Indonesia - Singapore Trade 2025 Q2: Widening Deficit
Key Market Takeaways: Indonesia - Singapore Trade
The bilateral trade relationship between Indonesia and Singapore showed volatile growth with a widening deficit in Q2 2025.
- Economic Pulse: Indonesia posted a $1.46B trade deficit ($3.59B exports vs. $5.05B imports), with export growth stalling in June after strong early-quarter gains.
- Exchange Structure: The trade is resource-for-resource, dominated by HS 27 (Mineral Fuels/Oils) in both directions—Indonesia exports crude while Singapore supplies refined products. Bilateral trade statistics reveal moderate concentration, with top 3 categories covering 63.46% of exports.
- Strategic Interdependence: Singapore’s refinery-heavy economy drives demand for Indonesian raw materials, while Indonesia relies on Singapore for higher-value processed fuels and machinery.
This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.
Indonesia-Singapore Trade Trend in Q2 2025
Indonesia Export Performance: Shipments to Singapore
- Total Volume: $3.59B in Q2 2025.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- YoY growth surged in April (+35.88%) and May (+34.61%), but flattened to 0% in June, signaling a sharp slowdown.
- No trade news to contextualize the volatility.
- Key Volatility: June saw a -15.05% MoM drop, the steepest decline in the quarter.
Indonesia Import Performance: Sourcing from Singapore
- Total Volume: $5.05B in Q2 2025.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- YoY growth turned negative in May (-10.65%) and June (0%), contrasting with April’s +11.67% rise.
- Key Volatility: April had the highest MoM jump (+21.49%), while June recorded the steepest fall (-16.58%).
Indonesia - Singapore Trade Balance & Market Dynamics
- Net Position: Trade deficit of $1.46B (Exports $3.59B vs. Imports $5.05B).
- Relationship Status: Indonesia remains a net importer from Singapore, with widening gaps in May and June.
Indonesia Import Trend from Singapore 2025 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr | 1.97B | 21.49% | 11.67% |
| May | 1.68B | -14.9% | -10.65% |
| Jun | 1.40B | -16.58% | 0.0% |
| Total | 5.05B | - | - |
Indonesia Export Trend to Singapore 2025 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr | 1.19B | 7.4% | 35.88% |
| May | 1.30B | 8.97% | 34.61% |
| Jun | 1.10B | -15.05% | 0.0% |
| Total | 3.59B | - | - |
Get Historical Indonesia Singapore Trade Records
Indonesia-Singapore Top Trading Products in Q2 2025
Indonesia Export Profile: What Does Indonesia Sell to Singapore
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS 27 (Mineral Fuels, Oils) at 29.59% of total exports to Singapore.
- Demand Driver: Singapore uses these for industrial processing and energy needs, given its refinery-heavy economy.
- Concentration: Trade is moderately concentrated, with the top 3 categories (HS 27, 85, 71) accounting for 63.46% of exports.
Indonesia Import Profile: What Does Indonesia Buy from Singapore
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS 27 (Mineral Fuels, Oils) at 48.32% of total imports from Singapore.
- Dependency Nature: Reflects energy security dependency, likely refined petroleum products re-exported to Indonesia.
Indonesia - Singapore Trade Relationship Dynamics
- The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Resource Trade, with both sides exchanging mineral fuels (HS 27) but in different forms (crude vs. refined).
- Value Chain Position: Singapore holds higher value-add, exporting refined fuels (HS 27) and machinery (HS 84, 85), while Indonesia supplies raw materials (HS 27, 71).
Import Analysis by Product: Singapore to Indonesia (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | 2.44B | 48.32% |
| 84 | 523.49M | 10.36% |
| 90 | 461.12M | 9.13% |
| 71 | 296.57M | 5.87% |
| 85 | 286.13M | 5.66% |
| 29 | 257.51M | 5.10% |
| 39 | 219.21M | 4.34% |
| 38 | 72.58M | 1.44% |
| 33 | 70.50M | 1.40% |
| 88 | 45.99M | 0.91% |
Export Analysis by Product: Indonesia to Singapore (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | 1.06B | 29.59% |
| 85 | 685.37M | 19.08% |
| 71 | 531.26M | 14.79% |
| 84 | 292.61M | 8.14% |
| 38 | 133.12M | 3.71% |
| 73 | 122.89M | 3.42% |
| 80 | 105.65M | 2.94% |
| 24 | 67.17M | 1.87% |
| 21 | 42.45M | 1.18% |
| 87 | 39.98M | 1.11% |
Check Detailed Indonesia-Singapore Trade HS Code Breakdown
Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations
Forecast for Indonesia-Singapore Trade
Indonesia’s trade with Singapore is likely to face near-term volatility due to the sharp June slowdown in exports and widening deficit. However, the underlying resource-for-resource exchange model—crude fuels from Indonesia for refined products from Singapore—will sustain long-term demand. Traders should expect Q3 2025 to mirror Q2’s erratic swings unless policy interventions stabilize energy flows. The Indonesia-Singapore trade forecast hinges on Singapore’s refinery capacity and Indonesia’s ability to diversify beyond raw material exports.
Strategic Moves for Traders & Policymakers
- Lock in Fuel Supply Contracts: Indonesian importers must secure long-term agreements with Singaporean refiners to hedge against price spikes and supply chain disruptions.
- Diversify Export Mix: Indonesia should aggressively promote non-fuel exports (e.g., machinery, electronics) to reduce reliance on HS 27 and narrow the trade deficit.
- Optimize Logistics for Refined Imports: Given Singapore’s role as a refining hub, Indonesian buyers must streamline customs clearance and storage for HS 27 imports to avoid June-like MoM drops.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Indonesia - Singapore trade perform in 2025 Q2?
Indonesia exported $3.59B to Singapore, with strong YoY growth in April-May but a sharp slowdown in June. Imports totaled $5.05B, showing negative YoY growth in May-June after April’s rise.
What are the top exports from Indonesia to Singapore?
HS 27 (Mineral Fuels, Oils) led at 29.59% of exports, followed by HS 85 and HS 71. The top 3 categories accounted for 63.46% of total exports.
What does Indonesia import from Singapore?
HS 27 (Mineral Fuels, Oils) dominated imports at 48.32%, reflecting Indonesia’s dependency on refined petroleum products from Singapore.
What is the trade balance between Indonesia and Singapore?
Indonesia had a trade deficit of $1.46B in Q2 2025, with the gap widening in May and June.
Indonesia - Singapore Trade 2025 Q1: Deficit Widens
Indonesia's trade deficit with Singapore hit $1.63B in Q1 2025, fueled by mineral fuels trade. Explore Indonesia Singapore trade trends & top trading products via yTrade data.
Indonesia - Singapore Trade 2025 Q3: Stagnant Growth, Persistent Deficit
Indonesia Singapore trade trend shows stagnant growth in Q3 2025, with a $320M deficit. Key Indonesia Singapore top trading products include mineral fuels and high-tech machinery. Data sourced from yTrade.
