Mexico - Guatemala Trade 2023 Whole Year: $2.22B Surplus

Key Market Takeaways: Mexico - Guatemala Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Mexico and Guatemala reflects growth with volatility in 2023, underpinned by Mexico's dominant trade surplus.

• Economic Pulse: Mexico holds a $2.22B trade surplus ($2.92B exports vs. $704.28M imports), with exports exceeding imports by 4.1x. Volatility marked both sides, with sharp monthly swings in trade flows.
• Exchange Structure: Mexico - Guatemala trade statistics reveal resource-for-tech complementarity: Mexico exports machinery (HS 85) and chemicals (HS 39, 33) while importing agricultural goods (HS 15, 17) and rubber (HS 40).
• Strategic Interdependence: Mexico maintains higher value-add dominance, supplying processed goods to Guatemala’s raw material-driven economy, reinforcing asymmetrical but complementary ties.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Mexico-Guatemala Trade Trend in Whole Year 2023

Mexico Export Performance: Shipments to Guatemala

• Total Volume: $2.92B in 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context: YoY fluctuations were mixed, with sharp declines in March (-15.98%) and December (-15.68%) offset by strong rebounds in May (+12.71%) and November (+13.63%). No specific trade news to explain volatility.
• Key Volatility: May saw the highest MoM surge (+28.93%), while October posted the steepest drop (-16.35%).

Mexico Import Performance: Sourcing from Guatemala

• Total Volume: $704.28M in 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context: YoY performance was uneven, with March (-22.06%) and October (-17.83%) as weak spots, countered by August (+13.22%) and December (+12.56%).
• Key Volatility: May recorded the largest MoM jump (+26.47%), while April had the sharpest contraction (-20.71%).

Mexico - Guatemala Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Mexico holds a trade surplus of $2.22B ($2.92B exports vs. $704.28M imports).
• Relationship Status: Dominant net exporter, with exports to Guatemala exceeding imports by a factor of 4.1x. Trade remains highly asymmetrical.

Mexico Import Trend from Guatemala 2023 Whole Year (Source: yTrade)**

Mexico Export Trend to Guatemala 2023 Whole Year (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Mexico Guatemala Trade Records

Mexico-Guatemala Top Trading Products in Whole Year 2023

Mexico Export Profile: What Does Mexico Sell to Guatemala

• Top Commodity: HS Code 99 (Unspecified goods) dominates with 37.16% share.
• Demand Driver: Guatemala likely imports these for industrial processing or consumer market needs, given the mix of intermediate and consumer goods (e.g., HS 85, 39, 33).
• Concentration: Trade is moderately concentrated, with the top export (HS 99) accounting for over a third of total exports.

Mexico Import Profile: What Does Mexico Buy from Guatemala

• Top Commodity: HS Code 99 (Unspecified goods) leads at 44.58% share.
• Dependency Nature: Imports suggest a mix of agricultural (HS 15, 17) and industrial inputs (HS 40, 39), indicating food security and manufacturing dependencies.

Mexico - Guatemala Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Mexico exports machinery (HS 85) and chemicals (HS 39, 33) while importing agricultural goods (HS 15, 17) and rubber (HS 40).
• Value Chain Position: Mexico holds higher value-add, exporting more processed goods (e.g., machinery, chemicals) compared to Guatemala’s raw materials (e.g., oils, sugar).

Import Analysis by Product: Guatemala to Mexico (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Mexico to Guatemala (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Mexico-Guatemala Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast:

Mexico’s trade surplus with Guatemala is expected to widen in 2024, driven by sustained demand for processed goods (HS 85, 39) and Guatemala’s reliance on Mexican industrial inputs. However, volatility in monthly shipments—particularly in agriculture-linked commodities (HS 15, 17)—may persist due to seasonal supply chain disruptions. The Mexico-Guatemala trade forecast hinges on stabilizing cross-border logistics and deepening value chain integration, especially in machinery and chemical exports.

Strategic Moves:

• Lock in Long-Term Contracts for Industrial Inputs: Guatemalan buyers of Mexican machinery (HS 85) and chemicals (HS 39) should secure fixed-price agreements to mitigate cost fluctuations amid rising demand.
• Diversify Agricultural Imports: Mexican importers reliant on Guatemalan foodstuffs (HS 15, 17) must identify alternative suppliers in Central America to reduce exposure to harvest-driven price swings.
• Invest in Nearshoring Logistics: Exporters should prioritize warehousing and transport partnerships in Guatemala’s border regions (e.g., Tecún Umán) to capitalize on shorter lead times for high-growth categories like plastics (HS 39).

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Mexico - Guatemala trade perform in 2023 Whole Year?

Mexico exported $2.92B to Guatemala and imported $704.28M, with mixed YoY growth trends including sharp declines in March and December but rebounds in May and November.

What are the top exports from Mexico to Guatemala?

HS Code 99 (Unspecified goods) dominated Mexico’s exports to Guatemala, accounting for 37.16% of total shipments, followed by machinery (HS 85) and chemicals (HS 39, 33).

What does Mexico import from Guatemala?

HS Code 99 (Unspecified goods) led Mexico’s imports from Guatemala at 44.58%, alongside agricultural goods (HS 15, 17) and industrial inputs like rubber (HS 40).

What is the trade balance between Mexico and Guatemala?

Mexico held a trade surplus of $2.22B in 2023, with exports exceeding imports by 4.1x, reflecting a highly asymmetrical trade relationship.