Indonesia - Thailand Trade 2025 Q3: Widening Deficit

Key Market Takeaways: Indonesia - Thailand Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Indonesia and Thailand remains stagnant in Q3 2025, with a widening deficit driven by Thailand's export surge.

• Economic Pulse: Indonesia runs a $179.13M trade deficit with Thailand, as imports ($818.42M) outpace exports ($639.29M). July’s 9.2% MoM import spike suggests short-term Thai supply chain advantages.
• Exchange Structure: Indonesia - Thailand trade statistics reveal a resource-for-tech swap: Indonesia supplies mineral fuels (25.31% of exports) while importing machinery (15.35% of imports).
• Strategic Interdependence: The partnership reflects classic complementarity—Thailand dominates high-value manufacturing while Indonesia feeds its industrial base with raw inputs.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Indonesia-Thailand Trade Trend in Q3 2025

Indonesia Export Performance: Shipments to Thailand

• Total Volume: $639.29M in Q3 2025.
• Growth Trend & Context: YoY growth flat (0.0%), reflecting stagnant demand or pricing parity. MoM dipped (-3.15%), signaling short-term softening.
• Key Volatility: July exports fell 3.15% MoM, the only data point available for the quarter.

Indonesia Import Performance: Sourcing from Thailand

• Total Volume: $818.42M in Q3 2025.
• Growth Trend & Context: YoY unchanged (0.0%), suggesting stable procurement. MoM surged 9.2% in July, indicating a possible inventory rebuild or preemptive ordering.
• Key Volatility: July imports spiked 9.2% MoM, marking the highest monthly value in the dataset.

Indonesia - Thailand Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade deficit of $179.13M (Imports > Exports).
• Relationship Status: Indonesia remains a net importer from Thailand, with July’s import surge widening the gap. No structural shifts evident in the data.

Indonesia Import Trend from Thailand 2025 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Indonesia Export Trend to Thailand 2025 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Indonesia Thailand Trade Records

Indonesia-Thailand Top Trading Products in Q3 2025

Indonesia Export Profile: What Does Indonesia Sell to Thailand

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS 27 (Mineral fuels, oils) at 25.31% of total exports to Thailand.
• Demand Driver: Thailand uses these for industrial processing, likely as energy inputs or raw materials for refining.
• Concentration: The trade is moderately concentrated, with the top commodity holding a quarter of the share.

Indonesia Import Profile: What Does Indonesia Buy from Thailand

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS 84 (Nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery) at 15.35% of total imports from Thailand.
• Dependency Nature: Critical technology dependency, as machinery and equipment dominate imports.

Indonesia - Thailand Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Indonesia exports raw materials (mineral fuels) and imports high-value machinery, indicating a classic resource-for-technology swap.
• Value Chain Position: Thailand holds the higher value-add position, supplying advanced machinery (HS 84, 85) while Indonesia provides energy and base metals (HS 27, 72).

Import Analysis by Product: Thailand to Indonesia (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Indonesia to Thailand (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Indonesia-Thailand Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Indonesia’s trade with Thailand is expected to remain stable in Q4 2025, with muted growth in exports and sustained import demand for Thai machinery. The persistent trade deficit may widen slightly if Thailand’s industrial sector continues its inventory rebuild, while Indonesia’s mineral fuel exports face flatlining demand. However, any uptick in regional energy prices or Thai manufacturing activity could revive export momentum. Traders should prepare for steady but unspectacular bilateral trade flows in the near term.

Strategic Moves

• Lock in Fuel Supply Agreements: Indonesian exporters of HS 27 (mineral fuels) should secure long-term contracts with Thai buyers to mitigate price volatility and stabilize revenue streams.
• Diversify Machinery Imports: Indonesian importers reliant on Thai HS 84 (machinery) must explore alternative suppliers in Vietnam or China to reduce dependency and improve bargaining power.
• Accelerate Export Promotion: The Indonesian government and trade bodies should prioritize marketing non-fuel exports (e.g., processed metals, textiles) to Thailand to rebalance the trade deficit.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Indonesia - Thailand trade perform in 2025 Q3?

Indonesia's exports to Thailand totaled $639.29M, with flat YoY growth (-3.15% MoM). Imports from Thailand hit $818.42M, showing 0.0% YoY growth but a 9.2% MoM surge.

What are the top exports from Indonesia to Thailand?

HS 27 (Mineral fuels, oils) dominated, accounting for 25.31% of Indonesia’s exports to Thailand, primarily used for industrial processing.

What does Indonesia import from Thailand?

HS 84 (Nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery) was the top import at 15.35%, reflecting Indonesia’s reliance on Thai technology and equipment.

What is the trade balance between Indonesia and Thailand?

Indonesia had a trade deficit of $179.13M with Thailand in Q3 2025, with July’s import spike widening the gap.