Indonesia - Thailand Trade 2024 Q1: Widening Deficit
Key Market Takeaways: Indonesia - Thailand Trade
The bilateral trade relationship between Indonesia and Thailand weakened in Q1 2024, marked by declining exports and a widening deficit.
- Economic Pulse: Indonesia posted a $940M trade deficit with Thailand, with total trade volume at $4.5B. Exports fell sharply (-10.56% YoY), while imports showed unstable demand (-25.76% YoY in March).
- Exchange Structure: Indonesia - Thailand trade statistics reveal a resource-for-food model: Indonesia supplies mineral fuels (38% of exports), while Thailand dominates with cereals (16% of imports).
- Strategic Interdependence: The partnership remains complementary but imbalanced, with Indonesia’s energy exports offset by reliance on Thai agricultural goods.
This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.
Indonesia-Thailand Trade Trend in Q1 2024
Indonesia Export Performance: Shipments to Thailand
- Total Volume: $1.78B in Q1 2024.
- Growth Trend & Context: YoY declines persisted across all months (-10.56% in Feb, -18.09% in Mar), signaling weakening demand or competitive shifts. No mitigating news to explain the downturn.
- Key Volatility: January saw a 31.88% MoM surge, but momentum reversed in February (-2.24%).
Indonesia Import Performance: Sourcing from Thailand
- Total Volume: $2.72B in Q1 2024.
- Growth Trend & Context: Mixed YoY performance (-2.02% in Jan, +11.06% in Feb, -25.76% in Mar), suggesting unstable supply or demand cycles. No news to contextualize fluctuations.
- Key Volatility: March recorded the sharpest MoM drop (-16.38%) and YoY contraction (-25.76%).
Indonesia - Thailand Trade Balance & Market Dynamics
- Net Position: Trade deficit of $940M (Imports exceeded exports).
- Relationship Status: Indonesia remains a net importer from Thailand, with reliance on Thai goods outweighing export capacity. The deficit widened compared to Q1 2023.
Indonesia Import Trend from Thailand 2024 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 881.19M | 11.41% | -2.02% |
| Feb | 1.00B | 13.68% | 11.06% |
| Mar | 837.65M | -16.38% | -25.76% |
| Total | 2.72B | - | - |
Indonesia Export Trend to Thailand 2024 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 597.66M | 31.88% | 4.07% |
| Feb | 584.24M | -2.24% | -10.56% |
| Mar | 602.24M | 3.08% | -18.09% |
| Total | 1.78B | - | - |
Get Historical Indonesia Thailand Trade Records
Indonesia-Thailand Top Trading Products in Q1 2024
Indonesia Export Profile: What Does Indonesia Sell to Thailand
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS 27 (Mineral fuels, oils) at 38.34% of total exports to Thailand.
- Demand Driver: Thailand likely uses these for industrial processing or energy needs, given the dominance of raw materials.
- Concentration: Trade is highly concentrated, with HS 27 alone accounting for over 38% of exports.
Indonesia Import Profile: What Does Indonesia Buy from Thailand
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS 10 (Cereals) at 15.76% of total imports from Thailand.
- Dependency Nature: Reflects food security dependency, as cereals are a staple agricultural product.
Indonesia - Thailand Trade Relationship Dynamics
- The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Food Complementarity. Indonesia exports mineral fuels (HS 27) while importing agricultural goods (HS 10) from Thailand.
- Value Chain Position: Indonesia holds a higher value-add position in energy exports, while Thailand supplies lower-complexity agricultural products.
Import Analysis by Product: Thailand to Indonesia (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 428.86M | 15.76% |
| 17 | 372.23M | 13.68% |
| 87 | 367.75M | 13.52% |
| 84 | 327.96M | 12.05% |
| 39 | 275.93M | 10.14% |
| 85 | 191.27M | 7.03% |
| 11 | 68.13M | 2.50% |
| 29 | 56.12M | 2.06% |
| 40 | 41.11M | 1.51% |
| 41 | 35.75M | 1.31% |
Export Analysis by Product: Indonesia to Thailand (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | 683.95M | 38.34% |
| 87 | 155.31M | 8.70% |
| 84 | 127.23M | 7.13% |
| 74 | 107.41M | 6.02% |
| 85 | 101.83M | 5.71% |
| 72 | 44.98M | 2.52% |
| 29 | 32.10M | 1.80% |
| 33 | 30.53M | 1.71% |
| 39 | 29.41M | 1.65% |
| 48 | 28.87M | 1.62% |
Check Detailed Indonesia-Thailand Trade HS Code Breakdown
Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations
Forecast for Indonesia - Thailand Trade
The Indonesia - Thailand trade relationship is likely to face continued volatility in Q2 2024, with Indonesia’s export decline signaling weakening demand for mineral fuels (HS 27) and Thailand’s unstable import patterns reflecting supply chain disruptions. The persistent trade deficit may widen further unless Indonesia diversifies its export basket or negotiates better terms for key commodities. Given Thailand’s reliance on Indonesian energy exports, traders should anticipate price sensitivity and potential renegotiations.
Strategic Moves for Traders & Policymakers
- Diversify Export Markets: Indonesian exporters must reduce dependence on mineral fuels by promoting secondary commodities like machinery or processed goods to Thailand, mitigating the risk of demand shocks.
- Secure Long-Term Cereals Contracts: Given Indonesia’s food security dependency on Thai cereals (HS 10), importers should lock in fixed-price agreements to hedge against future supply volatility.
- Optimize Logistics for Cost Efficiency: Both nations should streamline cross-border trade procedures, particularly for agricultural and energy shipments, to reduce delays and stabilize supply chains.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Indonesia - Thailand trade perform in 2024 Q1?
Indonesia's exports to Thailand totaled $1.78B in Q1 2024, with persistent YoY declines, while imports from Thailand reached $2.72B, showing mixed YoY performance.
What are the top exports from Indonesia to Thailand?
Mineral fuels and oils (HS 27) dominated Indonesia's exports to Thailand, accounting for 38.34% of total shipments.
What does Indonesia import from Thailand?
Cereals (HS 10) were the top import from Thailand, making up 15.76% of Indonesia's total imports.
What is the trade balance between Indonesia and Thailand?
Indonesia recorded a trade deficit of $940M with Thailand in Q1 2024, with the deficit widening compared to Q1 2023.
Indonesia - Thailand Trade 2024 Whole Year: Deficit Widens
Indonesia's trade deficit with Thailand hit $1.12B in 2024, fueled by mineral fuel exports and tech imports. Explore Indonesia Thailand trade trends and top trading products via yTrade data.
Indonesia - Thailand Trade 2024 Q2: Persistent Deficit
Indonesia's trade deficit with Thailand hits $180M in Q2 2024, driven by mineral fuel exports and vehicle imports. Explore Indonesia Thailand trade trends and top trading products via yTrade data.
