Indonesia - Singapore Trade 2025 Q3: Stagnant Growth, Persistent Deficit
Key Market Takeaways: Indonesia - Singapore Trade
The bilateral trade relationship between Indonesia and Singapore remains stable with stagnant growth in Q3 2025.
- Trade Deficit Persists: Indonesia recorded a $320M deficit (imports: $1.51B > exports: $1.19B), reflecting steady but unbalanced flows.
- Resource-for-Tech Exchange: Indonesia - Singapore trade statistics show a clear split: Indonesia supplies mineral fuels (23.95% of exports) while importing refined fuels (40.19% of imports) and high-tech machinery.
- Complementary Dependency: Singapore’s advanced manufacturing capabilities anchor the partnership, while Indonesia’s commodity exports fuel Singapore’s industrial base.
This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.
Indonesia-Singapore Trade Trend in Q3 2025
Indonesia Export Performance: Shipments to Singapore
- Total Volume: $1.19B in Q3 2025.
- Growth Trend & Context: YoY growth flat (0.0%), indicating stagnant demand or stable trade terms. No significant MoM volatility (July +7.75%).
- Key Volatility: July saw the highest monthly export value ($1.19B), with moderate MoM growth.
Indonesia Import Performance: Sourcing from Singapore
- Total Volume: $1.51B in Q3 2025.
- Growth Trend & Context: YoY growth flat (0.0%), suggesting steady supply chains. MoM uptick in July (+7.99%).
- Key Volatility: July imports peaked at $1.51B, reflecting consistent monthly demand.
Indonesia - Singapore Trade Balance & Market Dynamics
- Net Position: Trade deficit of $320M (Imports $1.51B > Exports $1.19B).
- Relationship Status: Indonesia remains a net importer from Singapore, with balanced YoY trends but persistent deficit.
Indonesia Import Trend from Singapore 2025 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul | 1.51B | 7.99% | 0.0% |
| Total | 1.51B | - | - |
Indonesia Export Trend to Singapore 2025 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul | 1.19B | 7.75% | 0.0% |
| Total | 1.19B | - | - |
Get Historical Indonesia Singapore Trade Records
Indonesia-Singapore Top Trading Products in Q3 2025
Indonesia Export Profile: What Does Indonesia Sell to Singapore
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is Mineral Fuels (HS 27) at 23.95% of total exports.
- Demand Driver: Singapore uses these for industrial processing and energy needs.
- Concentration: Trade is moderately concentrated, with the top 4 categories (HS 27, 71, 85, 84) accounting for 70.35% of exports.
Indonesia Import Profile: What Does Indonesia Buy from Singapore
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is Mineral Fuels (HS 27) at 40.19% of total imports.
- Dependency Nature: Reflects energy security dependency, likely refined petroleum products. High-tech imports (HS 90, 84, 85) suggest critical technology inputs for manufacturing.
Indonesia - Singapore Trade Relationship Dynamics
- The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Indonesia exports raw materials (fuels, metals) and imports refined fuels, machinery, and precision instruments.
- Value Chain Position: Singapore holds the higher value-add position, supplying advanced goods (HS 90, 84, 85) while Indonesia provides commodities (HS 27, 71).
Import Analysis by Product: Singapore to Indonesia (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | 607.80M | 40.19% |
| 90 | 188.77M | 12.48% |
| 84 | 185.43M | 12.26% |
| 85 | 136.31M | 9.01% |
| 29 | 79.68M | 5.27% |
| 39 | 75.06M | 4.96% |
| 38 | 27.43M | 1.81% |
| 33 | 25.26M | 1.67% |
| 40 | 24.06M | 1.59% |
| 88 | 21.12M | 1.40% |
Export Analysis by Product: Indonesia to Singapore (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | 284.56M | 23.95% |
| 71 | 259.25M | 21.82% |
| 85 | 163.97M | 13.80% |
| 84 | 128.13M | 10.78% |
| 80 | 42.55M | 3.58% |
| 75 | 29.73M | 2.50% |
| 38 | 25.63M | 2.16% |
| 73 | 23.92M | 2.01% |
| 21 | 19.71M | 1.66% |
| 89 | 17.23M | 1.45% |
Check Detailed Indonesia-Singapore Trade HS Code Breakdown
Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations
Forecast for Indonesia-Singapore Trade
Indonesia’s trade with Singapore is expected to remain stable in the near term, with modest growth potential in high-value sectors. The persistent trade deficit ($320M in Q3 2025) underscores Indonesia’s reliance on Singapore for refined fuels and advanced machinery, while its own exports remain commodity-driven. However, Singapore’s steady demand for Indonesian mineral fuels (23.95% of exports) and metals provides a stable floor. If global energy prices rise, Indonesia could see export revenue gains, but import costs may also climb, keeping the deficit intact. Traders should monitor Singapore’s tech-driven import appetite—any surge in demand for Indonesian raw materials could tilt the balance.
Strategic Moves for Traders & Policymakers
- Diversify Export Composition: Indonesia must reduce reliance on mineral fuels by boosting processed goods (e.g., refined metals, agro-industry products) to capture higher margins and mitigate Singapore’s value-chain dominance.
- Lock in Energy Contracts: Given the bilateral dependency on HS 27 (Mineral Fuels), Indonesian importers should secure long-term supply agreements with Singaporean refiners to hedge against price volatility.
- Accelerate Tech Transfer Partnerships: Indonesian manufacturers should negotiate joint ventures with Singaporean firms (especially in HS 84/85/90 sectors) to upgrade domestic production capabilities and reduce import dependency over time.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Indonesia - Singapore trade perform in 2025 Q3?
Indonesia's exports to Singapore totaled $1.19B, with flat YoY growth (0.0%), while imports from Singapore reached $1.51B, also showing no YoY change.
What are the top exports from Indonesia to Singapore?
Mineral Fuels (HS 27) lead at 23.95% of exports, followed by HS 71, 85, and 84, collectively accounting for 70.35% of total exports.
What does Indonesia import from Singapore?
Mineral Fuels (HS 27) dominate imports at 40.19%, alongside high-tech goods like machinery (HS 84, 85) and precision instruments (HS 90).
What is the trade balance between Indonesia and Singapore?
Indonesia recorded a trade deficit of $320M (imports > exports), maintaining its net importer status with stable YoY trends.
Indonesia - Singapore Trade 2025 Q2: Widening Deficit
Indonesia's trade deficit with Singapore hit $1.46B in Q2 2025, driven by mineral fuels trade. Explore Indonesia-Singapore trade trends and top trading products on yTrade.
Indonesia Small Cars HS870322 Export Data 2025 June Overview
Indonesia's Small Cars (HS Code 870322) exports in June 2025 rely heavily on the Philippines (32.37%), with Vietnam and Mexico as stable secondary markets, per yTrade data.
