Indonesia - Thailand Trade 2024 Q2: Persistent Deficit

Key Market Takeaways: Indonesia - Thailand Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Indonesia and Thailand shows volatility with a persistent deficit in Q2 2024.

• Economic Pulse: Indonesia recorded a $180M trade deficit with Thailand ($1.40B imports vs. $1.22B exports), reflecting structural reliance on Thai goods despite mixed export growth.
• Exchange Structure: Indonesia - Thailand trade statistics reveal a resource-for-tech dynamic—Indonesia supplies mineral fuels (38.7% of exports) while importing vehicles and machinery from Thailand.
• Strategic Interdependence: The partnership is highly complementary, with Thailand holding the higher value-add position in manufactured goods.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Indonesia-Thailand Trade Trend in Q2 2024

Indonesia Export Performance: Shipments to Thailand

• Total Volume: $1.22B in Q2 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth was mixed: +27.49% in April but -8.03% in May. The volatility suggests uneven demand or pricing shifts.
• Key Volatility: May saw a 23.2% MoM surge after April’s -9.24% dip, indicating potential inventory adjustments or short-term demand spikes.

Indonesia Import Performance: Sourcing from Thailand

• Total Volume: $1.40B in Q2 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY declines persisted: -5.03% in April and -19.36% in May, signaling reduced reliance or weaker domestic demand.
• Key Volatility: May’s 38.41% MoM jump followed April’s -30.1% drop, hinting at delayed shipments or seasonal restocking.

Indonesia - Thailand Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Indonesia ran a $180M trade deficit with Thailand (Imports $1.40B > Exports $1.22B).
• Relationship Status: Persistent deficit reflects structural dependence on Thai imports, though export volatility suggests efforts to rebalance.

Indonesia Import Trend from Thailand 2024 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Indonesia Export Trend to Thailand 2024 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Indonesia Thailand Trade Records

Indonesia-Thailand Top Trading Products in Q2 2024

Indonesia Export Profile: What Does Indonesia Sell to Thailand

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS 27 (Mineral fuels, oils) at 38.69% of total exports to Thailand.
• Demand Driver: Thailand uses these for industrial processing and energy needs, reflecting Indonesia's role as a key supplier of raw materials.
• Concentration: The trade is highly concentrated, with HS 27 alone accounting for nearly 40% of exports.

Indonesia Import Profile: What Does Indonesia Buy from Thailand

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS 87 (Vehicles) at 14.15% of total imports from Thailand.
• Dependency Nature: Imports are mixed, with vehicles (HS 87) and machinery (HS 84) indicating industrial and consumer market reliance, while agricultural products (HS 10, HS 17) suggest food security linkages.

Indonesia - Thailand Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity—Indonesia exports raw materials (mineral fuels) and imports finished goods (vehicles, machinery).
• Value Chain Position: Thailand holds the higher value-add position, exporting complex manufactured goods, while Indonesia supplies bulk commodities.

Import Analysis by Product: Thailand to Indonesia (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Indonesia to Thailand (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Indonesia-Thailand Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast for Indonesia-Thailand Trade

Indonesia’s trade with Thailand is expected to remain volatile in the near term, with exports facing uneven demand while imports show signs of contraction. The persistent deficit highlights structural reliance on Thai finished goods, but Indonesia’s growing mineral fuel exports could stabilize trade volumes if pricing remains favorable. Over the next year, expect Thailand to maintain its upper hand in value-added exports (vehicles, machinery), while Indonesia must push for diversification to reduce dependency. The Indonesia-Thailand trade forecast hinges on Jakarta’s ability to negotiate better terms for raw material exports and attract investment in higher-value industries.

Strategic Moves for Traders & Policymakers

• Lock in Long-Term Fuel Contracts: Indonesian exporters of mineral fuels (HS 27) should secure multi-year agreements with Thai buyers to mitigate price volatility and ensure stable revenue streams.
• Diversify Import Sources: Reduce over-reliance on Thai vehicles (HS 87) by exploring alternative suppliers in ASEAN or renegotiating tariffs under existing trade pacts.
• Boost Export Competitiveness: Prioritize value-added processing of raw materials (e.g., refining crude oil domestically) to shift Indonesia’s position in the supply chain and capture more trade revenue.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Indonesia - Thailand trade perform in 2024 Q2?

Indonesia's exports to Thailand totaled $1.22B, with mixed YoY growth, while imports from Thailand reached $1.40B, showing persistent YoY declines.

What are the top exports from Indonesia to Thailand?

The top export is HS 27 (Mineral fuels, oils), accounting for 38.69% of total exports, reflecting Indonesia's role as a key raw material supplier.

What does Indonesia import from Thailand?

The top import is HS 87 (Vehicles), making up 14.15% of total imports, alongside machinery (HS 84) and agricultural products (HS 10, HS 17).

What is the trade balance between Indonesia and Thailand?

Indonesia recorded a $180M trade deficit with Thailand in Q2 2024, driven by higher imports of manufactured goods compared to exports of raw materials.