Indonesia - Thailand Trade 2025 Q1: Surplus & Resource-Tech Model
Key Market Takeaways: Indonesia - Thailand Trade
The bilateral trade relationship between Indonesia and Thailand showed strong export growth but sustained import declines in Q1 2025.
- Economic Pulse: Indonesia posted a $500M trade surplus with Thailand ($2.76B exports vs. $2.26B imports), though import demand contracted YoY across all three months.
- Exchange Structure: Indonesia - Thailand trade statistics reveal a resource-for-tech model: Indonesia supplies precious metals (33% of exports) and fuels, while Thailand dominates machinery and plastics (critical for Indonesian manufacturing).
- Strategic Interdependence: Highly complementary but uneven—Thailand retains higher value-add in industrial goods, while Indonesia leans on raw material exports.
This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.
Indonesia-Thailand Trade Trend in Q1 2025
Indonesia Export Performance: Shipments to Thailand
- Total Volume: $2.76B in Q1 2025.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- YoY growth was strong in January (+56.19%) and February (+95.29%), but moderated sharply in March (+13.26%).
- No specific trade news or policy changes were reported to explain these fluctuations.
- Key Volatility: February saw a 22.23% MoM surge, while March dropped -40.22% MoM, indicating high quarterly volatility.
Indonesia Import Performance: Sourcing from Thailand
- Total Volume: $2.26B in Q1 2025.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- YoY declines persisted throughout the quarter (-24.91% in Jan, -12.27% in Feb, -14.34% in Mar), suggesting sustained demand contraction.
- Key Volatility: February imports spiked 32.82% MoM, but March fell -18.36% MoM, reflecting uneven procurement patterns.
Indonesia - Thailand Trade Balance & Market Dynamics
- Net Position: Indonesia recorded a $500M trade surplus with Thailand (Exports: $2.76B > Imports: $2.26B).
- Relationship Status: Indonesia maintained a net exporter role, though import declines hint at reduced Thai supply dependency or weaker domestic demand.
Indonesia Import Trend from Thailand 2025 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 661.68M | 0.0% | -24.91% |
| Feb | 878.86M | 32.82% | -12.27% |
| Mar | 717.54M | -18.36% | -14.34% |
| Total | 2.26B | - | - |
Indonesia Export Trend to Thailand 2025 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 933.46M | 0.0% | 56.19% |
| Feb | 1.14B | 22.23% | 95.29% |
| Mar | 682.11M | -40.22% | 13.26% |
| Total | 2.76B | - | - |
Get Historical Indonesia Thailand Trade Records
Indonesia-Thailand Top Trading Products in Q1 2025
Indonesia Export Profile: What Does Indonesia Sell to Thailand
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS 71 (Pearls, precious stones, metals) at 33.23% of total exports to Thailand.
- Demand Driver: Thailand likely uses these for industrial processing, particularly in jewelry or electronics manufacturing.
- Concentration: The trade is highly concentrated, with HS 71 and HS 27 (mineral fuels) together accounting for 56.27% of exports.
Indonesia Import Profile: What Does Indonesia Buy from Thailand
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS 84 (Nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery) at 14.84% of total imports from Thailand.
- Dependency Nature: Imports are dominated by machinery (HS 84, HS 87) and plastics (HS 39), indicating critical technology dependency for industrial and manufacturing sectors.
Indonesia - Thailand Trade Relationship Dynamics
- The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Indonesia exports raw materials (precious metals, mineral fuels) and imports high-value machinery and industrial goods.
- Value Chain Position: Thailand holds the higher value-add position, supplying advanced machinery and automotive parts (HS 84, HS 87), while Indonesia primarily provides raw or semi-processed commodities.
Import Analysis by Product: Thailand to Indonesia (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 84 | 335.09M | 14.84% |
| 87 | 332.60M | 14.73% |
| 17 | 330.22M | 14.62% |
| 39 | 268.50M | 11.89% |
| 85 | 199.54M | 8.84% |
| 29 | 54.58M | 2.42% |
| 40 | 49.80M | 2.21% |
| 11 | 45.60M | 2.02% |
| 72 | 39.57M | 1.75% |
| 71 | 36.89M | 1.63% |
Export Analysis by Product: Indonesia to Thailand (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 71 | 915.91M | 33.23% |
| 27 | 635.11M | 23.04% |
| 87 | 124.63M | 4.52% |
| 84 | 122.32M | 4.44% |
| 74 | 99.91M | 3.62% |
| 85 | 92.75M | 3.36% |
| 72 | 84.34M | 3.06% |
| 08 | 74.35M | 2.70% |
| 38 | 47.58M | 1.73% |
| 15 | 39.45M | 1.43% |
Check Detailed Indonesia-Thailand Trade HS Code Breakdown
Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations
Forecast for Indonesia-Thailand Trade
Indonesia’s trade surplus with Thailand is expected to hold steady in Q2 2025, but volatility in exports—particularly in precious metals (HS 71) and mineral fuels (HS 27)—may persist due to fluctuating industrial demand. The sustained decline in imports from Thailand signals weakening domestic demand or a strategic shift away from Thai machinery (HS 84), which could reshape bilateral trade dynamics. If Indonesia’s export growth moderates further, traders should prepare for tighter margins, while importers may benefit from lower Thai machinery prices amid softening demand.
Strategic Moves for Traders & Policymakers
- Lock in Precious Metals Contracts: With HS 71 exports highly concentrated but volatile, Indonesian exporters should secure long-term agreements with Thai buyers to stabilize revenue streams.
- Diversify Machinery Suppliers: Indonesian manufacturers reliant on Thai machinery (HS 84) must explore alternative markets (e.g., China, South Korea) to mitigate supply chain risks from declining imports.
- Monitor Fuel Export Demand Closely: The sharp March drop in mineral fuel shipments (HS 27) suggests potential oversupply or weakening Thai industrial demand—exporters should adjust production and inventory levels proactively.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Indonesia - Thailand trade perform in 2025 Q1?
Indonesia exported $2.76B to Thailand, with strong YoY growth in January and February, while imports from Thailand declined to $2.26B, showing sustained demand contraction.
What are the top exports from Indonesia to Thailand?
The top exports are HS 71 (Pearls, precious stones, metals) and HS 27 (mineral fuels), together accounting for 56.27% of total exports.
What does Indonesia import from Thailand?
The top imports are HS 84 (Nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery), HS 87 (vehicles), and HS 39 (plastics), reflecting Indonesia's dependency on Thai industrial and manufacturing goods.
What is the trade balance between Indonesia and Thailand?
Indonesia recorded a $500M trade surplus with Thailand in Q1 2025, maintaining its net exporter role despite declining imports.
Indonesia - Thailand Trade 2024 Q2: Persistent Deficit
Indonesia's trade deficit with Thailand hits $180M in Q2 2024, driven by mineral fuel exports and vehicle imports. Explore Indonesia Thailand trade trends and top trading products via yTrade data.
Indonesia - Thailand Trade 2025 Q2: Resource-for-Tech Dynamic
Indonesia's trade deficit with Thailand hits $430M in Q2 2025, driven by a resource-for-tech exchange. Explore Indonesia Thailand trade trends and top trading products on yTrade.
