubber (HS 40).

What is the trade balance between Mexico and Guatemala?

Mexico held a $539.07M trade surplus with Guatemala in Q1 2023, as exports were 4.3x higher than imports. The gap widened due to Guatemala’s declining imports (-22.06% YoY in Mar).