Indonesia - Thailand Trade 2025 Q2: Resource-for-Tech Dynamic
Key Market Takeaways: Indonesia - Thailand Trade
The bilateral trade relationship between Indonesia and Thailand shows growth with notable volatility in Q2 2025.
- Economic Pulse: Indonesia runs a $430M trade deficit with Thailand ($2.33B imports vs. $1.90B exports), marked by erratic monthly swings but no structural shift.
- Exchange Structure: Indonesia - Thailand trade statistics reveal a resource-for-tech dynamic—Mineral Fuels (25.8% of exports) flow to Thailand, while Vehicles (15.3% of imports) dominate inbound shipments.
- Strategic Interdependence: The partnership hinges on complementary strengths: Indonesia supplies raw materials, Thailand delivers higher-value manufactured goods.
This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.
Indonesia-Thailand Trade Trend in Q2 2025
Indonesia Export Performance: Shipments to Thailand
- Total Volume: $1.90B in Q2 2025.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- YoY growth was mixed, with April showing a 20.82% increase but May and June declining (-13.21% and 0%, respectively).
- Key Volatility: June saw a 12.95% MoM rebound after an 11.5% drop in May.
Indonesia Import Performance: Sourcing from Thailand
- Total Volume: $2.33B in Q2 2025.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- April imports surged 50.45% YoY, but May and June fell (-13.41% and 0% YoY).
- Key Volatility: April’s 22.76% MoM spike was followed by a 20.34% drop in May.
Indonesia - Thailand Trade Balance & Market Dynamics
- Net Position: Trade deficit of $430M (Imports $2.33B > Exports $1.90B).
- Relationship Status: Indonesia remains a net importer from Thailand, with volatile monthly flows but no clear structural shift.
Indonesia Import Trend from Thailand 2025 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr | 880.85M | 22.76% | 50.45% |
| May | 701.72M | -20.34% | -13.41% |
| Jun | 749.46M | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| Total | 2.33B | - | - |
Indonesia Export Trend to Thailand 2025 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr | 660.39M | -3.18% | 20.82% |
| May | 584.44M | -11.5% | -13.21% |
| Jun | 660.11M | 12.95% | 0.0% |
| Total | 1.90B | - | - |
Get Historical Indonesia Thailand Trade Records
Indonesia-Thailand Top Trading Products in Q2 2025
Indonesia Export Profile: What Does Indonesia Sell to Thailand
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is Mineral Fuels (HS 27) at 25.79% of total exports to Thailand.
- Demand Driver: Thailand uses these for industrial processing and energy needs.
- Concentration: No single category dominates (>50% share), but Mineral Fuels hold a significant quarter of exports.
Indonesia Import Profile: What Does Indonesia Buy from Thailand
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is Vehicles (HS 87) at 15.30% of total imports from Thailand.
- Dependency Nature: Reflects industrial and consumer demand for automotive products, indicating a mix of technology and consumer market reliance.
Indonesia - Thailand Trade Relationship Dynamics
- The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Indonesia exports raw materials (Mineral Fuels) and imports higher-value goods (Vehicles, Machinery).
- Value Chain Position: Thailand holds the higher value-add position, supplying finished goods (Vehicles, Machinery) against Indonesia’s commodity exports.
Import Analysis by Product: Thailand to Indonesia (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 87 | 356.75M | 15.30% |
| 84 | 339.72M | 14.57% |
| 17 | 302.19M | 12.96% |
| 39 | 277.32M | 11.89% |
| 85 | 206.21M | 8.84% |
| 71 | 92.83M | 3.98% |
| 40 | 62.83M | 2.69% |
| 29 | 51.39M | 2.20% |
| 72 | 40.26M | 1.73% |
| 38 | 36.14M | 1.55% |
Export Analysis by Product: Indonesia to Thailand (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | 491.22M | 25.79% |
| 87 | 149.30M | 7.84% |
| 72 | 133.09M | 6.99% |
| 74 | 132.29M | 6.94% |
| 85 | 123.10M | 6.46% |
| 84 | 118.34M | 6.21% |
| 08 | 68.68M | 3.61% |
| 71 | 63.45M | 3.33% |
| 38 | 53.09M | 2.79% |
| 29 | 43.05M | 2.26% |
Check Detailed Indonesia-Thailand Trade HS Code Breakdown
Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations
The Forecast
Indonesia’s trade with Thailand in Q2 2025 reflects volatility, with mixed YoY growth and sharp monthly swings. Given Thailand’s structural reliance on Indonesian mineral fuels and Indonesia’s demand for Thai vehicles, the Indonesia - Thailand trade forecast suggests steady but uneven volumes ahead. The persistent deficit signals a need for strategic adjustments, particularly in export diversification and value-added production. Without intervention, Indonesia risks deepening its resource-for-tech dependency, leaving trade flows vulnerable to commodity price shocks.
Strategic Moves
- Diversify Export Mix: Indonesian exporters must reduce reliance on mineral fuels by expanding processed goods (e.g., refined petroleum, agro-industry products) to capture higher margins and stabilize revenue.
- Lock in Supply Chains: Thai automotive importers should secure long-term contracts with Indonesian mineral fuel suppliers to mitigate price volatility and ensure stable input costs.
- Leverage Regional FTAs: Both nations should aggressively utilize ASEAN trade agreements to lower tariffs on high-value goods, such as machinery and electronics, to rebalance the trade deficit.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Indonesia - Thailand trade perform in 2025 Q2?
Indonesia's exports to Thailand totaled $1.90B, with mixed YoY growth, while imports from Thailand reached $2.33B, showing volatility with April surges and May-June declines.
What are the top exports from Indonesia to Thailand?
The top export from Indonesia to Thailand is Mineral Fuels (HS 27), accounting for 25.79% of total exports.
What does Indonesia import from Thailand?
The top import from Thailand to Indonesia is Vehicles (HS 87), making up 15.30% of total imports.
What is the trade balance between Indonesia and Thailand?
Indonesia recorded a trade deficit of $430M with Thailand in Q2 2025, as imports ($2.33B) exceeded exports ($1.90B).
Indonesia - Thailand Trade 2025 Q1: Surplus & Resource-Tech Model
Indonesia's trade surplus with Thailand hit $500M in Q1 2025, fueled by resource-for-tech exchanges. Explore Indonesia Thailand trade trends and top trading products via yTrade data.
Indonesia - Thailand Trade 2025 Q3: Widening Deficit
Indonesia's trade deficit with Thailand hits $179.13M in Q3 2025, driven by Thailand's export surge. Explore Indonesia Thailand trade trends and top trading products via yTrade data.
